Claudio Piani is currently working on a paper which attempts to provide a measure of
model skill compared to recent climate (this work is in parallel to the sorts of things David Sexton has been doing at the Hadley Centre for the QUMP experiment, and similar to some of the work that has been undertaken as part of CMIP - 2).
Not exact matches
Posters include verbs like: question, hypothesize, experiment, record, organize, and analyze data, make conclusions, observe, classify,
compare, measure, predict, infer, communicate, estimate, practice safety
skills, and make
models!
Two groups of students, those who used real equipment and those who used a computer simulation that explicitly
modeled electron flow, were
compared in terms of their mastery of physics concepts and
skills with real equipment.
We must take measures to ensure intentional opportunities for students to engage in visual interpretation with increased processing time for ELs, deliberate
modeling and use of science genres to practice scientific communication
skills, and whole class dialogue so students can evaluate their own justifications as they listen and
compare their ideas with others.
Watch one way that a teacher focuses children on the thinking
skill compare as she develops the geometric concept of quadrilaterals with phase II instruction in the explicit teaching
model which is aligned with several of the teacher's Common Core aligned state standards.
All four studies demonstrated positive and significant gains in academic achievement and social
skills for students involved in the RTL program as
compared to students not receiving instruction in the RTL
model.
These templates create repeatable ways of teaching content while
modeling thinking
skills such as
compare / contrast, cause and effect, and problem solving.
«The
skill of the
model is examined by
comparing its output to sea ice thickness data gathered during the last two decades.
For instance, if some analyses of the
model ensemble tries to weight
models based on some their
skill compared to observations, it is obviously important to know whether a
model group tuned their
model to achieve a good result or whether it arose naturally from the the basic physics.
For the 20th Century,
models show
skill for the long - term changes in global and continental - scale temperatures — but only if natural and anthropogenic forcings are used —
compared to an expectation of no change.
Julie Hargreaves has a new paper out on this precise question and shows that the early
model simulations had substantial
skill compared to any naive
model.
I note in passing the Wiley site is currently down for maintenance so Hargreaves is not accessible — however from the diagram that can be seen it looks as though the null hypothesis was «no change in temperature» rather than showing it «had substantial
skill compared to any naive
model.
Skill or accuracy of the AER
model compares favorably to that of the observed winter AO and ENSO especially for the Eastern US and large portions of Northern Eurasia.
In more recent research, Schröder and others find that forecasts based on sea ice concentration and melt onset have similar to higher
skill values
compared to the melt pond
model.
As we have discussed, there is a
skill required in
comparing models to observations in ways that are most productive, and that requires a certain familiarity with the history of climate and weather
models.
I'm not sure I understand — the calculation of
skill compares two
models based on RMSE of their forecasts.
But if we're going to
compare trends in a thread of blog comments to a «seventh grader» naive
model, then yes, in this type of forum, it becomes valid... and Hansen's
skill becomes spot on.
While its not entirely fair to remove a
modeled event from the record, it's also not at all fair to
compare skill over such a short time frame, when volcanic and other effectively random events can skew either path (observational or
modeled) so greatly.
First, in dealing with
skill you are
comparing the forecast from the
model in question with that of a naive
model, which almost ipso facto will be a statistical
model.
When
compared to the Scharf / HAS / 7th grader
model (i.e. a simple straight line with a slope defined by the 1979 - 1988 trend), it beats it in predictive
skill, and wallops it in hindcasting, wherein the naive
model with a slope of 0.5 C / 30 years predicts that in 1700 the temperature of the planet was 5C cooler than 2000, and in 1400 the temperature of the planet was 10C cooler, and yes, keep on going.
In addition, at 6 months after intervention, intervention youths and parents (
compared with control) demonstrated higher levels of condom - use
skills, 17 which were measured by the Condom Use Skills Checklist5 that operationalizes the steps involved in correct application and removal of a condom on a
skills, 17 which were measured by the Condom Use
Skills Checklist5 that operationalizes the steps involved in correct application and removal of a condom on a
Skills Checklist5 that operationalizes the steps involved in correct application and removal of a condom on a
model.