Both
the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.»
In addition, climate
models and observations suggest that there may be modes of variability which act on multi-decadal timescales, although understanding of such modes is currently limited3.
The researchers noted in today's (Mar. 27) issue of Scientific Reports that «Both
the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.»
Both computer
modelling and observation suggest that these crops are fully pollinated by wild bees.
Not exact matches
Computer
modeling and satellite
observations suggest that these tiny particles can increase storm - cloud cover over certain regions of the North Pacific by 20 to 50 percent, enough to alter storm tracks in some cases.
Previous research has
suggested a connection between coal - burning
and the Sahel drought, but this was the first study that used decades of historical
observations to find that this drought was part of a global shift in tropical rainfall,
and then used multiple climate
models to determine why.
«There have been some idealized studies using
models,
and even some indirect
observations off the ice shelves,
suggesting that El Niño might significantly affect some of these shelves, but we had no actual ice - shelf
observations.
They go on to
suggest that «lowering levels of TNF may be an effective strategy in improving host defense against S. pneumoniae in older adults,»
and that, «although it may be counterintuitive to limit inflammatory responses during a bacterial infection, [some existing] clinical
observations and our animal
model indicate that anti-bacterial strategies need to be tailored to the age of the host.»
But Spracklen's study
suggests both the climate
model projections
and the
observations may be correct.
«We built several
models of equal quality from the photometric data, but we favored a
model made of two lobes since some of the best adaptive optics
observations suggest that the Trojan asteroid has a dual structure,» said Josef Durech, co-author
and researcher at the Charles University in Prague.
Based on
model experiments, it has been
suggested that errors resulting from the highly inhomogeneous distribution of ocean
observations in space
and time (see Appendix 5.
This
observation suggests that subretinal localization of hNPCctx is necessary
and sufficient to promote anatomic rescue of the ONL in this
model.
The analysis of processes contributing to climate feedbacks in
models and recent studies based on large ensembles of
models suggest that in the future it may be possible to use
observations to narrow the current spread in
model projections of climate change.
The basic idea is that across the CMIP3
models there was a strong correlation of mid-tropospheric humidity variations with the
model sensitivity,
and combined with
observations of the real world variations, this gives a way to
suggest which
models are most realistic,
and by extension, what sensitivities are more likely.
Soon after the demonstration lesson or
modeling experience, experienced practitioners
suggested that the teacher
and teacher leader discuss what the teacher understood from his / her
observation.
And in all 8
models the point estimates
suggest that a standard deviation improvement in classroom
observation or student survey results is associated with less than a.1 standard deviation increase in test score gains.
Proposed causes for human IBD include defective immunoregulation of the gut - associated lymphoid tissue that may be precipitated by permeability defects, 14 infectious
and parasitic agents, 15,16
and dietary allergies.13, 17 There is provocative evidence from clinical
observations and animal
models to incriminate normal luminal bacteria or bacterial products in the initiation
and perpetuation of canine IBD.18, 19 The clinical response to hypoallergenic or elimination diets
suggest that dietary factors may influence the pathogenesis of canine IBD.8 - 11 The term «hypoallergenic» refers to a diet that is generally free of additives
and preservatives,
and contains a hydrolyzed protein source.
Data from satellite
observations «
suggest that greenhouse
models ignore negative feedback produced by clouds
and by water vapor, that diminish the warming effects» of human carbon dioxide emissions.
The basic idea is that across the CMIP3
models there was a strong correlation of mid-tropospheric humidity variations with the
model sensitivity,
and combined with
observations of the real world variations, this gives a way to
suggest which
models are most realistic,
and by extension, what sensitivities are more likely.
The bottom line in this analysis is that both
observations of the past decades
and models looking forward to the future do not
suggest that one can explain the heavy rains of Harvey by global warming,
and folks that are
suggesting it are poorly informing the public
and decision makers.
The GRACE
observations over Antarctica
suggest a near - zero change due to combined ice
and solid earth mass redistribution; the magnitude of our GIA correction is substantially smaller than previous
models have
suggested and hence we produce a systematically lower estimate of ice mass change from GRACE data: we estimate that Antarctica has lost 69 ± 18 Gigatonnes per year (Gt / yr) into the oceans over 2002 - 2010 — equivalent to +0.19 mm / yr globally - averaged sea level change, or about 6 % of the sea - level change during that period.
While there has been warm water building up in the pacific,
and this warm water is highly correlated to El Nino,
and most of the
models suggest there will be an El nino (because of these
observations rather than any form of «forecast skill»), that does not mean 2014 will be an El nino.
By constraining A through
observations (grey bar), this example
suggests that some
models are more realistic (
models 14 -15-17-18-22)
and, by inference, provide more realistic future climate sensitivities.
Both theory
and models predict the SIE in the Antarctic to decrease.That both CMIP5
and PMIP3 (paleo) fail to capture both
observations (The spreads are in the Mkm ^ 2)
and theoretical expectations
suggest that systemic bias in the
models.
«The satellite
observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space during
and after warming than the climate
models show,» Spencer said in a July 26 University of Alabama press release.
A recent study by Cowtan et al. (paper here)
suggests that accounting for these biases between the global temperature record
and those taken from climate
models reduces the divergence in trend between
models and observations since 1975 by over a third.
But recent
observations and model results done in the context of the annular modes
suggest the coupling is two - way.
It would not have occurred to me to
suggest that they delete both figures, concoct a new one that obscures the AR4 uncertainty ranges in a spaghetti format,
and double down on text that claims the
observations match the
models.
Observations and model simulations
suggest that even though global warming is set into motion by greenhouse gases that reduce OLR, it is ultimately sustained by the climate feedbacks that enhance ASR.»
The issue is the time of the year, latitude
and type.The Krakatoa problem is well known eg Stenchikov 2006 ie that the
models over estimate the global forcing.Hansen
suggested that the
observations were incorrect, however the Giss
model gets the AO sign incorrect
and arctic central temps incorrect in scale
and time so.This is due to the incorrect heteregenous chemistry at high latitudes eg chapter3 WMO 2003, Ozone assessment 2011.
Both
observations and model simulations implicate changes in the strength of the THC as the primary source of the multi-decadal variability,
and suggest a possible oscillatory component to its behaviour (Delworth
and Mann, 2000; Latif, 2001; Sutton
and Hodson, 2003; Knight et al., 2005).
Direct measurements of the AMOC are only available for the past ten years or so, but Yeager et al. present a combination of
observation -
and model - based evidence that
suggests that the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC, which is closely related to AMOC) transitioned from a weak state in the 1970s to a strong state in the 1990s
and that this strengthening contributed to the accelerated rate of winter sea ice loss that was observed in the late 1990s.
It's interesting to note that while the result of a muted precipitation response to global warming appears to be theoretically sound
and robust across
models, satellite
observations suggest that precipitation is increasing closer to 7 % per K, instead of 3 % per K (Wentz et al 2007).
Tegen et al. (2004) provided an updated, alternative estimate by comparing
observations of visibility, as a proxy for dust events, from over 2,000 surface stations with
model results,
and suggested that only 5 to 7 % of mineral dust comes from anthropogenic agricultural sources.
(BTW, my 1 +1 parameter
model does not contain a lag
and its general success plus the
observations of substantial fluctuations around the mean it predicts
suggest that the Earth is never substantively in radiative imbalance with some sort of serious lag.
Spencer & Braswell (2008) found: «we obtain positive cloud feedback biases in the range -0.3 to -0.8 Wm ^ -2 K ^ -1... our results
suggest the possibility of an even larger discrepancy between
models and observations than is currently realized» See Spencer's discussion on Foster's comments «As can be seen, most
models exhibit large biases — as much as 50 deg.
The observational
and model results broadly support our hypothesis, but
suggest that further work is needed to diagnose the causes of the high - latitude circulation trends in
models and observations.
Overall, these results
suggest that the «
models are statistically indistinguishable from the truth» paradigm, which was used in the main text, is more appropriate to ensure consistency between
models and observations,
and avoids over emphasizing the climate
models outputs.
However, limited
observations from the late 19th
and early 20th centuries combined with
models suggest that tropospheric O3 has increased from a global mean value of 25 DU (where 1 DU = 2.71016 O3 molecules / cm2) in the pre-industrial era to 34 DU today.
Satellite
observations suggest that GH
models ignore negative feedbacks, produced by clouds
and by water vapor, that diminish the warming effects of carbon dioxide.»
So, we have reasonable constraints that
suggest the feedbacks are net positive (amplifying),
observations / theory /
models that explain the bulk of that effect
and remaining uncertainties on one (key) part of it.
And now some recently recovered observations and new modeling suggest that Arctic sea ice grew for a period between 1950 and 19
And now some recently recovered
observations and new modeling suggest that Arctic sea ice grew for a period between 1950 and 19
and new
modeling suggest that Arctic sea ice grew for a period between 1950
and 19
and 1975.
Since ocean temperature anomalies in the canonical Niño 3.4 region are now above 2 C — which are record values for the calendar month
and not too far from their highest values ever observed at any time of year — current
observations in the real world
suggests that the
models are very much on track.
The lack of an oscillatory
model signal
suggests that the inter-decadal global mean surface temperature signal derived from the
observations and shown in Figs. 1A
and 2B is indeed the signature of natural long - term climate variability.
Our understanding of the various feedbacks -
and it is a very complex system - both through
observations and modelling,
suggests that we won't see those catastrophic changes, in terms of the physical system.
I also
suggest you read the paper by Easterling
and Wehner (2009)(Google scholar will find it easily), which shows that similar slowdowns have ocurred before in the
OBSERVATIONS as well as in the output of individual
model runs.
Invoking Buckminster Fuller's
observation that you can not change things by fighting reality
and instead must build a new
model that makes the existing one obsolete, we
suggested that, ultimately, legal design could go as far as to build a completely new
model for how we handle «legal» issues.
Consistent with these
observations, the transition to parenting literature
suggests that parent personality is an important influence on parenting behavior (Heinicke, 2002),
and the attachment literature
suggests that parental internal working
models of relationships predict parenting behaviors (Madigan et al., 2006).