In this video we talk through the global
monetary policy outlook and how it ties in with asset allocation.
While we believe payrolls and average hourly earnings are both likely to miss consensus estimates, we think the employment report may be somewhat less important than usual for
the monetary policy outlook, because 1) recent data have been firm so we have some room for a miss, 2) the August seasonal issue is now well known so even a somewhat larger miss may not significantly alter the staff view, and 3) there are several months between now and December to make up for any weakness in tomorrow's report.
Not exact matches
JACKSONVILLE, Florida - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic
outlook and
monetary policy before the World Affairs Council, Jacksonville - 1715 GMT.
New Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed Congress, detailing the central bank's
outlook for
monetary policy and economic growth for the coming years.
Jerome Powell addressed Congress on Tuesday, detailing the central bank's
outlook for
monetary policy and economic growth for the coming years.
«Given the downgrade to our
outlook, Governing Council actively discussed the possibility of adding more
monetary stimulus at this time, in order to speed up the return of the economy to full capacity,» Poloz said after the release of the central bank's latest
policy announcement.
But AMRO said its
outlook is not without risks as it warned of the potential impact of faster - than - expected
monetary policy tightening on global financial conditions, and escalation of global trade tensions, on capital flows and borrowing costs.
ATLANTA - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic
outlook and
monetary policy before the Rotary Club of Atlanta - 1740 GMT.
Gold has regained its shine in recent months, but that doesn't change the dull
outlook for the precious metal over the longer - term, warns Goldman Sachs, which sees prices falling to $ 1,000 in 12 months as the Federal Reserve normalizes
monetary policy.
In her speech on Friday, she made headlines saying, «Based on my
outlook, I expect that it will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing
monetary policy.»
These contrasting inflation
outlooks suggest further
monetary policy divergence is ahead (read more on this divergence and its investing implications in our recent post Opportunities emerge as central banks diverge.).
Taking all of these developments into consideration, the Bank judges that the risks to the
outlook for inflation remain within the zone for which the current stance of
monetary policy is appropriate.
The IMF cites a number of risks to their optimistic
outlook for the next two years, risks that are more concerning for the medium term (2020 and beyond), including geopolitical strains, a sudden and severe tightening of
monetary policies, waning popular support for global economic integration, and a move toward protectionist trade
policies that would impact global trade.
Given these positive surprises, and because
monetary policy must be forward - looking to achieve our inflation target, Governing Council's discussions focused on three main issues: first, the extent to which recent strength is signalling stronger economic momentum in Canada and globally; second, how heightened levels of uncertainty, particularly about US tax and trade
policies, should be incorporated in our
outlook; and third, how much excess capacity the economy currently has, and the growth rate of potential output going forward.
If, as I have indicated, the U.S. growth and inflation
outlooks have not changed notably, then why have expectations about U.S.
monetary policy shifted so much?
Developments outside the United States affect our domestic economic
outlook through their impact on trade and financial market conditions, and we have to take such developments into consideration in our
monetary policy decision - making.
I will then discuss the implications of the
outlook for U.S.
monetary policy, and explain how international and financial market developments influence my thinking.
But as she continually does, Yellen warned that «the economic
outlook is uncertain» and the Fed's
monetary policy was not «on a preset course.»
If the economic
outlook abroad deteriorates and this causes foreign countries to pursue a more accommodative set of
monetary policies, then the dollar would likely appreciate — other things equal — reflecting expectations of lower interest rates abroad relative to U.S. interest rates.
Instead, what I favor is a careful elucidation of those factors that influence the economic
outlook and how
monetary policy is likely to respond to changes in the
outlook.
The post-Board statements I issued each month at successive meetings said that the Board viewed the stance of
monetary policy as remaining appropriate for the
outlook.
The IMF's latest delivery of the World Economic
outlook contains an interesting analysis of the current «non» recovery in terms of a divergence between fiscal and
monetary policy, the first between restrictive and procyclical in nature and the second being accommodating and reinforcing a financial expansion.
Faced with that
outlook, the Board judged that it was appropriate for
monetary policy to exert a degree of restraint.
Despite these attractive features, I don't believe that any prescriptive rule, including the Taylor Rule, can take the place of a
monetary policy framework that incorporates the FOMC's collective assessment of the large number of factors that impact the economic
outlook.
While I can't comment on the specifics of any particular agreement, we have certainly been assessing this shift toward protectionism, how it might affect the
outlook for growth in Canada and its trading partners and ultimately what it would mean for the conduct of our
monetary policy.
In a world where many economies continue to resort to unconventional
monetary policies, Canada's
outlook is encouraging.
Given this
outlook, it may seem like an odd time to be updating our unconventional
monetary policy tool kit.
Everything else, including politics and
monetary policy, will filter through those observables, and our
outlook will shift as the observable evidence changes.
Obtaining an up - to - date and better understanding of the investment intentions of the business community is critical for our
outlooks for economic activity and inflation, which inform our
monetary policy decisions.
That's when the central is expected to raise interest rates again, based on the 30 - day Fed Fund futures prices, which gauge the market's
outlook on
monetary policy.
While the growth
outlook for the United States looks comparatively subdued compared with historical trends, we further doubt whether expansionary
monetary policy can do much more to improve prospects.
In our view, any decision on
monetary policy normalization will have to take into account some of what is happening outside of America's borders, including the hazy economic
outlook for China, the slowdown in other large emerging markets and the uncertainties that continue to plague the eurozone.
Lastly, as noted in BCA's 2014
outlook report: In a liquidity trap, where interest rates reach the zero boundary, the linkage between
monetary policy and the real economy is asset markets: zero short rates act to subsidize corporate profits, drive up asset prices and encourage risk - taking.
Bank of America announced that gold may drop to $ 1,150 in the next few weeks citing the
outlook for U.S.
monetary policy.
At its most recent
monetary policy meeting, the Board judged that the recent financial volatility could weaken the
outlook for demand, and hence may, in due course, act to dampen pressure on inflation.
The weaker overall
outlook for global economic growth could prove the decisive factor in persuading the ECB to further ease
monetary policy in a concerted effort to stop the eurozone's recovery from stalling.
Treasury yields fell Wednesday afternoon after the most recent update on
monetary policy from the Federal Reserve showed few signs that the central bank would ratchet up its pace of rate increases, even as the Fed conceded that the
outlook for inflation had strengthened.
As well as this change in the
outlook for global
monetary policy, another prominent theme in discussions of the global economy of late has been the slow growth in wages.
Based on the
outlook for inflation and the evolution of the risks and uncertainties identified in October's MPR, Governing Council judges that the current stance of
monetary policy remains appropriate.
«If the
outlook changes, so will
monetary policy.
«Our views about appropriate
monetary policy in the months and years ahead will be informed by incoming economic data and the evolving
outlook,» Mr. Powell said.
- Our interest rate
outlook implies that the Bank of Canada will normalize
monetary policy both later and more slowly than the US Federal Reserve.
The weakness in the exchange rate in June led to a reappraisal within financial markets about the
outlook for
monetary policy.
As anticipated, the ECB held its
policy rates constant with the deposit rate remaining at -0.4 % and monthly government bond purchases of $ 60bn euro, despite a slightly brighter
outlook on GDP growth, which is expected to rise to 2.2 % in 2017, Mario Draghi announced during yesterday's ECB
monetary policy meeting.
The world's central banks may diverge in particular
policies, but their
outlook is unified by economic theories and
monetary practices developed in the United States.
Also at 1 p.m., Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell speaks on the economic
outlook and
monetary policy at a Forecaster's Club of New York Luncheon, The Cornell Club New York, 6 E. 44th St., Manhattan.
Though the Fed's post-meeting statement added a section highlighting that the economic
outlook had strengthened in recent months, he reiterated the aim of gradually normalising
monetary policy, while also pointing out the absence of signs of any imminent acceleration in inflation.
Still, the slowing construction sector and the tempered expectation for price appreciations in the housing resale market are taking a toll on investor
outlook — and this is prompting leading economists to suggest an interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada at tomorrow's
monetary policy announcement.
In its quarterly
monetary policy report, which was also released Wednesday, the bank said its
outlook once again factored in some of the effects caused by ongoing unknowns around the potential introduction of U.S. changes, especially in relation to trade and fiscal
policies.
The «current
outlook,» it announced in July, when it hiked the target overnight rate for the first time since 2010, «warrants withdrawal of some of the
monetary policy stimulus in the economy.»