As long as these processes are poorly understood, it is difficult to give accurate predictions of the future climate
by modern climate models.
Troublingly, said Evans, when the team compared their data with
various modern climate models under Eocene conditions, most models underestimated polar amplification by about 50 percent.
Importantly,
when modern climate models — the same as those used in the United Nations» recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports — were run under Eocene conditions, many could not replicate these findings.
I spoke to Syukuro Manabe, one of the founders
of modern climate models and a researcher at the GFDL about this in Atlanta last month.»
As noted above,
modern climate models are used to retrospectively simulate the 20th century as well.
To put it another way,
modern climate models are simulations of physics — thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, some chemistry, and in some cases a little simulated biology.
They took the amount of soot (based on geologic record) and put that into
a modern climate model.
Robock, Alan, Luke Oman, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, 2007: Nuclear winter revisited with
a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences.
A modern climate model is a remarkable tool, and definitely the best method scientists have for investigating climate change.
What is more,
modern climate modeling has been traditionally implemented by people with a technological background and little knowledge of ecosystem functioning.