The findings are based on analyses of ancient plant leaf wax found in the sediments of the Gulf of Guinea in combination with computer
models of the climate system.
Ultimately, we'd like to be able to reproduce the global signatures of these abrupt climate events with numerical
models of the climate system, and investigate the physics that drive such events.»
So, what about deterministic
modeling of the climate system?
In their research, team members used advanced computer
models of the climate system to estimate changes in the tropopause height that likely result from anthropogenic effects.
The same observations and numerical tools that enable new scientific discoveries have the potential to transform
modeling of the climate system.
This is one of the more challenging aspects of
modeling of the climate system because precipitation involves not only large - scale processes that are well - resolved by models but also small - scale process, such as convection, that must be parameterized in the current generation of global and regional climate models.
I now work at the Met Office in Exeter where I am assessing how the accuracy of weather forecasts for the next season is affected by how well the stratosphere is represented in the computer
model of the climate system we use to make forecasts.
Projections of climate change are uncertain, firstly because they are primarily dependent on scenarios of future anthropogenic and natural forcings that are uncertain, secondly because of incomplete understanding and imprecise
models of the climate system and finally because of the existence of internal climate variability.
Computer
models of the climate system have a difficult time reproducing this sudden melt.
I think one of the important issues is to be doing
modelling of the climate system consequences of fully 1.5 C pathways and maybe even more than that.
On the other side, Professor Andr e Berger and colleagues developed a mathematical
model of the climate system, rated today as a «model of intermediate complexity» [6, 7] to solve the dynamics of the atmosphere and ice sheets on a spatial grid of 19 × 5 elements, with a reasonably extensive treatment of the shortwave and longwave radiative transfers in the atmosphere.
SCIENTISTS have put a huge amount of effort into generating computer
models of our climate system.
The convergence that I observe in climate science is far more on what statist solutions must be imposed via bigger government, and less personal liberty rather than on an accurate
model of the climate system.
I think much can be learned from messing around with these sorts of «toys», although as pointed out by many of the earlier comments,
models of our climate system have little or no correlation to what goes on in the real world.
Terrestrial flux and boundary - layer measurements represent a new, expanding and potentially hugely important resource for improving our understanding of these processes and their representation in
models of the climate system.
For their study, Hansen and his colleagues combined ancient paleo - climate data with new satellite readings and an improved
model of the climate system to demonstrate that ice sheets can melt at a «non-linear» rate: rather than an incremental melting as Earth's poles inexorably warm, ice sheets might melt at exponential rates, shedding dangerous amounts of mass in a matter of decades, not millennia.
neither do those uncertainties allow scientific closure — as long as
models of the climate system's behavior decay into chaos on shorter time scales than human history, climate modeling will remain prey to misrepresentation by those well enough paid, or ideologically bloody minded enough to do so: the trouble with the climate wars is that neither political side, activist or obscurantist, really gives a damn about the science, and those presuming to speak for it invite damnation by both.
In turn, that depends on a deterministic
model of the climate system in which it is possible to quantify the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) with...
I don't think it's proper to hang predictive projections of serious climate risk on the noose of failing to have a complete top - to - bottom
model of the climate system at work.
What we are really after is how to evaluate our understanding of what's driving climate change as encapsulated in
models of the climate system.
Models of the climate system are a useful tool for understanding these issues on a deeper level.
Not exact matches
«We have to think
of religious identity as the central mental
model and framework and belief
system by which many Americans, if not a majority
of Americans, are going to come to understand
climate change,» he said.
Murali Haran, a professor in the department
of statistics at Penn State University; Won Chang, an assistant professor in the department
of mathematical sciences at the University
of Cincinnati; Klaus Keller, a professor in the department
of geosciences and director
of sustainable
climate risk management at Penn State University; Rob Nicholas, a research associate at Earth and Environmental
Systems Institute at Penn State University; and David Pollard, a senior scientist at Earth and Environmental
Systems Institute at Penn State University detail how parameters and initial values drive an ice sheet
model, whose output describes the behavior
of the ice sheet through time.
A better understanding
of the heating distributions required to robustly simulate strong MJOs in
climate models will improve insights into the dynamics
of the
climate system and projections
of future
climate.
«
Models do a good job at simulating some elements
of the
climate system, but they disagree on key aspects
of the land - atmosphere CO2 exchange, and in particular the amount
of carbon being sequestered,» Rawlins said in a statement.
And the evidence
of change has mounted as
climate records have grown longer, as our understanding
of the
climate system has improved and as
climate models have become ever more reliable.
However, most
climate system models have not done a good job
of showing the relationship between permafrost and soil carbon dynamics.
While large - scale
climate research
models offer a
systems view
of what the transport sector, for example, could contribute to
climate protection in comparison to the energy sector, the study presented in Science, however, examines transport - related issues within the sector by using more recent and more specific data on how people commute and travel.
A. David McGuire, U.S. Geological Survey senior scientist and
climate system modeling expert with the University
of Alaska Fairbanks Institute
of Arctic Biology, is lead author
of the paper.
Three approaches were used to evaluate the outstanding «carbon budget» (the total amount
of CO2 emissions compatible with a given global average warming) for 1.5 °C: re-assessing the evidence provided by complex Earth
System Models, new experiments with an intermediate - complexity model, and evaluating the implications of current ranges of uncertainty in climate system properties using a simple
System Models, new experiments with an intermediate - complexity
model, and evaluating the implications
of current ranges
of uncertainty in
climate system properties using a simple
system properties using a simple
model.
«This paper is another example
of how surprisingly complex the
climate system is, how interrelated or interconnected all the parts are, and how difficult it is to
model correctly.»
Using math and computer skills, he developed
systems models showing 150 years
of climate variability.
Over the next decade a few scientists devised simple mathematical
models of the
climate, and turned up feedbacks that could make the
system surprisingly variable.
Combined, these
models give public health and governmental officials vital
climate information needed to create early warning
systems —
systems that can alert the public to the risk for disease and allow public health officials to mobilize resources and enact mosquito control programs and surveillance ahead
of peak season.
The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability
of climate model projections
of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result
of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's
climate system.
«One reason that we haven't appreciated the role
of aerosols in the
climate system is that many — most —
models don't include aerosol - cloud interactions,» including only a handful
of those used in IPCC's fifth assessment report, released in 2014.
A few
of the main points
of the third assessment report issued in 2001 include: An increasing body
of observations gives a collective picture
of a warming world and other changes in the
climate system; emissions
of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the
climate; confidence in the ability
of models to project future
climate has increased; and there is new and stronger evidence that most
of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.
The
models also include the greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants that result from these processes, and they incorporate all
of that information within a global
climate model that simulates the physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, as well as in freshwater and ocean
systems.
«A cloud
system - resolved
model can reduce one
of the greatest uncertainties in
climate models, by improving the way we treat clouds,» Wehner said.
«Our
model can help predict if forests are at risk
of desertification or other
climate change - related processes and identify what can be done to conserve these
systems,» he said.
«When we included projected Antarctic wind shifts in a detailed global ocean
model, we found water up to 4 °C warmer than current temperatures rose up to meet the base
of the Antarctic ice shelves,» said lead author Dr Paul Spence from the ARC Centre
of Excellence for
Climate System Science (ARCCSS).
Using 19
climate models, a team
of researchers led by Professor Minghua Zhang
of the School
of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University, discovered persistent dry and warm biases
of simulated
climate over the region
of the Southern Great Plain in the central U.S. that was caused by poor
modeling of atmospheric convective
systems — the vertical transport
of heat and moisture in the atmosphere.
«As a result, some atmospheric circulations
systems can not be resolved by these
models, and this clearly impacts the accuracy
of climate change predictions as shown in our study.»
Likewise, while
models can not represent the
climate system perfectly (thus the uncertainly in how much the Earth will warm for a given amount
of emissions),
climate simulations are checked and re-checked against real - world observations and are an established tool in understanding the atmosphere.
To test his idea, Salzmann used a computer
model of the Earth
system to find out how the
climate would react to a doubling
of the atmospheric carbon - dioxide concentration.
Prior
climate models have lacked the fundamental computing power necessary to find the human signal above the noise
of a variable
climate system, McKinley says.
The new findings
of successful multi-year drought / fire predictions are based on a series
of computer
modeling experiments, using the state -
of - the - art earth
system model, the most detailed data on current ocean temperature and salinity conditions, and the
climate responses to natural and human - linked radiative forcing.
«This study is very important because [dust devils] are a big source
of dust in the atmosphere on Mars,» but the methods
of counting them are «primitive,» says Jeffery Hollingsworth, a research scientist who
models the martin
climate at the NASA Ames Research Center Planetary
Systems Branch in Moffett Field, California.
The panel reported that the world is warming throughout the lower atmosphere, as
climate models had predicted, and acknowledged «clear evidence
of human influences on the
climate system.»
«As healthcare
systems and professionals worldwide become more aware
of and concerned for the public health implications
of climate change and excessive resource use, efficient care delivery
models must be better understood and promoted,» says Dr. Thiel.