Paul Holland, an ocean
modeller with the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, UK, calls the overall growth figure a distraction, and relatively modest.
While true, that's more feature than bug, since, as one of the two extreme pathways, it is designed to provide climate
modellers with an unlikely, but still just plausible «how bad could it be» scenario.
Not exact matches
The next consideration is how this love comes to be wrought; Adam in his first estate was a perfect
modell of mankinde in all theire generacions, and in him this love was perfected in regard of the habit, but Adam Rent in himselfe from his Creator, rent all his posterity alsoe one from another, whence it comes that every man is borne
with this principle in him, to love and seeke himselfe onely and thus a man continueth till Christ comes and takes possession of the soule, and infuseth another principle love to God and our brother.20
With the world's financial system seemingly under threat this week, economic
modellers have diagnosed a cause of the crisis and prescribed a possible solution.
The work could bolster climate
modellers» efforts to depict the way soil moisture and vegetation interact
with the atmosphere, says Kevin Trenberth, a climatologist at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.
For their scenario calculations, the AWI
modellers plugged in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in excess of 500 ppm, a level in keeping
with the forecasts released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Till now, climate
modellers» forecasts of future warming have resembled the famous bell curve,
with the most likely result of doubling CO2 being a temperature increase of about 3 °C, and
with declining probabilities on either side for a narrow range of higher and lower temperature rises (see Graph).
The graph was greeted
with sneers and chuckles from the mainly climate
modeller audience — why??
Modellers start
with a physical process which can be described mathematically.
But they do highlight a big challenge for climate
modellers, and present major research opportunities both for
modellers and for climate scientists who work
with proxy data.»
The emerging discipline of synthetic biology aims to bring together
modellers, physicists, and chemists,
with biochemists, structural biologists and cell biologists.
And that Lighting
modell in combination
with amazing HDR is breathtaking
From 3D
modellers to animators to riggers, we share one characteristic — we're obsessed
with creative excellence.
Logan was an important client of the Anthony d'Offay gallery in the 1990's and bought a sculpture by hyper - realist former puppet
modeller, Ron Mueck, in his first exhibition
with d'Offay in 1998.»
Frieze March 2008 Makers and
Modellers Gladstone Gallery, New York, USA By Katie Sonnenborn While most of Chelsea opted for the de rigueur September solo show, the Gladstone Gallery played the maverick and returned from summer
with «Makers and
Modellers», a teeming group exhibition of 29 artists working in clay.
Statements such as «They come to believe models are real and forget they are only models» reveals he has never had a conversation
with a climate
modeller — our concerns about ice sheets for instance come about precisely because we aren't yet capable of modelling them satisfactorily.
So Ray, another stab at an insight, something is going on here, it may be a small tweak and a useful lesson for
modellers OR it could point to a fundamental problem
with our assumptions or ability to understand the VERY complex climate system.
So what we have in the climate change area (and what I find fascinating for cynical reasons) is that everyone and their grandmother, whether they be lawyers, anthropologists, economists, semi-retired mineral engineers, poets, old academic codgers, weigh in on this scientific issue often
with more aplomb and fanfare than the actual scientists (earth obs through
modellers) themselves.
With the modellers» fantasy of BECDCS [Biomass Energy with Carbon Dioxide Capture & Sequestration] attracting wholly unwarranted official endorsements, a brief critique seems necess
With the
modellers» fantasy of BECDCS [Biomass Energy
with Carbon Dioxide Capture & Sequestration] attracting wholly unwarranted official endorsements, a brief critique seems necess
with Carbon Dioxide Capture & Sequestration] attracting wholly unwarranted official endorsements, a brief critique seems necessary.
I've met scores of
modellers, including Bjorn, and not one of them has ever been afraid of talking
with me about any aspect of modelling.
It is therefore incumbent on the
modellers to try and produce diagnostics that are commensurate
with what the observations actually represent.
I also know that the majority of economic models indicates relatively small net economic damage in 2100 (1 - 5 % of global GDP),
with a large fraction of that damage, in some
modells virtually all the damage, concentrated in tropical nations.
Despite being beloved of statistical
modellers everywhere, ARMA is actually a pretty crude model — it's just a linear autoregressive chain combined
with weighted moving average white noise.
A narrative of a scientific establishment thrown into chaos mild confusion by outlier results that leads a band of plucky computer
modellers to take up a lot of supercomputer time to investigate and who then come up
with a perfectly reasonable explanation that reinforces the consensus, can occasionally get written about.
With respect to modeling, it is a great tool for finding the right questions to ask, but by their very definition can not provide answers since a model always has the possibility of carrying the
modeller's biases and blind spots.
«A narrative of a scientific establishment thrown into [chaos] mild confusion by outlier results that leads a band of plucky computer
modellers to take up a lot of supercomputer time to investigate and who then come up
with a perfectly reasonable explanation that reinforces the consensus, can occasionally get written about.»
Extraordinarily, the
modellers also anticipate new fossil fuel capacity to be built from 2025 on — even under the current RET target —
with coal coming online in following years.
In 2001 artist David Buckland was working
with climate scientist and climate
modellers based at the British based Hadley Centre.
Why do climate
modellers put uncertainties on their results, but I never hear any uncertainties associated
with the costs of implementing Kyoto?
Accurate assessment of the influence of external climate drivers requires explicit modelling of impact risk, not simply weather risk, so the project team works
with impact
modellers across Africa to assess the implications of our weather simulations for changing impact risk.
Because they had the models deposited
with them (a condition of ESRC funding) the group were able to produce pure model forecasts (in practice most
modellers override their models on occasions when they don't believe the answers — and on average this does improve forecasts...).
But that was based on the worst case scenario, from the Potsdam
modellers (Schellnhuber), which doesn't agree
with the more moderate projections from the other German
modellers at Geesthaagt (Von Storch).
But as energy, momentum and mass must be conserved, the
modeller must take an arbitrary decision what to do
with this excess or deficit.
These fluctuations can give us an ice - planet at one moment and a hothouse Earth the next, but they are altogether inconsistent
with a loop gain anywhere near as close to the singularity as
modellers» estimates imply.
What's priceless is the bastard nuclearists who are behind this AGW hoax (in France, all climate
modellers and most of French authors at the IPCC are in laboratories affiliated
with our state agency Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique) are aimed at now by greenies, but
with that same hoax.
I suggest this is what influenced the
modellers because Wigley was working
with them as Director of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at East Anglia.
In the climate change field, it may be that the
modellers, who in some cases appear to try to drive policy, need someone in my kind of role,
with enough comprehension to assess the validity of the models but
with a better understanding of, and ability to communicate, the policy relevance of the material.
Simply because
modellers can not ascertain
with any accuracy how carbon should be priced doesn't mean it should not be priced at all.
I do it to stay compatible
with an older version of an expensive geology data
modeller — too expensive to update for no real gain
Modellers are happy to say the models are fit for purpose while they stay in line
with obs and the skeptics want congress to shut them down.
Yet again, the claimtotheoreticians and
modellers come up
with a doomsday theory.
Build in accordance
with a bespoke construction method and use psi - values calculated by an accredited member of the NSAI Thermal
Modellers Scheme or other equivalent accreditation scheme to determine the y - value.
Using what we know of a successful effort to parameterize an intractable problem, doesn't the historical approach made by the
modellers indicate that DrK could restate their probable failure
with more certainty?
In looking at the disparity between paleo records and instrumental observed records It would be useful to see historical climatologists and
modellers work more closely
with each other in order that the past climate states and their variability can be more accurately depicted.
That they have ALL failed to do so, in so uniformly spectacular a way, would lead one to suppose that either: a) They are incompetent
modellers, as any accountant / marketing executive / politician / consultant
with half a brain can make an Excel speadsheet prove anything he wants.
I'm not a climate
modeller but
with a bit of literature search I could find out what kind of subgrid models they use for the ocean and atmosphere.
The difference between someone maintaining an old / kit car and a climate
modeller is that the CAGW climate
modeller thinks that after each iteration he's got it right whereas the car mechanic knows that something else will go wrong
with the car sooner or later.
On the other if dodgy data is claimed, computer
modellers are then playing
with, er, estimated data (as usual?)
The fact that poor Asian countries
with most of the world's population have enjoyed faster economic growth rates than the rich countries over the past 30 years is probably the most important socio - economic fact of our time, but it wasn't foreseen by the
modellers and, incredibly, many in the IPCC milieu still deny that it's happened: three IPCC chapters (Chapters 1 and 9 of the WG II report and Chapter 1 of WG III report) go out of their way to assert that global inequality has been increasing in recent decades.
I would be the last one to suggest that there isn't more uncertainty in a system
with the internal dynamics of the Earth's climate — and much more scope for severe and rapid change than even the
modellers contemplate.