Sentences with phrase «modes of variability for»

Finally, the role of large - scale climate modes of variability for APDF magnitude and timing in the basin will be briefly discussed.

Not exact matches

For example we know that the major modes of climate variability such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) project strongly onto Antarctic sea ice variability.

Substitute the words «modes of natural climate variability» for «electricity and magnetism,» and well..., hopefully the point is made.

, but a suggestion for avoiding coupling shock: take a large number of model runs; for each assign a location in some n - space for indices of the more important modes of (internal) variability (but maybe also include indices for timing relative to and magnitude of eruptions, solar cycles, etc.).

The paper... offers a useful framework for which decadal variations in the global (or northern hemisphere) may be explained via large scale modes of oceanic variability.

The possible importance of (forced or unforced) modes of variability within the climate system, for instance related to the deep ocean circulation, have also been highlighted (Bianchi and McCave, 1999; Duplessy et al., 2001; Marchal et al., 2002; Oppo et al., 2003).

The authors conclude that the there is a higher retreat - rate for marine terminating glaciers in the recent warm period; in the 1930s when there is a natural mode of variability active that caused regional temperatures around Greenland to be anomalously warm, there was a higher retreat rate for land - terminating glaciers (the lower retreat rate today is in part because they are currently smaller).

The study confirms previous similar evaluations and raises concern for the ability of current climate models to simulate the response of a major mode of global circulation variability to external forcings.

As an intrinsic mode of variability of the large - scale atmospheric circulation, the NAO requires no external forcing for excitation (e.g., Hurrell and Deser 2009; Branstator and Selten 2009).

«The authors write that North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV) «is a key component in predictability studies of both regional and global climate change,»... they emphasize that given the links between both the PDO and the NPGO with global climate, the accurate characterization and the degree of predictability of these two modes in coupled climate models is an important «open question in climate dynamics» that needs to be addressed... report that model - derived «temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies from observations in their twentieth - century climate... conclude that «for implications on future climate change, the coupled climate models show no consensus on projected future changes in frequency of either the first or second leading pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies,» and they say that «the lack of a consensus in changes in either mode also affects confidence in projected changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation.»»

These modes last for 20 to 40 years — so we are looking at another 10 to 30 years of no warming and there is nothing to suggest that this is the limit of ENSO variability.

In the summary of climate model performance in Chapter 9 and expected future changes of climate patterns in Chapter 14, the report cites Furtado et al. (2011) for its comprehensive model evaluation of the Pacific modes of climate variability.

Moreover, 370 years of tropical cyclone data from the Lesser Antilles (the eastern Caribbean island chain that bisects the main development region for landfalling U.S. hurricanes) show no long - term trend in either power or frequency but a 50 - to 70 - year wave pattern associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a mode of natural climate variability.

Tsonis uses a mathematical test for resonance between modes of climate variability to discover a new dynamical mechanism in climate.

Given that the past 30 — 50 years is a relatively short period for evaluating long - term trends, the SST trends themselves could be viewed as a manifestation of large - scale modes of multidecadal Pacific variability (e.g. Zhang et al. 1997; Deser et al. 2004) or as part of the century scale positive SST trends associated with climate change (e.g. Deser et al. 2010); it is likely that both multidecadal climate variability and climate change have contributed to the SST trend pattern evident in Fig. 9 and used to force the model.

We show that the modes responsible for the tropospheric AOT variability in the three datasets agree well in terms of correlation and spatial patterns.

The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the newly extended GACP record shows that most of the volcanic AOT variability can be isolated into one mode responsible for ∼ 12 % of the total variance.

b) failure of the climate models to predict a > 17 year plateau raises questions about the suitability of the climate models for detection and attribution analyses, particularly in terms of accounting adequately for multidecadal modes of climate variability...

The argument is for a better understanding of natural modes of climate variability.

There are also other natural «modes of variability» which may be affected by a climate change, for instance if the heat transport in the oceans are to change (e.g. the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation AMOC).

For late - 20th century warming to be attributed to natural variability, you'd need (a) a previously unknown mode (b) that shared all or most of the observed structure of recent temperature changes (c) with perhaps observation error accounting for the rest of For late - 20th century warming to be attributed to natural variability, you'd need (a) a previously unknown mode (b) that shared all or most of the observed structure of recent temperature changes (c) with perhaps observation error accounting for the rest of for the rest of it.

Results show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is the leading mode of SAMOC - SST covariability, explaining approximately 85 %, with the Atlantic Niño accounting for less than 10 % of the variability.