Regional trends are notoriously problematic for models, and seems more likely to me that the underprediction of European warming has to do with either
the modeled ocean temperature pattern, the modelled atmospheric response to this pattern, or some problem related to the local hydrological cycle and boundary layer moisture dynamics.
Not exact matches
«By prescribing the effects of human - made climate change and observed global
ocean temperatures, our
model can reproduce the observed shifts in weather
patterns and wildfire occurrences.»
Climate
models show the absence of a global atmospheric circulation
pattern which bolsters high
ocean temperatures key to coral bleaching
For the change in annual mean surface air
temperature in the various cases, the
model experiments show the familiar
pattern documented in the SAR with a maximum warming in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and a minimum in the Southern
Ocean (due to ocean heat uptak
Ocean (due to
ocean heat uptak
ocean heat uptake)(2)
This seems to be associated with particular
patterns of change in sea surface
temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific
oceans, a teleconnection which is well - captured in climate
models on seasonal timescales.
A new paper closely examining
ocean temperatures throws a twist into understanding of the
pattern of global warming seen in the 20th century, but does it throw established concepts and climate
models into question?
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air
Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly
patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB)
Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests
ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air
Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly
patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based
Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests
ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.
Abstract: «The
patterns of time / space changes in near - surface
temperature due to the separate forcing components are simulated with a coupled atmosphere —
ocean general circulation
model»
«By prescribing the effects of man - made climate change and observed global
ocean temperatures, our
model can reproduce the observed shifts in weather
patterns and wildfire occurrences.»
Canadian Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical As with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air
Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly
patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB)
Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests
ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predictors.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air
Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly
patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based
Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests
ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.
To estimate the uncertainty range (2σ) for mean tropical SST cooling, we consider the error contributions from (a) large - scale
patterns in the
ocean data
temperature field, which hamper a direct comparison with a coarse - resolution
model, and (b) the statistical error for each reconstructed paleo -
temperature value.
In general, the
pattern of change in return values for 20 - year extreme
temperature events from an equilibrium simulation for doubled CO2 with a global atmospheric
model coupled to a non-dynamic slab
ocean shows moderate increases over
oceans and larger increases over land masses (Zwiers and Kharin, 1998; Figure 9.29).
To answer this question, large ensemble simulations of regional climate
models will be carried out for an East Asian domain for two worlds: (1) Real world condition for which the observed sea surface
temperatures will be prescribed and (2) Counter-factual world condition for which we will use adjusted sea surface
temperatures obtained by removing human - induced
ocean warming
patterns.
The
models (and there are many) have numerous common behaviours — they all cool following a big volcanic eruption, like that at Mount Pinatubo in 1991; they all warm as levels of greenhouse gases are increased; they show the same relationships connecting water vapour and
temperature that we see in observations; and they can quantify how the giant lakes left over from the Ice Age may have caused a rapid cooling across the North Atlantic as they drained and changed
ocean circulation
patterns.
For the change in annual mean surface air
temperature in the various cases, the
model experiments show the familiar
pattern documented in the SAR with a maximum warming in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and a minimum in the Southern
Ocean (due to ocean heat uptake) evident in the zonal mean for the CMIP2 models (Figure 9.8) and the geographical patterns for all categories of models (Figure 9
Ocean (due to
ocean heat uptake) evident in the zonal mean for the CMIP2 models (Figure 9.8) and the geographical patterns for all categories of models (Figure 9
ocean heat uptake) evident in the zonal mean for the CMIP2
models (Figure 9.8) and the geographical
patterns for all categories of
models (Figure 9.10).