Sentences with phrase «modeled trends»

In statistics, this means that the observed trend is inconsistent with the collection of model trends.

Comparison of observed trends (colored circles according to legend) with the climate model trends (black circles) for periods from 10 to 64 years in length.

So from the average model trend we find a value 3 times the measured.

The magnitude of the various models trends was shown to be 2 - 4 times over observation.

Kevin Trenberth is now arguing that the reason observed air temperature trends don't match modeled trends is because of «missing heat» in the oceans.

We already know that (regional) monsoon variability on the scales for sub-seasonal to interannual are higher than the projected model trends of future mean monsoon rainfall (I've just seen that Kevin has mentioned this also).

The error on the GISS model trend would have to be + / -.06 C / decade to close the gap with the observations.

Median model trend was 0.241 deg C / decade (less than troposphere) while HadCRUT4 trend was 0.181 deg C / decade (Berkeley 0.163).

While annular trends in the multimodel average are positive, individual model trends vary widely.

#Maria model trends today are more encouraging for the Carolinas.

[2] Goals of the project include (1) identifying statistical trends in key factors affecting mortality, such as lifestyle and other medical conditions; (2) modeling these trends across time; (3) evaluation of potential future scenarios; and (4) creation of software tools to forecast longevity.

The discrepancy between observed and model trends recently has led some to suggest models could be at fault, the authors explain in a summary accompanying the paper:

Recent weather model trends have increased the chances of the first, shore - hugging scenario.

In particular, my foci include modeling trends in the timing of transition seasons, such as spring, and evaluating the influences of Arctic amplification and sea ice variability on midlatitude extreme weather events.

I know the varibility is very low on the ensemble model trend so I suspect that if you calculated the 95 % confidence on it, you would get a very low 2 sigma, even after correcting for autocorrelation.

As a result the most those papers can do is attempt to quantify the effects on measurements such as model TCR and model trends using air temperatures for land and ocean and comparisons with the observed using blended temperatures.

«bulk atmospheric temperatures in the climate system are warming at only 1/2 to 1/4 the rate of the IPCC AR4 model trends»

The observed trend is well outside the envelope of unforced model trends.

Comparisons of observed and modelled trend estimates show that inclusion of anthropogenic effects in the model integrations improves the simulation of these changing temperature extremes, indicating that human influences are probably an important contributor to changes in the number of frost days and warm nights.

Van Oldenborgh, G.J. F.J. Doblas - Reyes, S.S. Drijfhout en E. Hawkins (2013), Reliability of regional climate model trends; Environmental Research Letters, 8, 1, 014055, doi: 10.1088 / 1748-9326/8 / 1 / 014055.

Furthermore, the study found that the index they devised to track the current's strength over time closely matched modeled trends, which lends some confidence to the findings.

But it's ocean only so the tropical LT trend can't be compared directly to model trends in Santer et al and MMH.

When this type of adjustment is applied tot eh temperature data, the Pinatubo effect in 1992, 1993, and 1994 should be somewhat stronger (especially in 1992), and a bit closer to the GISS model trend.

For trends of length 13, 14, 15, and all lengths greater than 34 years, the observed trend is consistent with the collection of model trends (indicated by green in Figure 1), although it lies pretty far out in the low end of model projections in every case.

Modeling the trend is like modeling a blob of mayo.

«the best - estimate trend value of 0.123 K / decade, it would still be at the extreme low end of the model trends»

I bring this up just to clarify that we are comparing observations with the distribution of all model trends of a particular length, not just those between a specific start and stop date (i.e. we capture the full (or near so) impact of internal model weather noise on the projected trend magnitudes).

, but the most likely interpretation, and the one borne out by looking at their Table IIa, is that sigma is calculated as the standard deviation of the model trends.

That uncertainty has to factor into the assessment of whether the model trends were reasonable.

In January, we presented Lesson 1 in model - data comparison: if you are comparing noisy data to a model trend, make sure you have enough data for them to show a statistically significant trend.

None did so before 2012 though, and we know that the model trends speed up as the ice thins.

It can be seen that the model trends over 2000 — 2005 are very similar for both forcing cases, and that the observed trend is substantially greater.