Sentences with phrase «models estimate because»

The odds of a ruinous situation is far higher than most models estimate because of the need for withdrawals and the autocorrelated nature of returns — good returns begets good, and bad returns beget bad in the intermediate term.

Not exact matches

In Budget 2010, the Department of Finance provided an estimate of the number of jobs created / maintained because of the Economic Action Plan, using the Department's Canadian Economic and Fiscal Model (CEFM)[1].

That being said, we only estimate this number because Tesla does not report it, and to not put a number on Model S sales would be to paint an even more inaccurate overall picture of EV sales.

Likewise, recent estimates by the Tax Policy Center and the Penn Wharton Budget Model show that dynamic effects would marginally reduce the revenue loss in the first decade but significantly increase it over the long run because of the economic consequences of higher debt.

I do that because I don't trust return most risk and return estimates for more complex models, especially the correlation matrices.

We chose to model the effects on body weight because good evidence (from both trials and epidemiological studies) links regular consumption of sugar sweetened drinks to weight gain.8 10 12 Moreover, data from longitudinal studies support the idea that changes in the price of sugar sweetened drinks are linked to changes in body weight.20 Other groups have used this form of modelling to estimate the effects of a sugar sweetened drink tax on obesity.18 21 22

We calculated these transition probabilities using data from the longitudinal National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Survey, which assessed a cohort of women in 1987 and the same women again in 1992.25 Several limitations of these data affect our model: 1) because this national survey lacks data on women before age 35 years, women in our model could not develop hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, or MI before age 35 years; 2) because longitudinal survey data were only available for a 5 - year interval, we assumed that transition probabilities were stable within the 5 - year intervals and converted these probabilities from 5 - year to 1 - year intervals; 3) because the survey data were too few to provide stable estimates by year of age, we used transition probabilities for women in three age groups: aged 50 years and younger, 51 — 65 years, and 65 years and older.

This finding is important because government agencies and consulting companies use 2 - D shallow flow models to predict dam breaks and floods, as well as to estimate flood hazards.

This estimate, while in line with suggestions from previous linguistic studies, is a more robust result because it was found consistently in the majority of the different statistical models of evolution tested in this study.

The model provides a conservative estimate of soot's impact, he says, because the simulated concentrations of soot were generally lower than real - world values over the last 40 years.

But the US Department of Energy — whose research facilities sustained an estimated $ 1 million of damage in the earthquake — concluded that it actually enhanced the site's suitability, because seismologists were able to verify computer models about the seismological stability of the mountain and its environs they had generated from historical data.

Because the climate model already accounts for the amount of the sun's energy blocked by different types of airborne particles, it was not a stretch to estimate the particles» effects on solar energy.

You can always count on the weather... to ruin a perfectly good game === Dr Norman Page says: September 14, 2013 at 8:12 am This new sensitivity estimate is merely a minimum tweak to a hopelessly faulty process.The climate models are incorrectly structured because they are based on three irrational and false assumptions.

Velders says his team came up with higher warming estimates than IPCC because their model accounts for trends that others don't, such as the faster - than expected adoption of HFCs driven by the Montreal Protocol, and an air - conditioning boom in the developing world.

They also argue that their estimate, which is based on statistical models only, has a major advantage over physically based considerations (theoretical models), because the latter would require a perfect knowledge about the underlying physical and chemical mechanisms.

Unfortunately, many of these cloud properties must be estimated through parameterization, a technique used to represent complex small - scale systems, because climate model resolution is too coarse to resolve small - scale cloud features.

Previous attempts to estimate this planetary imbalance relied on climate models rather than observations because sufficiently detailed observations were not available then.

KEA estimated that LGM vegetation forcing was around -1.1 + / -0.6 W / m2 (because of the loss of trees in polar latitudes, replacement of forests by savannah etc.), and if that was similar to the SEA modelled impact, their Charney sensitivity would be closer to 2ºC (down from 2.3 ºC).

This could be because of the structural deficiency of the model, or because of errors in the data, but the (hard to characterise) uncertainty in the former is not being carried into final uncertainty estimate.

Because rarecoal explicitly models rare mutations, it estimates separations in mutation clock time rather than genetic drift time, in contrast to methods based on allele frequency changes in common variants20.

Summary estimates were calculated using a general variance - based method (random - effects model) with 95 % CIs.19 Because the potential confounders considered in multivariate analyses vary across studies, we used the parameter estimates in the most complex model, which typically include demographic, lifestyle, and dietary factors.

Because the groups were created using a stratified randomization procedure within matched applicant group pairs, Matchim is also included in the model as a vector of dummy variables that have the statistical effect of estimating within, as opposed to across, matched pairs.

Because the groups were created using a stratified randomization procedure within matched applicant group pairs, Matchim is also included in the model as a vector of dummy variables that have the statistical effect of estimating within, as opposed to across, matched groupings.

Rothstein's research has found that such models can yield very different findings for the same teacher from one year to the next, in part because 25 students or so are not a large enough sample size to create a reliable estimate of a teacher's teaching ability.

Because of differences among study designs and assessments, our determination of ESs can only be considered a rough estimate of impact, allowing comparison among the various models.

Briggs and Domingue found strong evidence of these illogical results when using the L.A. Times model, especially for reading outcomes: «Because our sensitivity test did show this sort of backwards prediction, we can conclude that estimates of teacher effectiveness in LAUSD are a biased proxy for teacher quality.»

«Of the seven car - SUV pairs we tested, we can't point to a single one as a model of compatibility because combined damage estimates run into the thousands of dollars for even the best performers,» said Nolan.

You'll also be able to drive this model for long trip on little gas, because it has a total driving range of an EPA - estimated 640 miles when using a combination of electric and gas engine power.

That's because this model can go a total of 25 miles on electric power alone, according to EPA estimates.

You'll probably already know that because, of the estimated 1000 - unit production run for the 2016 model year, 120 are going to be staying in the UK.

I do that because I don't trust return most risk and return estimates for more complex models, especially the correlation matrices.

Because investors need some method or modeling system to estimate forward returns, the issue is not just a matter of how «good» a single model is, but also how it compares to available alternatives; simply improving on the alternatives can be quite beneficial.

Some dogs will have elbow EBV's even though they were never phenotyped because the bivariate model uses their hip score to estimate their elbow score.

The autocorrelation of the «blade» segment of «hockey - stick» shaped proxies is significantly higher than the rest of the series, this biases their estimates of autocorrelation parameters because their model assumes a stationary autocorrelation structure, making their simulated series unrepresentative of most of the length of hockey - stick series, as can be seen in this graph of lag - 1 autocorrelation coefficients.

M&M created a noise model to show the effects of decentered PCA on Monte Carlo significance benchmarking, and that's why their super-modelled noise matters, because the modelling choices change the benchmark estimates and the significance (or not) of the MBH98 1400 - 1450AD step.

Emphasize that estimates are being made because of uncertainties in the model and the input data.

(in general, whether for future projections or historical reconstructions or estimates of climate sensitivity, I tend to be sympathetic to arguments of more rather than less uncertainty because I feel like in general, models and statistical approaches are not exhaustive and it is «plausible» that additional factors could lead to either higher or lower estimates than seen with a single approach.

Well, because soon (as soon as December 2005) the leading authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (aka IPCC) Assessment Report # 4 (AR4) will have to decide what the current knowledge in climate state, modeling and climate projection estimates is, so as to include it in the next report.

it was because the models depended on numeric assumptions that could have very big effects on the final estimates; and the scientists tended to make assumptions that reassured them of the importance of their field of study.

By some estimates, cumulative emissions in 2014 might be higher than the models simply be because emissions were consistently above the RCP range between 2005 - 2014.

The AP1000 is, in theory, safer than previous models because it has an 8 million - pound water tank perched on its roof; in the event of a power outage or generator failure, it provides an emergency cooling system powered by gravity for up to three days — a window of time estimated to be long enough to avert a meltdown.

(In fact, I think most of the standard economic models probably under - estimate real costs because they assume efficient policies (e.g., a carbon tax coupled with a well - designed technology investment program).

Islands smaller than the spatial resolution used in global climate models (GCMs)-- including French Polynesia, the Marshall Islands, and the Lesser Antilles — are difficult to assess because GCMs can only provide estimates of precipitation there, not potential evapotranspiration.

These estimates are generally model - based because of difficulties in obtaining reliable internal variability estimates from the observational record on the spatial and temporal scales considered in detection studies.

Such ensembles could provide a misleading estimate of forecast uncertainty because they do not systematically explore modelling uncertainty (Allen et al., 2002; Allen and Stainforth, 2002).

Because the dominant driving process is captured, it is not impossible that the model can provide a reasonable estimate for the critical threshold, R c, once all necessary processes are incorporated.

Each spreadsheet lists the model estimates of capacity additions (what electric generating capacity the model and what the states tell the model to include because of regulations); generation (how much the existing and projected units will produce); prices (including firm power prices, energy prices, capacity prices, allowance prices, natural gas prices, and renewable energy credit prices); total CO2 emissions; fuel consumption for different fuel types; and transmission flows into and out of the RGGI power grids.

However, because climate scientists at the time believed a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would cause a larger global heat imbalance than today's estimates, the actual climate sensitivities were approximatly 18 % lower (for example, the «Best» model sensitivity was actually closer to 2.1 °C for doubled CO2).

However, as in the FAR, because climate scientists at the time believed a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would cause a larger global heat imbalance than current estimates, the actual «best estimate» model sensitivity was closer to 2.1 °C for doubled CO2.

If the researcher had provided reasonable error estimates for all of the relationships modeled, I think the predictions would have come with very wide error bars, probably even permitting an ice age in time, because so many of the relationships are poorly understood.