Most global sovereign yields rose, as stocks rallied, amid strong economic data and expectations
of monetary policy normalization by major central banks, particularly from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank (ECB)
The US Dollar was boosted overnight by prospects of Fed continuing the path of
gradual monetary policy normalization in light of inflation in the US approaching the targeted levels but retreated somewhat during the European trading on Thursday on profit - taking.
A rising rate on the 10 - year partly reflects the desire to make progress
on monetary policy normalization, which has been impeded by a series of unrelated surprises over the course of the year.
Any move toward
US monetary policy normalization would come in spite of an appeal from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the country delay raising interest rates until next year.
When asked for additional clarity during the March FOMC press conference she said only that shrinking the balance sheet is not predicated on a pre-specified level for the federal funds rate and that
overall monetary policy normalization would be «well under way» before shrinking the balance sheet commenced.
«We expect the first rate hike of the year at the March Fed meeting, a move fully priced in by the market, with continued gradual
monetary policy normalization under the new leadership of Fed Chair Jerome Powell,» Duncan says.
«The question for 2018 is less about the impacts of the tax cuts for consumers and corporations than about how the Fed manages the pace of
monetary policy normalization amid a stimulative fiscal environment,» Duncan says.
In our view, any decision
on monetary policy normalization will have to take into account some of what is happening outside of America's borders, including the hazy economic outlook for China, the slowdown in other large emerging markets and the uncertainties that continue to plague the eurozone.
Second,
monetary policy normalization is likely to increase volatility.
«Core inflation remained weak in March, so the bank will continue to stress its patient and persistent approach to
monetary policy normalization,» she said.
Lack of inflation has central banks rethinking In recent months markets have been anticipating that the European Central Bank will join the US Federal Reserve in beginning a long process of
monetary policy normalization.
The sustained global economic expansion and an outlook for gradual
monetary policy normalization — with inflation moving slowly back toward trend in the U.S. — make for a positive backdrop for risk assets.
Robust global growth, debt - financed fiscal loosening, and
monetary policy normalization should lead to a gradual increase in global rates.
These conditions support our call that the Fed will continue gradual
monetary policy normalization, announce its balance sheet tapering policy in September, and wait until December for additional data, especially on inflation, before raising the fed funds rate for the third time this year.»
«We are in the middle innings of
monetary policy normalization,» said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS ® (NAR), in a statement.
«A gradual rate of
monetary policy normalization, combined with February's largest gain in residential construction employment in more than a year (a 25,000 payroll increase out of a 61,000 total construction payroll gain), should help the housing market,» says Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae.