Sentences with phrase «modelling human effects on climate»

According to Steffen, there are two approaches to modelling human effects on climate — either include anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and land use in conventional climate models, or use an economics approach.

Not exact matches

The model calculations, which are based on data from the CLOUD experiment, reveal that the cooling effects of clouds are 27 percent less than in climate simulations without this effect as a result of additional particles caused by human activity: Instead of a radiative effect of -0.82 W / m2 the outcome is only -0.60 W / m2.

The researchers suggest that modeling the effects of future climate variations should focus on human response to transient short - term changes in addition to the traditional focus on long - term mean changes in climate.

Axel Timmermann and Tobias Friedrich constructed a numerical model that quantifies the effects of past climate and sea - level change on global human migration patterns over the past 125,000 years.

According to one study that looked at eight fuel aridity metrics in the Western U.S. and modeled climate change's effects on them, human - caused climate change accounted for about 55 percent of the observed increases in fuel aridity between 1979 and 2015 (Figure 6), and added an estimated 4.2 million hectares of forest fire area between 1984 and 2015.7 Based on all eight metrics, the Western U.S. experienced an average of 9 additional days per year of high fire potential due to climate change between 2000 and 2015, a 50 percent increase from the baseline of 17 days per year when looking back to 1979.

Abstract: Models investigating the effects of climate change and human - led land - use change on biodiversity have arrived at alarming conclusions, with the worst case scenarios suggesting extinction rates at such a level as to constitute a sixth mass extinction event in the earth's history.

Julia Lehmann, from Roehampton University, said: «In reality, the effects of climate change on African apes may be much worse, as our model does not take into account possible anthropogenic effects, such as habitat destruction by humans and the hunting of apes for bushmeat.»

Research interests: Nexus of physical climate and human systems, including effects of explicit irrigation on non-local hydrology in climate models, effects of MJO amplification on flood extremes and tropical cyclogenesis.

Even worse, the models inadequately include the diverse myraid effects of aerosols and land use / land cover change on the climate system, so they are already hindered in their ability to accurately represent the real world spectrum of human climate forcings.

My bottom line is that while the global climate models, when run with added CO2 and other greenhouse gases, show that this is a warming effect, they are inadequate tools to assess the consequences of these human climate forcings on the regional and local scale.

In contrast, climate models, useless as they may be in other respects, can at least pretend to indicate specific impacts on the world, from which direct inferences may be made about effects on humans and the environment.

I added several comments e.g. about the (minor) impact of human aerosols on temperature, which implies that the effect of GHGs is also less than incorporated in climate models.

• The effects of management strategies on climate, ecosystem services, and the resilience of ecosystems to climate change; field experiments and models designed to learn about coupled human - and environmental systems and to test different management interventions • The valuation of ecosystem services, including the economic or other costs associated with impacts of climate and other environmental changes • Adaptive approaches and institutional and governance mechanisms for addressing the regulatory aspects of special status species management

On the vital question of how to approach climate change, the most influential economist is William Nordhaus whose explicit position is that we should decide to reduce greenhouse gas emissions only if cost - benefit analysis or an optimisation model concludes that the net benefits to humans are positive, where the relevant effects are essentially impacts on economic output (Nordhaus and Yang, 1996On the vital question of how to approach climate change, the most influential economist is William Nordhaus whose explicit position is that we should decide to reduce greenhouse gas emissions only if cost - benefit analysis or an optimisation model concludes that the net benefits to humans are positive, where the relevant effects are essentially impacts on economic output (Nordhaus and Yang, 1996on economic output (Nordhaus and Yang, 1996).

The model included a more comprehensive set of natural and human - made climate forcings than previous studies, including changes in solar radiation, volcanic particles, human - made greenhouse gases, fine particles such as soot, the effect of the particles on clouds and land use.

His scientific background is in modelling climate change and its effects on human activities.

The ALJ first concluded that «the FSCC underestimates the negative effects that increased warming will have on human health» and that the FSCC models «do not account for a significant number of important environmental impacts which will occur as a result of climate change.»

However, human activity may have already caused some some changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).