Sentences with phrase «modelled precipitation pattern»

From the modelled precipitation pattern for the Neckar catchment and its neighbouring areas (Fig. 9), it can be seen that the highest precipitation with values up to 230 mm in 36 hours occurred in the western crest of the northern parts of the Black Forest.

Not exact matches

In a paper published last month in the SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, author Jonathan A. Sherratt uses a mathematical model to determine the levels of precipitation within which such pattern formation occurs.

The explanation for this could be that the global warming is not yet strong enough to trigger the changes in precipitation patterns that climate models simulate,» reports Charpentier Ljungqvist.

A team of scientists from Vanderbilt and Stanford universities have created the first comprehensive map of the topsy - turvy climate of the period and are using it to test and improve the global climate models that have been developed to predict how precipitation patterns will change in the future.

Some modeling studies of such effects have suggested drought in the western U.S. or changes in precipitation patterns across Europe.

While the models do not reliably track individual extreme weather events, they do reproduce the jet stream patterns and temperature scenarios that in the real world lead to torrential rain for days, weeks of broiling sun and absence of precipitation.

While trees possess the genetic diversity to adjust to current conditions, climate models suggest that temperature and precipitation patterns in many parts of the world may expose trees to more stressful conditions in the future.

«The storm was so strong, so intense, that the standard climate models that do not resolve fine - scale details were unable to characterize the severe precipitation or large scale meteorological pattern associated with the storm,» said Michael Wehner, a climate scientist in the lab's Computational Research Division and co-author of the paper.

It seems likely that a warming world will change precipitation patterns that would severely disrupt agriculture, but... the models are pretty bad at precipitation so the certainty on the detail is very low.

Although there is still some disagreement in the preliminary results (eg the description of polar ice caps), a lot of things appear to be quite robust as the climate models for instance indicate consistent patterns of surface warming and rainfall trends: the models tend to agree on a stronger warming in the Arctic and stronger precipitation changes in the Topics (see crude examples for the SRES A1b scenarios given in Figures 1 & 2; Note, the degrees of freedom varies with latitude, so that the uncertainty of these estimates are greater near the poles).

Wrong precipitation patterns... Why not bring some evidence that I have somehow missunderstood the indelible failure of model outputs.

Results show that higher - resolution models significantly improve the simulation of mean precipitation, the distribution of precipitation, and spatial patterns, intensity and seasonality of precipitation extremes.

Because the model parameterizations are not scale aware, increased precipitation produces zonally asymmetric climate circulation patterns that characterize the «errors» in the model simulations.

The inability of global climate models to match the timing or placement of short - term or regional precipitation patterns such as the West African monsoon may be alleviated by «downscaling» to use smaller scale climate models with increased area resolution.

Many climate models, however, have difficulty reproducing the precipitation pattern of the Dust Bowl drought using SSTs alone.

When I started working with climate models and saw how poorly they reproduce precipitation patterns, I was forced into the realization that the «science» was being fit to the models and that the models were not very realistic.

When I found that changes in observed precipitation were largest in autumn, and did not find the same patterns of precipitation in climate models outputs, I really became skeptical about the use of climate models.

«However, a number of issues specific to the modeling situation could arise in this context, including: how realistically the AOGCM is able to reproduce the real world patterns of variability and how they respond to various forcings7; the magnitude of forcings and the sensitivity of the model that determine the magnitude of temperature fluctuations; and the extent to which the model was sampled with the same richness of information that is contained in the proxy records (not only temperature records, but series that correlate well with the primary patterns of variability including, for example, precipitation in particular seasons.»

The widespread trend of increasing heavy downpours is expected to continue, with precipitation becoming less frequent but more intense.13, 14,15,16 The patterns of the projected changes of precipitation do not contain the spatial details that characterize observed precipitation, especially in mountainous terrain, because the projections are averages from multiple models and because the effective resolution of global climate models is roughly 100 - 200 miles.

But in a given model you can often find ways of altering the model's climate sensitivity through the sub-grid convection and cloud schemes that affect cloud feedback, but you have to tread carefully because the cloud simulation exerts a powerful control on the atmospheric circulation, top - of - atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative flux patterns, the tropical precipitation distribution, etc..

According to Neilson, the latest models suggest that parts of the US are experiencing longer - term precipitation patterns, with less year - to - year variability but several wet years in a row followed by several years that are drier than normal.

improve modeling of precipitation patterns and effects on water availability in mountain regions, particularly in Asia and Latin America

The response patterns of clouds and precipitation to warming vary dramatically depending on the climate model, even in the simplest model configuration.

The model, forced with observed SSTs, generally reproduces the observed pattern of precipitation trends in the central and western tropical Pacific, with increases in convective precipitation of up to 0.8 mm / day / decade.

While Zhang et al. (2007) concluded globally that they had detected an anthropogenic influence on the overall latitudinal patterns of precipitation trends (that is, the climate model trends were of the same sign as the observed trends), in the latitude band that includes the majority of the United States population a mismatch between model projections and precipitation trends was found (Figure 1).

This report discusses our current understanding of the mechanisms that link declines in Arctic sea ice cover, loss of high - latitude snow cover, changes in Arctic - region energy fluxes, atmospheric circulation patterns, and the occurrence of extreme weather events; possible implications of more severe loss of summer Arctic sea ice upon weather patterns at lower latitudes; major gaps in our understanding, and observational and / or modeling efforts that are needed to fill those gaps; and current opportunities and limitations for using Arctic sea ice predictions to assess the risk of temperature / precipitation anomalies and extreme weather events over northern continents.

Climate models disagree in pattern and magnitude of projected changes in atmospheric circulation and climate variability, particularly for precipitation (e.g., with respect to the Indian and West African monsoons).

We further find that years with extreme geopotential heights in the climate models exhibit a Triple R - like regional maximum in the northeastern Pacific, and are associated with shifts in wind patterns and precipitation along the West Coast that are strongly reminiscent of those which occurred during 2013 - 2014.

However, since climate models are better able to capture broad patterns of middle atmospheric pressure (which are strongly linked to precipitation) than precipitation itself, it's likely that we can still say something meaningful about trends in large - scale atmospheric patterns conducive to low precipitation (and, therefore, drought).

The patterns and magnitude of the precipitation changes (scaled to a global mean warming of 4 °C) are similar in the high - end and non-high-end models, although the reductions in precipitation tend to be slightly greater in the high - end models.

The patterns in each season are very similar between the high - end and non-high-end models, but the precipitation decreases are larger in magnitude in some regions in the high - end models than in the non-high-end models.

Current models of climate change include sea level rise, land degradation, regional changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, and some consequences for agriculture, but without modeling the feedbacks that these significant impacts would have on the Human System, such as geographic and economic displacement, forced migration, destruction of infrastructure, increased economic inequality, nutritional sustenance, fertility, mortality, conflicts, and spread of diseases or other human health consequences [135,136].

Figure 1 shows the 2007 IPCC Report model projections of changes in precipitation for the decade from 2090 — 2099 compared to the pattern for 1980 — 1999.

Analysis of extreme precipitation simulated by climate models has included the daily variability of anomalous precipitation (Zwiers and Kharin, 1998; McGuffie et al., 1999; Kharin and Zwiers, 2000), patterns of heavy rainfall (Bhaskran and Mitchell, 1998; Zhao et al., 2000b), as well as wet and dry spells (Thorncroft and Rowell, 1998; McGuffie et al., 1999).

In summary, in contrast with the simulations of extreme temperature by climate models, extreme precipitation is difficult to reproduce, especially for the intensities and patterns of heavy rainfall which are heavily affected by the local scale (see Chapter 10).