Sentences with phrase «modeling the temperature record»

Not exact matches

The model draws on historical records of soil and air temperatures, along with the finding that females can shift their nesting dates by about 10 days.

Although climate models have suggested that spring temperatures affect stream flow, this study is the first to examine the instrumental historical record to see if a temperature effect could be detected, said lead author Connie Woodhouse, a UA professor of geography and development and of dendrochronology.

This model uses average temperatures and does not take into account how a record hot or cold day might affect nest survival.

Mora's models merge temperature records with climate forecasts to predict when the temperature for any given region «departs» from its historic range.

«Non-linear» animal reactions He and his colleagues based their analysis on nearly 500 million temperature records collected at 3,000 weather stations between 1961 and 2009, feeding that information into models that allowed them to estimate how climate shifts affected the metabolism of cold - blooded insects, lizards and amphibians around the world.

However, past temperature records have suggested that warming is largely confined to mid-to-high latitudes, especially the poles, whereas tropical temperatures appear to be relatively stable: the tropical thermostat model.

Based on the volcanic record in and around Iceland over the last 56 million years and numerical modeling, Brown and Lesher show that high mantle temperatures are essential for generating the large magma volumes that gave rise to the North Atlantic large igneous provinces bordering Greenland and northern Europe.

This study integrates the complementary information preserved in the global database of borehole temperatures [Huang et al., 2000], the 20th century meteorological record [Jones et al., 1999], and an annually resolved multi proxy model [Mann et al., 1999] for a more complete picture of the Northern Hemisphere temperature change over the past five centuries.

«Such markers can be seen in remote sensing imagery and tree - ring isotopes, but we're also looking at climate records for precipitation and temperature, along with numerical modeling to determine what type and how much water has been delivered to a basin in the first place.

Bromwich said the disagreement between climate model predictions and the snowfall and temperature records doesn't necessarily mean that the models are wrong.

ABSTRACT: French records of grape - harvest dates in Burgundy were used to reconstruct spring - summer temperatures from 1370 to 2003 using a process - based phenology model developed for the Pinot Noir grape.

[Response: The study quoted uses the difference between the weather models and the mostly independent surface temperature record to estimate a residual trend.

He concludes: «The new analysis adds to the growing body of evidence suggesting that these discrepancies are most likely the result of inaccuracies in the observed temperature record rather than fundamental model errors.»

Using thus 10 different climate models and over 10,000 simulations for the weather@home experiments alone, they find that breaking the previous record for maximum mean October temperatures in Australia is at least six times more likely due to global warming.

The historic temperature record is a massively important part of this jigsaw though, because it can tell us if todays warming is within natural variability or quite unprecedented, and it is also used to «tune» computer models (not that this has any great meaning — another story!).

First, a graph showing the annual mean anomalies from the CMIP3 models plotted against the surface temperature records from the HadCRUT4, NCDC and GISTEMP products (it really doesn't matter which).

Their model certainly doesn't explain all of the features of the temperature record, but since it was never their claim to have done so, such criticisms seem misplaced.

Since some of these models have been fitted to the temperature record, and the temperature record has been shown to be suspect, isn't it a case of garbage in, garbage out?

To contribute to an understanding of the underlying causes of these changes we compile various environmental records (and model - based interpretations of some of them) in order to calculate the direct effect of various processes on Earth's radiative budget and, thus, on global annual mean surface temperature over the last 800,000 years.

One looked at the historical temperature record and compared how often such severe heat waves occurred a century ago versus today using 3 - day averages; the other used climate models that simulate a world with and without warming to see how the odds of such an event shifted.

This model suggests an 80 percent chance of a record high in 2016, without any global temperature data for this year being used at all.

John Christy and Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama published a series of papers starting about 1990 that implied the troposphere was warming at a much slower rate than the surface temperature record and climate models indicated Spencer and Christy (1992).

The scientists got a very similar result when they repeated their analysis with a different set of models (those used in the Weather@Home project), strengthening confidence in their conclusion that the record high temperatures were highly unlikely in the absence of climate change.

Climate change made it 175 times more likely that the surface waters of the Coral Sea, which off the Queensland coastline is home to Australia's Great Barrier Reef, would reach the record - breaking temperatures last month that bleached reefs, modeling analysis showed.

As Bromwich explains on his website, he blended model data and observations «to reconstruct a record of Antarctic near - surface temperature back to 1960»:

Many temperature models offer a wide variety of features: memory storage for last recorded temperatures, fever alerts, and backlist displays, to name a few.

However, the temperature as an added signal which is either a cooling or warming one based on current «weather» influenced by ENSO inter alia and this additional «weather» signal in the temperature record is only averaged in the models if included at all.

Response: < / b > von Storch et al purport to test statistical methods used to reconstruct past climate patterns from «noisy» proxy data by constructing false proxy records («pseudoproxy» records) based on adding noise to model gridbox temperature series taken from a climate simulation forced with estimated past radiative forcing changes.

global average sfc T anomalies [as] indicative of anomalies in outgoing energy... is not well supported over the historical temperature record in the model ensemble or more recent satellite observations

The models track the temperature record really really well during this period.

Accurate models MUST mismatch the temperature record in the short to medium term unless the «weather» signal remains neutral over the whole period.

Now scientists have concluded this century, that this natural variation «weather» signal can be large enough to put a significant mismatch between model output and current decadal temperature record.

Secondly, the eyeball average of the model outputs does not fall particularly close to the endpoint of the temperature record.

His error, however, is in suggesting that this discovery (with limited understanding of its magnitude) somehow throws into doubt existing models of AGW (which are based on much more firmly established physical processes with trends in different climate forcings that are directly testable against the historical temperature record).

This means that for the first time a large number of models can be readily tested against temperature data recorded AFTER those models were finalized.

The measures are based on regional data and given a suitable model we can identify a corresponding signal in the global temperature record.

Jacob (and many, many others) seem to think that if model A, when run from 1900 to present, predicts the relatively flat, global average surface temperature record over the past decade, is a better match to reality than model B which does not.

Other examples have involved assuming the MSU - TMT record can be compared to temperatures at a specific height in the model, instead of using the full weighting profile.

He concludes: «The new analysis adds to the growing body of evidence suggesting that these discrepancies are most likely the result of inaccuracies in the observed temperature record rather than fundamental model errors.»

If it is not obvious to a person why a «mismatch» between a model and the temperature record are expected, this is a clue that their understanding is far below what it should be for a well read, science literate person who claims to be interested in this issue.

What really concerns me is that I've read a lot about climate models not being able to replicate the magnitude of abrupt regional temperature changes in the past, and Raypierre has said here that he fears that past climate records point towards some yet unknown positive feedback which might amplify warming at the northern latitudes.

Of course you should have posted the models hindcasts for the whole of the 20th century and then you would see the excellent short to medium term correlation between model output ant global temperature record.

The idea apparently persists that climate models are somehow built on the surface temperature records, and that any adjustment to those records will change the model projections for the future.

A similar case can be made for volcanoes, we have an index, (the tau values), so given our best model we can identify a signal in the temperature record and remove it.

It will not have escaped the notice of keen observers that the satellite / model discrepancy has been used extensively in certain circles to cast doubt on the models, surface temperature record and our understanding of basic physics.

Well, for one thing we see climate models that are as noisy as the temperature record, yet as the errors reduce, it looks like the temperature record gets less noisy.

The disagreement comes only over Berkeley Earth's use of a simple model fitting the temperature record for the past 250 years to human CO2 emissions and volcanoes to conclude that the best explanation for the observed warming is greenhouse gas emissions.

In my briefings to the Association of Small Island States in Bali, the 41 Island Nations of the Caribbean, Pacific, and Indian Ocean (and later circulated to all member states), I pointed out that IPCC had seriously and systematically UNDERESTIMATED the extent of climate change, showing that the sensitivity of temperature and sea level to CO2 clearly shown by the past climate record in coral reefs, ice cores, and deep sea sediments is orders of magnitude higher than IPCC's models.

French records of grape - harvest dates in Burgundy were used to reconstruct spring - summer temperatures from 1370 to 2003 using a process - based phenology model developed for the Pinot Noir grape.

Previously, the claim was that satellites (in particular the MSU 2LT record produced by UAH) showed a global cooling that was not apparent in the surface temperatures or model runs.