Sentences with phrase «model temperature predictions»

A paper led by James Risbey (2014) in Nature Climate Change takes a clever approach to evaluating how accurate climate model temperature predictions have been while getting around the noise caused by natural cycles.

Not exact matches

In Chicago, the Park District will use a new high - tech system that uses computer software to give real - time predictions of bacteria counts based on such factors as water temperature, modeling of the lake bottom and wave action monitored by buoys.

The researchers then used a mathematical model that combined the conflict data with temperature and rainfall projections through 2050 to come up with predictions about the likelihood of climate - related violence in the future.

Obtaining accurate sea surface temperatures is important for a range of applications — from weather prediction to climate modeling to understanding marine ecosystem fluctuations.

Long - term data from a wind farm at San Gorgonio, California, confirmed his earlier model predictions: surface temperatures behind the wind turbines were higher than in front during the night, but as much as 4 °C lower by day.

In his new paper, Lovejoy applies the same approach to the 15 - year period after 1998, during which globally averaged temperatures remained high by historical standards, but were somewhat below most predictions generated by the complex computer models used by scientists to estimate the effects of greenhouse - gas emissions.

It is also argued that experiment clearly indicates that interlayer interactions strongly affect the superconducting transition temperature, Tc, consistent with the fact that no theoretical calculations on two - dimensional Hubbard models have resulted in the prediction of high transition temperatures, and that anyon models are not favored by experiment.

The UI study showed that adding thermometer data, which captures clinically relevant symptoms (temperature) likely even before a person goes to the doctor, to simple forecasting models, improved predictions of flu activity.

The new findings of successful multi-year drought / fire predictions are based on a series of computer modeling experiments, using the state - of - the - art earth system model, the most detailed data on current ocean temperature and salinity conditions, and the climate responses to natural and human - linked radiative forcing.

If this interpretation of the observations is correct, it could confirm a 30 - year - old prediction of the cosmic inflation theory: that the simplest models of inflation can generate an observable level of gravitational waves, comparable to density or temperature fluctuations in the early universe.

The predictions of winds and temperatures in these models are uncertain, and probably underestimate the extent of cold winters.

13 - Feb - 2007 Antarctic Temperatures Disagree with Climate Model Predictions Ohio State University http://www.newswise.com/articles/view/527313/

Bromwich said the disagreement between climate model predictions and the snowfall and temperature records doesn't necessarily mean that the models are wrong.

The kinder, gentler model from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in the United Kingdom estimated a wetter, warmer future: Rainfall may increase 20 percent to 25 percent, mean annual temperatures could increase 2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2030 and 4 degrees by 2100.

The differences between the «natural forcing» model predictions and measured global temperatures were used to determine AGHG forcing functions for their final climate prediction model.

Due to the complexity of physical processes, climate models have uncertainties in global temperature prediction.

In the same paper in which he made his often - quoted «prediction» that doubling the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 would lead to an increase of 10 °C in surface mean temperature, F. Möller makes an almost never quoted disclaimer to the effect that a 1 percent increase in general cloudiness in the same model would completely mask this effect.

To say that this would not alter the way we look at either temperature changes or model predictions would be incorrect.

p.s. To compare to Vahrenholt's forecast, here's a comparison of earlier model projections of global temperature for the IPCC (prediction with the CMIP3 model ensemble used in the 4th IPCC assessment report, published in 2007) with the actual changes in temperature (the four colored curves).

The magnitude it actually had actually risen, how different these temperatures were from the 1940s, the conflict between model prediction / theory and observation, etc, were the issues the satellite data raised.

Models actually predict that the interior of the ice sheets should gain mass because of the increased snowfall that goes along with warmer temperatures, and recent observations actually agree with those predictions.

When I look at the comparisons of temperature change vs. model prediction that you showed us, I see something different from what I think that you see.

For example, Kenyan malarial epidemiologist Andrew Githeko was targeted a decade ago after his model - based predictions of the spread of malaria into the highlands of East Africa, where it is currently expanding but was historically absent due to the temperature limitations that altitude brings.

Also what about publishing how modelled predictions from 5 or 10 years ago compare with measured temperatures?

While the definition of a forcing may appear a little arbitrary, the reason why radiative forcing is used is because it (conveniently) gives quite good predictions of what happens in models to the global mean temperature once the climate system has fully responded to the change.

Global temperature has in recent years increased more slowly than before, but this is within the normal natural variability that always exists, and also within the range of predictions by climate models — even despite some cool forcing factors such as the deep solar minimum not included in the models.

«A Comparison of Tropical Temperature Trends With Model Predictions» http://uahnews.uah.edu/newsread.php?newsID=994

that climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate predictions about what will happen in the future.that century - scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.»

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.

The final part of Zycher's argument pertains to the divergence between climate models» predictions of climate change and temperature observations.

So using the lower sensitivity of the current model of 2.7 C as I understand it (at least for «fast feedbacks») his predictions match observed temperatures more closely.

I suspect that it looked OK in your view or you didn't check; «the paper i cited talks of the hiatus in global temperatures for the past 20 years or so, that the Little Ice Age was global in extent, and that climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate predictions about what will happen in the future.

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.

Because the new precise observations agree with existing assessments of water vapor's impact, researchers are more confident than ever in model predictions that Earth's leading greenhouse gas will contribute to a temperature rise of a few degrees by the end of the century.

The models are gauged against the following observation - based datasets: Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP; Xie and Arkin, 1997) for precipitation (1980 — 1999), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40 - year reanalysis (ERA40; Uppala et al., 2005) for sea level pressure (1980 — 1999) and Climatic Research Unit (CRU; Jones et al., 1999) for surface temperature (1961 — 1990).

There are many who will not like this recent paper published in Nature Communications on principle as it talks of the hiatus in global temperatures for the past 20 years or so, that the Little Ice Age was global in extent, and that climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate predictions about what will happen in the future.

This prediction failure has been due to the climate models assuming that minimum temperatures (nighttime temps) are driven by atmospheric CO2 levels, resulting in predicted minimum temperatures that are too high.

Levine, R.C., Turner, A.G., Marathayil, D. and Martin, G.M. (accepted Dec 2012), The role of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5 model simulations and future predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, in press, Climate Dynamics., DOI 10.1007 / s00382 -012-1656-x link

Another is temperature predictions from his computer model show (Figure 3).

Douglass, D. H., Christy, J. R., Pearson, B. D. and Singer, S. F. (2008), A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions.

Comparing model predictions of GHG - induced warming with recent natural temperature fluctuations also indicates the potential scale of man - made climate change.Early modelling experiments focused on the total long - term change resulting from a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) levels.

Well since the upward trend was well established, and his whole «CO2 causes global warming» theory would be falsified by any other result (constant or decreasing temperatures) it is hardly surprising that Hansen's models would produce predictions of increasing temperature.

If I'm not mistaken, the model predictions average temperature over land and sea.

Scaling factors derived from detection analyses can be used to scale predictions of future change by assuming that the fractional error in model predictions of global mean temperature change is constant (Allen et al., 2000, 2002; Allen and Stainforth, 2002; Stott and Kettleborough, 2002).

And, in case it slipped your notice, NONE of the climate models have been correct in their predictions of 21st century temperature trends.

Prediction: The AGW models will mis - estimate temperature, CO2 levels, sea level and sea ice extent with increasing severity.

Sea surface temperature (SST) measured from Earth Observation Satellites in considerable spatial detail and at high frequency, is increasingly required for use in the context of operational monitoring and forecasting of the ocean, for assimilation into coupled ocean - atmosphere model systems and for applications in short - term numerical weather prediction and longer term climate change detection.

Speaking of Hansen's 1988 predictions and GCMs in general, Demetris Koutsoyiannis» paper has been published, evaluating 18 years of climate model predictions of temperature and precipitation at 8 locales distributed worldwide.

Additionally, the observed surface temperature changes over the past decade are within the range of model predictions (Figure 6) and decadal periods of flat temperatures during an overall long - term warming trend are predicted by climate models (Easterling & Wehner 2009).

But that raises the question: If the temperature plateau continued for another 10 years, would that be enough to cast doubt on the climate computer model predictions?