Sentences with phrase «model the temperature rise»

If one were to model the temperature rise in the years 1974 - 1999 it would be very easy to overestimate aerosol cooling and so to overestimate the value of CO2 climate sensitivity.

Within this context, it would be helpful to model the temperature rise through to say 2200, 2300, 2400 and 2500 so that we get a sense of whether we are on a path to extinguish life on earth in a historically speaking, a short period of time.

Not exact matches

The models are not in good agreement with observations — even if they appear to fit the temperature rise over the last 150 years very well.

Despite the «science is settled» and «consensus» claims of the global - warming alarmists, the fear of catastrophic consequences from rising temperatures has been driven not so much by good science as by computer models and adroit publicity fed to a compliant media.

More complicated feedback - response models that use a lumped feedback parameter suggest that the same doubling could cause average atmospheric temperatures to rise by less than 2 F °.

Climate models predict that as global temperatures rise over the next seven decades, subtropical regions like the American Southwest will get drier, while more northern areas, including much of Canada, will get wetter.

Meanwhile, the new study suggests the effect will intensify in the future with continued climate change, based on computer models that attempt to project how rising temperatures would affect the Arctic's chemical reservoirs.

However, the majority of the models predicted a temperature rise roughly midway between the two extremes.

Based on modeling results by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which predicted that Pacific Ocean temperatures would rise by 1 degree Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) over the next 50 years, a Canadian and U.S. team of scientists examined the distributional changes of 28 species of fish including salmon, herring, certain species of sharks, anchovies, sardines and more northern fish like pollock.

Until now, even climatologists have assumed that their models simulate different temperature rises because they respond with different degrees of sensitivity to increased amounts of solar energy in the atmosphere.

Planning meetings for the Global Seed Vault in Norway spawned the idea of looking at average summer temperatures, which climate models can project relatively reliably and which have a large impact on crop yields — between 2.5 and 16 percent less wheat, corn, soy or other crops are produced for every 1.8 — degree F (1 — degree C) rise.

Climate models have always offered a range of possible temperature rises, but it turns out the ones that best fit what's happened so far all predict even greater warming

This phenomenon makes it more difficult for the metal line to cool, and therefore its temperature rises to values that can not be explained with present day models.

But climate models predict reductions in dissolved oxygen in all oceans as average global air and sea temperatures rise, and this may be the main driver of what is happening there, she says.

NOAA's Coral Reef Watch uses satellite observations of sea surface temperatures and modeling to monitor and forecast when water temperatures rise enough to cause bleaching.

A long - term rise in temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions made the hot weather 20 times more likely, modelling suggests.

Now Vivien Parmentier of the Côte d'Azur Observatory in Nice, France, and colleagues have a model that suggests the snow turns to a gas again as it falls and pressure and temperature rise.

Conservative climate models predict that average temperatures in the US Midwest will rise by 4 °C over the next century.

Udall and Overpeck found all current climate models agree that temperatures in the Colorado River Basin will continue rising if the emission of greenhouse gases is not curbed.

The resulting outburst of methane produced effects similar to those predicted by current models of global climate change: a sudden, extreme rise in temperatures, combined with acidification of the oceans.

However, in the 2013 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the IPCC concluded that «Modelling indicates that SRM methods, if realizable, have the potential to substantially offset a global temperature rise, but they would also modify the global water cycle, and would not reduce ocean acidification.»

It turned out that a doubling of carbon dioxide had always gone along with a 3 °C temperature rise, give or take a degree or two — a striking confirmation of the computer models, from entirely independent evidence.

«Both the physical ocean and the life within it are shifting much more rapidly than our models predicted for the Arctic,» Alter notes, adding that temperatures there are rising twice as fast as everywhere else on the planet.

That means existing climate change models predicting the effects of rising temperatures and heat stress on maize may be counting on yield boosts that aren't coming, and overestimating how much our corn fields will yield in the future.

They found no significant trends, but when they put the data into computer models and simulated a rise in temperature — as predicted through global warming — the results were striking.

Using high - resolution cloud models, researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in Norrköping and the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen analysed how heavy rainfall is affected by rising temperatures.

Meanwhile, a team of climate scientists who have been calculating how the pledges to cut emissions translate into temperature rises over the coming century, and were waiting for the final text to update their models, were left baffled.

USGS looked at the likely effects of climate change using two models, one where the temperature rises 2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2099 and the other where it climbs 7 degrees by century's end.

But a pair of British scientists think it may be the perfect model for how vulnerable animals will go extinct in the face of rising temperatures.

Such collaboration is especially important, Young said, given climate models for the area, which predict rising temperatures, «megadroughts,» and brief, severe floods.

A release of 50 billion tonnes of methane would bring forward by 15 to 35 years the date at which global temperature rise exceeds 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels, the model shows, with most of the damage in the poorer parts of Africa, Asia and South America.

Current national commitments to cut greenhouse gases would likely allow average global temperatures to rise by 3.5 °C by 2100, suggest new modeling results released today.

The international team of co-authors, led by Peter Clark of Oregon State University, generated new scenarios for temperature rise, glacial melting, sea - level rise and coastal flooding based on state - of - the - art climate and ice sheet models.

However, DiNezio's own modelling work also suggests that ENSO will continue in a warmed world: although the rise in temperatures pushes the Pacific towards a permanent El Niño, the ocean pushes back.

«When we included projected Antarctic wind shifts in a detailed global ocean model, we found water up to 4 °C warmer than current temperatures rose up to meet the base of the Antarctic ice shelves,» said lead author Dr Paul Spence from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS).

Williams and his team used computer models to predict what will happen to the world's ecosystems as temperatures rise.

When carbon dioxide levels were doubled in the modified model, temperatures rose by at least a quarter more than they did when the unmodified model was used — to at least 5 °C (9 °F).

On average, the models predicted an 11 percent increase in CAPE in the U.S. per degree Celsius rise in global average temperature by the end of the 21st century.

On the other hand, statistical analysis of the past century's hurricanes and computer modeling of a warmer climate, nudged along by greenhouse gases, does indicate that rising ocean temperatures could fuel hurricanes that are more intense.

Because the models predict little average precipitation increase nationwide over this period, the product of CAPE and precipitation gives about a 12 percent rise in cloud - to - ground lightning strikes per degree in the contiguous U.S., or a roughly 50 percent increase by 2100 if Earth sees the expected 4 - degree Celsius increase (7 degrees Fahrenheit) in temperature.

According to leading climate models, all the added CO2 could trigger an average global temperature rise of up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.

Recent models indicate that the rain comes in twoforms: a constant, light drizzle over most of the surface, adding up totwo inches or so of precipitation per year, and occasional cloudburststhat carve out river channels and fill the lakes, only to evaporateagain when temperatures rise.

«If we're predicting a 29 - degree optimum and another model is predicting a 35 - degree optimum, the other model will say that climate change will increase transmission,» she said in a Stanford - issued media release, adding that if local temperatures are already near optimal temperature, infections may decline as temperatures rise.

Those models will look at impacts such as regional average temperature change, sea - level rise, ocean acidification, and the sustainability of soils and water as well as the impacts of invasive species on food production and human health.

Rather, the models are constructed to show that climate change and rising temperatures increase conditions that are conducive to the transmission of malaria.

Climate models such as the one by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predict that with rising temperatures, the conditions that favor insect vectors such as the mosquito will allow disease transmission to become more prevalent.

«Using observations and model simulations, we've demonstrated that rising Pacific - Atlantic temperatures were the major driver of rapid Arctic warming in the early 20th century.»

Despite the strong warming trend of the past 15 years, worldwide temperatures have risen less than models predict, given the build - up of carbon dioxide in the air to 25 per cent above pre-industrial levels.

Given the inverse relationship observed between their values, it has been possible to determine the additional area of vegetation needed (in this case of green roofs) necessary to reduce the temperature by the same amount as it is predicted to rise in different climate change models for Seville.

In the past decade, Arctic temperatures have risen faster than models predicted and the ice has vanished faster.