Sentences with phrase «models project decline»

Not exact matches

He pointed to computer models he and his colleagues studied that project a 30 percent decline in sea ice by 2050.

Using measurements of groundwater levels in the past and present day in those regions, Steward and colleagues developed a statistical model that projected groundwater declines in western Kansas for the next 100 years and the effect it will have to cattle and crops.

During his undergraduate career, he worked with various faculty members on several projects including mapping coral community decline, creating 3D maps of stromatolites, and modeling Manta Ray behavior off the mid-Atlantic coast.

Although the Met Office Hadley Center model projects extreme drying and warming in the Amazon due to ongoing climate change, and there may even be a commitment to long - term decline of part of the Amazon forest even at just 2 degrees global warming above pre-industrial, other climate models show less of a drying or even none at all.

IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline Rampal et al., Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011

Although the population of bears has grown from a low of about 12,000 in the late 1960s to approximately 25,000 today, our scientists advise me that computer modeling projects a significant population decline by the year 2050.

This chart illustrates model results of the 13 scenarios showing how energy demand is projected to grow or decline by energy type through 2040.

Preliminary modeling efforts to incorporate current and future land - use estimates showed that reduced habitat from increased urban and agricultural development led to further declines in projected diversity, but did not qualitative alter the outcomes presented here.

«If sea ice declines at the rates projected by the IPCC climate models, and continues to influence emperor penguins as it did in the second half of the 20th century in Terre Adélie, at least two - thirds of the colonies are projected to have declined by greater than 50 % from their current size by 2100,» Dr Jenouvrier said.

Some global circulation models also project that mean winter precipitation in the Southwest will decline by up to 10 % [52], but it may take many years to detect effects on stream flows because of precipitation variability [55].

Don't forget that the sea ice models these biologists use do not predict a decline in winter ice (Dec - March) and project only slight declines in spring ice (April - June) by mid-century (Amstrup et al. 2007; Durner et al. 2009; Oakley et al. 2012; Wang et al. 2012).

As sea ice declines, it becomes thinner, with less ice build - up over multiple years, and therefore more vulnerable to further melting.15 Models that best match historical trends project northern waters that are virtually ice - free by late summer by the 2030s.25, 26,12 Within the general downward trend in sea ice, there will be time periods with both rapid ice loss and temporary recovery, 27 making it challenging to predict short - term changes in ice conditions.

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The modeling projects that the vast majority of emission reductions achieved by these industries under a cap - and - trade program will be from reductions in the emission - intensity of their production (e.g., increased energy efficiency, or shifts to lower - emission production methods), rather than from declines in production associated with increased imports from unregulated countries.

For example, the «long rains» in recent years have seen declining rainfall but models project increasing amounts of «long rains» rainfall in the future.

In North America's Prairie Pothole region, models have projected an increase in drought with a 3 °C regional temperature increase and varying changes in precipitation, leading to large losses of wetlands and to declines in the populations of waterfowl breeding there (Johnson et al., 2005).

Also there are some papers that have been ignored, such as Rampal 2011: IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline

The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.

A good example is the consensus of chemistry models that projected a slow decline in stratospheric ozone levels in the 1980s, but did not predict the emergence of the Antarctic ozone hole because they all lacked the equations that describe the chemistry that occurs on the surface of ice crystals in cold polar vortex conditions — an «unknown unknown» of the time.