Sentences with phrase «modes of variability which»

In addition, climate models and observations suggest that there may be modes of variability which act on multi-decadal timescales, although understanding of such modes is currently limited3.

Not exact matches

On this latter scale teleconnections manifest as a response of middle - latitude weather to the dominant modes of variability of the tropics (the Madden - Julian Oscillation and the Boreal Summer Intra-seasonal Oscillations, which similar to El Niño and La Niña characterize variations of climate but on shorter time scales).

His research concerns understanding global climate and its variations using observations and covers the quasi biennial oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation and the annular modes of the Arctic oscillation and the Antarctic oscillation, and the dominant spatial patterns in month - to - month and year - to - year climate variability, including the one through which El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific influences climate over North America.

One key metric in this debate is the spatial pattern of cooling which may provide a «fingerprint» of the underlying climate change, whether that was externally forced (from solar or volcanic activity) or was part of an intrinsic mode of variability.

In many cases, it is now often possible to make and defend quantitative statements about the extent to which human - induced climate change (or another causal factor, such as a specific mode of natural variability) has influenced either the magnitude or the probability of occurrence of specific types of events or event classes.»

And given the inherent unpredictability of the internal modes of climate variability — as distinct from the external control imposed by the external drivers of climate, which themselves are also uncertain — such attribution statements will always be subject to uncertainty and therefore probabilistic.

Their correlations are based on a dynamic mode of variability (the Madden - Julian Oscillation) which has nothing to do with any SST forced response in the clouds.

The paper... offers a useful framework for which decadal variations in the global (or northern hemisphere) may be explained via large scale modes of oceanic variability.

Modes of natural climate variability are those forces of nature by which people who know nothing about modes of natural climate variability can explain everytModes of natural climate variability are those forces of nature by which people who know nothing about modes of natural climate variability can explain everytmodes of natural climate variability can explain everything.

Part of this is a resolution issue, but the more important issue is the modes of natural internal variability, which the climate models do a so - so job on in a large - scale sense, but not in translating the impacts to a regional level.

As of this writing, there is observational and modeling evidence that: 1) both annular modes are sensitive to month - to - month and year - to - year variability in the stratospheric flow (see section on Stratosphere / troposphere coupling, below); 2) both annular modes have exhibited long term trends which may reflect the impact of stratospheric ozone depletion and / or increased greenhouse gases (see section on Climate Change, below); and 3) the NAM responds to changes in the distribution of sea - ice over the North Atlantic sector.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (like other ocean oscillations) is a climate pattern with a mode of variability, which seems to naturally occur regardless of atmospheric CO2 levels.

The primary source of climate variations over this time period is the El Niño — Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a self - sustained coupled atmosphere - ocean mode of variability (10).

But this raises the interesting question, is there something going on here w / the energy & radiation budget which is inconsistent with the modes of internal variability that leads to similar temporary cooling periods within the models.

The IPCC is wrong — the models are wrong — because they missed this mode of internal variability without which no sense can be made of any trend.

From the paper: Over the whole globe, the dominant spatial mode of variability in OHC in the upper 300 m [as shown by the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF), which explains the most variance], occurs mainly in the tropical Pacific and has the structure of ENSO variability (Fig. 4, A and B).

Again I want to emphasize that my use of the temperature change rate, rather than temperature, as the predicted variable is based upon the expectation that these natural modes of climate variability represent forcing mechanisms — I believe through changes in cloud cover — which then cause a lagged temperature response.This is what Anthony and I are showing here:

There are also other natural «modes of variability» which may be affected by a climate change, for instance if the heat transport in the oceans are to change (e.g. the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation AMOC).

These range from simple averaging of regional data and scaling of the resulting series so that its mean and standard deviation match those of the observed record over some period of overlap (Jones et al., 1998; Crowley and Lowery, 2000), to complex climate field reconstruction, where large - scale modes of spatial climate variability are linked to patterns of variability in the proxy network via a multivariate transfer function that explicitly provides estimates of the spatio - temporal changes in past temperatures, and from which large - scale average temperature changes are derived by averaging the climate estimates across the required region (Mann et al., 1998; Rutherford et al., 2003, 2005).

Note, these models capture the general mode of variability; they do not simulate the timing of the observed 20th century oscillations, which reflects ontic uncertainty.

That leaves the North Atlantic, but it has another mode of natural variability called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation...... which is why it doesn't cool between the strong El Niños.