Although markets generally seem to have been underwhelmed by the latest
monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB), I believe the measures unveiled by its president, Mario Draghi, are exactly what the eurozone economy needs, and are exactly what the market should have expected.
In recent days, equity markets from Tokyo to New York have stabilized, however, with major central banks - the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan - set to
make monetary policy announcements this week, it could be a short - lived reprieve.
To measure the natural rate, I use a structural model described in Cúrdia et al. (2015) and incorporate the effects of forward guidance —
monetary policy announcements about what path the interest rate is likely to follow.
Thursday April 26: Five things the markets are talking about Global equities traded mixed overnight, as the market digested the latest flood of company earnings ahead of the
ECB monetary policy announcement (07:45 am EDT).
These expectations were brought forward again when the Fed dropped the reference to rates being on hold for a «considerable period» in its late
January monetary policy announcement, though financial markets are not pricing in a tightening until the middle of 2004.
All of this crystallized amid a cascade of economic data,
monetary policy announcement and speeches over the past few days.
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in today's
monetary policy announcement, but firmer inflation in recent months lays the foundation for hikes in the months ahead.
The Reserve Bank of Australia also has
a monetary policy announcement and in contrast to the Federal Reserve, the latest inflation reports give the RBA reason to remain dovish.
Meanwhile in the US, the Fed just had
their monetary policy announcement where the central bank prepared the markets for the next expected hike in June.
Traders Look For Fourth Rate Hike Hint From Statement US futures are treading water ahead of the open on Wednesday, as investors await
the monetary policy announcement from the Federal Reserve and earnings from 49 US companies.
European yields have generally taken their lead from developments in the US over recent months, with yields on German 10 - year government debt also falling toward 4 per cent in mid January, before increasing to 4.2 per cent after the Fed's late January
monetary policy announcement.
The UK currency was expected to oscillate in the 1.3100 - 1.3300 range until
the monetary policy announcement on November 2.
These uncertainties overshadowed
a monetary policy announcement by the ECB, in which it hinted it is closer to withdrawing a key economic stimulus program.
Sadly, there's news as economists jostle to take a stance on whether or not the Bank of Canada will lower primary interest rates during tomorrow's
monetary policy announcement.
Still, the slowing construction sector and the tempered expectation for price appreciations in the housing resale market are taking a toll on investor outlook — and this is prompting leading economists to suggest an interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada at tomorrow's
monetary policy announcement.