Model tuning refers to the process of adjusting and refining a model to make it perform better. It involves changing the settings or parameters of a model to improve its accuracy and effectiveness in solving a specific problem.
Full definition
The basic thrust of the article is that climate modeling groups are making significant efforts to increase the transparency and availability of
model tuning processes for the next round of intercomparisons (CMIP6).
This an accepted method
of model tuning called inversion; however, inversion can produce non unique solutions.
To establish the range of sea level rise resulting from the choice of different SRES scenarios, results for thermal expansion and land - ice change from
simple models tuned to several AOGCMs are used (as in Section F. 3 for temperature).
Some of the above errors in clouds compensate to provide the global mean balance in radiation required
by model tuning.»
The median and range of their results is different to what the IPCC derived using a
single model tuned to sensitivities from the GCMs.
For other variables (precipitation, sea ice loss), statistics (e.g., the mean state, extremes) or depending on the spatial scale you are interested in model performance varies and the degree to
which model tuning can be accomplished while still maintaining a reasonable climatology and consistency with observations is limited.
This
manual model tuning process uses only a fraction of the available data, and it does so inefficiently, leading to inconsistent tuning and compensating errors among tuned model components.
I will then discuss the econometric forecasts they are founded on, the assumptions about CO2 sensitivity and feedback processes, and
finally model tuning and their ability to match history.
I'm also currently working on
model tuning via algorithmic tools, developing a work flow controller for ensemble forecasting and contribute some time to teach about ensemble forecasting.
Bixby and Alexa are setting the stage for wider support in India and Google could come in with both an English
language model tuned for Indian accents and Hindi support.
Eventually, the researchers would like to get
their models tuned up to do hazard assessments.
«As Earth continues to warm, it may be approaching a critical climate threshold beyond which rapid and potentially permanent — at least on a human time - scale — changes not anticipated by climate
models tuned to modern conditions may occur,» the report says.
Such studies can reasonably account for the observed variations as a response to solar and volcanic forcing (and a few secondary things) with energy balance climate
models tuned to have a climate sensitivity equivalent to 2.5 C per doubling of CO2.
The highlight of the handling upgrades is the standard adaptive air suspension with its specific S -
model tuning.
Hyundai revealed a special version of the Genesis sedan,
a model tuned in partnership with Toca Marketing.
There is an interesting news article ($) in Science this week by Paul Voosen on the increasing amount of transparency on climate
model tuning.
You interpret very good model - observation agreement in hindcasts as evidence for
model tuning, and that the exceptional agreement means they must be wrong (post # 31).
It's not like there isn't anything climate - y to talk about (sea ice minimums, extreme events, climate
model tunings, past «hyperthermals»... etc.).
Figure 2: From IPCC TAR, historical anthropogenic global mean temperature change and future changes for the six illustrative SRES scenarios using a simple climate
model tuned to seven AOGCMs.
Because of the growing awareness of actual global temperatures data grossly underperforming vs. the IPCC models i.e., forecasts / predictions are not just wrong but also invalidate
the model tuning to CO2 there is a risk that IPCC and the climate consensus have «bet the company» therefore they must do everything to finally get a deal signed at the COP21 summit at Paris - Le Bourget.
The shaded region of AR4 figure 10.26, reproduced in Steve's Figure 4, is described in the caption as «The dark shaded areas in the bottom temperature panel represent the mean ± 1 standard deviation for the 19
model tunings.»
I was interviewed recently for a news article on climate
model tuning, which said:... nearly every model has been calibrated precisely to the 20th century climate records — otherwise it would have ended up in the trash.
Note that the Russians validated
their model tuning against observations — I think this is a major breakthrough.
Temperature changes from 1990 to 2100 and from 1990 to 2350, for the simple climate
model tuned to seven AOGCMs, are shown in Figure 9.17.
The conversations around these issues got into multiple connected areas, including aerosol forcings, observational uncertainty, climate
model tuning and independence, the nature of probability, Bayesian updating, detection and attribution, and internal variability.