Sentences with phrase «modeled global ocean temperature»

Hocker's Figure 2 shows a comparison of the observed and modeled global ocean temperature anomaly:

Not exact matches

But climate models predict reductions in dissolved oxygen in all oceans as average global air and sea temperatures rise, and this may be the main driver of what is happening there, she says.

The models must track how carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases cycle through the whole system — how the gases interact with plant life, oceans, the atmosphere — and how this influences overall global temperatures.

The resulting outburst of methane produced effects similar to those predicted by current models of global climate change: a sudden, extreme rise in temperatures, combined with acidification of the oceans.

However, in the 2013 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the IPCC concluded that «Modelling indicates that SRM methods, if realizable, have the potential to substantially offset a global temperature rise, but they would also modify the global water cycle, and would not reduce ocean acidification.»

Their findings, based on output from four global climate models of varying ocean and atmospheric resolution, indicate that ocean temperature in the U.S. Northeast Shelf is projected to warm twice as fast as previously projected and almost three times faster than the global average.

«When we included projected Antarctic wind shifts in a detailed global ocean model, we found water up to 4 °C warmer than current temperatures rose up to meet the base of the Antarctic ice shelves,» said lead author Dr Paul Spence from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS).

«By prescribing the effects of human - made climate change and observed global ocean temperatures, our model can reproduce the observed shifts in weather patterns and wildfire occurrences.»

Climate models show the absence of a global atmospheric circulation pattern which bolsters high ocean temperatures key to coral bleaching

The researchers paired MIT's global circulation model — which simulates physical phenomena such as ocean currents, temperatures, and salinity — with an ecosystem model that simulates the behavior of 96 species of phytoplankton.

The diagnostics, which are used to compare model - simulated and observed changes, are often simple temperature indices such as the global mean surface temperature and ocean mean warming (Knutti et al., 2002, 2003) or the differential warming between the SH and NH (together with the global mean; Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001).

Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations oh hemispheric temperature and global ocean heat content.

But I would suppose that equilibrium climate sensitivity [background] and even global mean surface temperature on a decadal scale could be better nailed down by model pruning and better ocean data.

Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperatures and global ocean heat content

A new paper closely examining ocean temperatures throws a twist into understanding of the pattern of global warming seen in the 20th century, but does it throw established concepts and climate models into question?

Kosaka and Xie made global climate simulations in which they inserted specified observed Pacific Ocean temperatures; they found that the model simulated well the observed global warming slowdown or «hiatus,» although this experiment does not identify the cause of Pacific Ocean temperature trends.

A model of the imperfections is needed to enable the compensation, and the teams who provide values of global temperature each use a different model for the imperfections (i.e. they make different selections of which points to use, they provide different weightings for e.g. effects over ocean and land, and so on).

This is particularly significant because many climate - change alarmists conjecture that the reason global temperatures of the 21st century are lower than their faulty climate models originally predicted is that the Earth's oceans are absorbing all the excess heat.

By comparing modelled and observed changes in such indices, which include the global mean surface temperature, the land - ocean temperature contrast, the temperature contrast between the NH and SH, the mean magnitude of the annual cycle in temperature over land and the mean meridional temperature gradient in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004) estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the warming observed between 1946 and 1995 whereas warming between 1896 and 1945 is explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variability.

Forest 2006, along with several other climate sensitivity studies, used simulations by the MIT 2D model of zonal surface and upper - air temperatures and global deep - ocean temperature, the upper - air data being least influential.

[12] Magne Aldrin et al., «Bayesian Estimation of Climate Sensitivity Based on a Simple Climate Model Fitted to Observations of Hemispheric Temperatures and Global Ocean Heat Content,» Environmetrics, Vol.

6, No. 6 (June 2013), pp. 415 — 416; Magne Aldrin et al., «Bayesian Estimation of Climate Sensitivity Based on a Simple Climate Model Fitted to Observations of Hemispheric Temperatures and Global Ocean Heat Content,» Environmetrics, Vol.

«By prescribing the effects of man - made climate change and observed global ocean temperatures, our model can reproduce the observed shifts in weather patterns and wildfire occurrences.»

The models used by the IPCC do not take into account or show the most important ocean oscillations which clearly do affect global temperatures, namely, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the ENSO.

Its seven chapters discuss the global climate models, forcings and feedbacks, solar forcing of the climate, and observations on temperature, the icecaps, the water cycle and oceans, and weather.»

It seemsthe observed increase in trade winds lead to the surfacing of cooler waters in the Eastern Pacific ocean and this phenomenon is found by models to cause global average temperatures to cool.

GCMs, by their global nature, are intended to model global climate, whose temperature is strongly dominated by the oceans.

For example, Kosaka and Xie showed than when the El Niño - related changes in Pacific ocean temperature are entered into a model, it not only reproduced the global surface warming over the past 15 years but it also accurately reproduced regional and seasonal changes in surface temperatures.

Comparison of global lower troposphere temperature anomaly over the oceans (blue line) to a model based on the first derivative of atmospheric CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa (red line).

Figure 1: Global temperatures from models are calculated using air temperatures above the land surface and also from the upper few meters of the ocean.

- ARAMATE (The reconstruction of ecosystem and climate variability in the north Atlantic region using annually resolved archives of marine and terrestrial ecosystems)- CLIM - ARCH-DATE (Integration of high resolution climate archives with archaeological and documentary evidence for the precise dating of maritime cultural and climatic events)- CLIVASH2k (Climate variability in Antarctica and Southern Hemisphere in the past 2000 years)- CoralHydro2k (Tropical ocean hydroclimate and temperature from coral archives)- Global T CFR (Global gridded temperature reconstruction method comparisons)- GMST reconstructions - Iso2k (A global synthesis of Common Era hydroclimate using water isotopes)- MULTICHRON (Constraining modeled multidecadal climate variability in the Atlantic using proxies derived from marine bivalve shells and coralline algae)- PALEOLINK (The missing link in the Past — Downscaling paleoclimatic Earth System Models)- PSR2k (Proxy Surrogate ReconstructiGlobal T CFR (Global gridded temperature reconstruction method comparisons)- GMST reconstructions - Iso2k (A global synthesis of Common Era hydroclimate using water isotopes)- MULTICHRON (Constraining modeled multidecadal climate variability in the Atlantic using proxies derived from marine bivalve shells and coralline algae)- PALEOLINK (The missing link in the Past — Downscaling paleoclimatic Earth System Models)- PSR2k (Proxy Surrogate ReconstructiGlobal gridded temperature reconstruction method comparisons)- GMST reconstructions - Iso2k (A global synthesis of Common Era hydroclimate using water isotopes)- MULTICHRON (Constraining modeled multidecadal climate variability in the Atlantic using proxies derived from marine bivalve shells and coralline algae)- PALEOLINK (The missing link in the Past — Downscaling paleoclimatic Earth System Models)- PSR2k (Proxy Surrogate Reconstructiglobal synthesis of Common Era hydroclimate using water isotopes)- MULTICHRON (Constraining modeled multidecadal climate variability in the Atlantic using proxies derived from marine bivalve shells and coralline algae)- PALEOLINK (The missing link in the Past — Downscaling paleoclimatic Earth System Models)- PSR2k (Proxy Surrogate Reconstruction 2k)

Christy is correct to note that the model average warming trend (0.23 °C / decade for 1978 - 2011) is a bit higher than observations (0.17 °C / decade over the same timeframe), but that is because over the past decade virtually every natural influence on global temperatures has acted in the cooling direction (i.e. an extended solar minimum, rising aerosols emissions, and increased heat storage in the deep oceans).

Since then there are a number of papers published on why the warming was statistically insignificant including a recent one by Richardson et al. 2016 which tries to explain that the models were projecting a global tas (temperature air surface) but the actual observations are a combination of tas (land) and SST oceans, meaning projected warming shouldn't be as much as projected.

Science: Models have successfully reproduced global temperatures since 1900, by land, in the air and the oceans.

Use of this type of modeling allows for better understanding of the effects of OTEC deployment in global phenomena (changes in water temperature and its effect on atmosphere - ocean interaction or global warming, to name some).

Has someone modeled the thermal characteristics of the oceans + solar heat input and would that help explain recent trends in global temperatures?

«The authors write that «the notorious tropical bias problem in climate simulations of global coupled general circulation models manifests itself particularly strongly in the tropical Atlantic,»... they state that «the climate bias problem is still so severe that one of the most basic features of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean — the eastward shoaling thermocline — can not be reproduced by most of the IPCC assessment report models,... as they describe it, «show that the bias in the eastern equatorial Atlantic has a major effect on sea - surface temperature (SST) response to a rapid change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).»

Then you need the climate model to respond accurately to all these radiative forcings, and by taking full account of the heat capacity of the atmosphere, land, and ocean, to produce a time trend of the global temperature.

And the climate models seem to get the warming rate of sea surface temperatures just right for the smallest portion of the global oceans, the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (24N - 90N).

(07/08/2013) Warmer ocean temperatures will increase the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes in «most locations» this century, concludes a new study based on simulations using six global climate models.

«Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates» «Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data» «Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends» «Reconciling warming trends» «Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled» «Reconciling controversies about the «global warming hiatus»»

By forcing a computer model to have the correct surface temperatures in that part of the ocean, the authors were able to recreate the fits and starts of global warming.

«In our mor recent global model simulations the ocean heat - uptake is slower than previously estimated, the ocean uptake of carbon is weaker, feedbacks from the land system as temperature rises are stronger, cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases over the century are higher, and offsetting cooling from aerosol emissions is lower.

Studies involving 28 million weather balloons, thousands of satellite recordings, 3,000 ocean buoys, temperature recordings from 50 sites in the US and a 1,000 years of temperature proxies suggest that the Global Climate Models overestimate positive feedback and are based on poor assumptions.

The analysis uses a global energy budget model that links ECS and TCR to changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST), radiative forcing and the rate of ocean heat uptake between a base and a final period.

The new research uses multiple runs of a coupled ocean - atmosphere computer model to simulate global temperature changes in response to climate forcing when the sea surface temperature (SST) in the el Niño region follows its historically observed values.

All of these characteristics (except for the ocean temperature) have been used in SAR and TAR IPCC (Houghton et al. 1996; 2001) reports for model - data inter-comparison: we considered as tolerable the following intervals for the annual means of the following climate characteristics which encompass corresponding empirical estimates: global SAT 13.1 — 14.1 °C (Jones et al. 1999); area of sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere 6 — 14 mil km2 and in the Southern Hemisphere 6 — 18 mil km2 (Cavalieri et al. 2003); total precipitation rate 2.45 — 3.05 mm / day (Legates 1995); maximum Atlantic northward heat transport 0.5 — 1.5 PW (Ganachaud and Wunsch 2003); maximum of North Atlantic meridional overturning stream function 15 — 25 Sv (Talley et al. 2003), volume averaged ocean temperature 3 — 5 °C (Levitus 1982).

A slight change of ocean temperature (after a delay caused by the high specific heat of water, the annual mixing of thermocline waters with deeper waters in storms) ensures that rising CO2 reduces infrared absorbing H2O vapour while slightly increasing cloud cover (thus Earth's albedo), as evidenced by the fact that the NOAA data from 1948 - 2008 shows a fall in global humidity (not the positive feedback rise presumed by NASA's models!)

The CO2 doubling response from CM2.6, over 70 - 80 years, shows that upper - ocean (0 - 300 m) temperature in the Northwest Atlantic Shelf warms at a rate nearly twice as fast as the coarser models and nearly three times faster than the global average.

Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperature and global ocean heat content.