Sentences with phrase «modeled precipitation changes»

They looked at the observed behavior within latitude bands in which the modeled precipitation changes were more or less of the same character.

For JJA, the uncertainty in the projections mostly originates from differences in modelled precipitation changes.

However, for JJA, the uncertainty mostly originates from differences in modelled precipitation changes.

Not exact matches

The difference among the recharge projections from the 11 global change models reflects the difference in future regional precipitation that the models project, the authors write.

Current climate change models indicate temperatures will increase as long as humans continue to emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but the projections of future precipitation are far less certain.

«Climate models show potential 21st century temperature, precipitation changes.»

To produce visualizations that show temperature and precipitation changes similar to those included in the IPCC report, the NASA Center for Climate Simulation calculated average temperature and precipitation changes from models that ran the four different emissions scenarios.

The changes shown in these maps compare an average of the model projections to the average temperature and precipitation benchmarks observed from 1971 - 2000.

Uncertainty about rain, little uncertainty about sea level rise Climate change could also affect precipitation in California, though the two models USGS used in its research produced different results.

Climate model results have long suggested that we would see increased precipitation in the tropics as a result of climate change.

While Mora's models, based on yearly average temperatures, don't forecast monthly highs, lows or precipitation changes, they do show warming trends.

These models can then be mapped against climate forecasts to predict how phenology could shift in the future, painting a picture of landscapes in a world of warmer temperatures, altered precipitation and humidity, and changes in cloud cover.

The new results will enable us to improve the accuracy of climate models and to better predict future precipitation changes.

The explanation for this could be that the global warming is not yet strong enough to trigger the changes in precipitation patterns that climate models simulate,» reports Charpentier Ljungqvist.

And lastly, although the models get the precipitation trends spot - on, they «significantly underestimate the magnitude of change [in rainfall],» Hegerl admits, explaining that better modeling is near the top of the agenda for the researchers.

A team of scientists from Vanderbilt and Stanford universities have created the first comprehensive map of the topsy - turvy climate of the period and are using it to test and improve the global climate models that have been developed to predict how precipitation patterns will change in the future.

This does not necessarily mean the mechanisms driving precipitation changes in climate models are wrong.

Some modeling studies of such effects have suggested drought in the western U.S. or changes in precipitation patterns across Europe.

His team also ran the models with predicted precipitation changes and arrived at similar conclusions, even though moisture levels can prompt more nuanced responses across species.

They also used data on precipitation in Colombia from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to model changes under different temperature and precipitation scenarios.

Using a model of water flow into the lake, the researchers found that 60 % of this decline was caused by climate changes, such as change in precipitation and temperature, and that the remaining 40 % of the decline could be attributed to water resources development, such as diverting water for irrigation that would otherwise flow into the lake.

It seems likely that a warming world will change precipitation patterns that would severely disrupt agriculture, but... the models are pretty bad at precipitation so the certainty on the detail is very low.

As the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report notes, models predict that increasing temperature ought to cause greater precipitation extremes in both directions — both drought and flooding, though there are likely more areas of heavy precipitation.

Daniel Swain and colleagues model how the frequency of these rapid, year - to - year transitions from extreme dry to wet conditions — which they dub «precipitation whiplash events» — may change in California's future as a consequence of man - made warming.

In 100 characters: PNNL designs new formula to capture convective clouds in global models, changing precipitation views

For the hydrological modelling of the Thames river catchment done at CEH we showed that the changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation caused higher peak 30 - day river flow, while flood risk mapping revealed a small increase in flood risk for properties in the Thames catchment.

Climate model projections show a warmer Montana in the future, with mixed changes in precipitation, more extreme events, and mixed certainty on upcoming drought.

Unlike some areas of the country, like the Southwest, climate models differ on how overall precipitation in the region might change as temperatures rise.

Within the integrated Earth system science paradigm, our major research thrusts include the physics and chemistry of aerosols, clouds and precipitation; integrating our understanding of climate, energy, and other human and natural systems through the development and application of models that span a wide range of spatial scales; and determining the impacts of and informing responses to climate and other global and regional environmental changes.

A model by the Purdue Climate Change Research Center in West Lafayette forecasts, by 2050, the full growing seasons will expand by one month; there will be 33 to 45 more days with temperatures above 90 degrees; an increase in precipitation between 14 percent and 22 percent; and 24 days to 36 days less snow cover.

It is quite strange that this paper seems to review future of tropical rainforest in the face of rising CO2 and rising temperature — unfortunately, it completely lacks to mention change in precipitation, which is just - another - very - important (climate change) metric — and it completely fails to mention modelling work of Peter Cox group — that predicts decline in rain forest productivity and growth due to decline in precipitation..

R.E. Benestad (2002), Empirically downscaled multi-model ensemble temperature and precipitation scenarios for Norway, Journal of Climate Vol 51, No. 21, 3008 - 3027 R.E. Benestad (2003) What can present climate models tell us about climate change?

Although there is still some disagreement in the preliminary results (eg the description of polar ice caps), a lot of things appear to be quite robust as the climate models for instance indicate consistent patterns of surface warming and rainfall trends: the models tend to agree on a stronger warming in the Arctic and stronger precipitation changes in the Topics (see crude examples for the SRES A1b scenarios given in Figures 1 & 2; Note, the degrees of freedom varies with latitude, so that the uncertainty of these estimates are greater near the poles).

The constraining of the atmospheric model affect the predictions where there are no observations because most of the weather elements — except for precipitation — do not change abruptly over short distance (mathematically, we say that they are described by «spatially smooth and slowly changing functions»).

Because of the limited availability of daily observations, however, most previous studies have examined only the potential detectability of changes in extreme precipitation through model — model comparisons (12 — 15).

[Response: As stated in my article, precipitation changes used in the projections are taken from a high - resolution atmospheric model.

However, because of the limited availability of daily observations, most studies to date have only examined the potential detectability of changes in precipitation through model - model comparisons.

Changes in extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with wChanges in extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with wchanges in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming.

Decreases in precipitation over many subtropical areas are evident in the multi-model ensemble mean, and consistency in the sign of change among the models is often high (Wang, 2005), particularly in some regions like the tropical Central American - Caribbean (Neelin et al., 2006).

Jerry's research team has developed and uses a simulation model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to consider the impacts of various aspects of global change — climate, chemistry of the atmosphere and precipitation, land cover and land use — on the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems across the gmodel, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to consider the impacts of various aspects of global change — climate, chemistry of the atmosphere and precipitation, land cover and land use — on the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems across the gModel (TEM), to consider the impacts of various aspects of global change — climate, chemistry of the atmosphere and precipitation, land cover and land use — on the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems across the globe.

Fewer models have simulated tropical cyclones in the context of climate change than those simulating temperature and precipitation changes and sea level rise, mainly because of the computational burden associated with the high resolution needed to capture the characteristics of tropical cyclones.

2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 5).2 Regional climate models (RCMs) using the same emissions scenario also project increased spring precipitation (9 % in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) and decreased summer precipitation (by an average of about 8 % in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) particularly in the southern portions of the Midwest.12 Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation are projected across the entire region in both GCM and RCM simulations (Figure 18.6), and these increases are generally larger than the projected changes in average precipitation.12, 2

Precipitation extremes and their potential future changes were predicted using six - member ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).

Model projections for precipitation changes are less certain than those for temperature.12, 2 Under a higher emissions scenario (A2), global climate models (GCMs) project average winter and spring precipitation by late this century (2071 - 2099) to increase 10 % to 20 % relative to 1971 - 2000, while changes in summer and fall are not expected to be larger than natural variations.

Although there is as yet no convincing evidence in the observed record of changes in tropical cyclone behaviour, a synthesis of the recent model results indicates that, for the future warmer climate, tropical cyclones will show increased peak wind speed and increased mean and peak precipitation intensities.

«The sign of mean precipitation changes across the southern U.S. is inconsistent among models.

In 2003, the peak INFLOW was increased and the peak OUTFLOW sset at 798,000 cfs due to changes in precipitation and flood modeling.

These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea - ice changes are simulated.

Models disagree on annual mean precipitation changes in the NA monsoon region.

(3) Satellite temperature data says that climate models are warming too fast in the troposphere, therefore model projections of precipitation change are systematically biased.