But AMRO said its outlook is not without risks as it warned of the potential impact of faster - than -
expected monetary policy tightening on global financial conditions, and escalation of global trade tensions, on capital flows and borrowing costs.
The risk is that the economy
needs monetary policy tightened to cool prices before industrial activity and retail sales regain momentum lost last year as the Chinese economy delivered its slowest full year of growth since 1999, at 7.8 percent.
The yield climbed amid hopes of tax relief and after encouraging reports on business spending and Fed Chair Janet Yellen's remarks that indicated the Fed will maintain a gradual pace
of monetary policy tightening.
It holds that
recent monetary policy tightening has not tightened overall financial conditions as reflected in credit and term premiums, stock prices, and foreign exchange values.
The Fed raised its key overnight lending rate in December for the first time in nearly a decade, but it has backed away from
further monetary policy tightening this year largely due to a global economic slowdown and financial market volatility.
The last time a Liberal government entered an election in the middle of
a monetary policy tightening cycle was in 2006; that year, the Conservatives defeated them.
Many believe a dovish approach from the Bank of England may well be warranted as they expect a deceleration in near - term U.K. economic growth which will further drive the impetus to delay
any monetary policy tightening.
As
the monetary policy tightens and the central bankers sponsored punch bowl is taken away, I have been looking very closely at some of the fundamentals of my company holdings.
There is also some evidence that
the monetary policy tightening itself may have had a quicker effect than normal.
Strengthening wage growth should put upward pressure on inflation and keep the Federal Reserve on a gradual path of
monetary policy tightening.
As pressure on prices has increased over the past couple of years, not just because of the direct effects of food and energy prices, but reflecting a broader pick - up under conditions of strong demand, tight capacity and anticipated further expansionary influences of the terms of trade,
monetary policy tightened.
This widening in the gap between fixed and variable housing rates is likely to have contributed to the pick - up in the proportion of borrowers choosing to take out fixed - rate housing loans: in November 2004, the latest available data, 11 per cent of new owner - occupier housing loan approvals were at fixed rates, up from 7 per cent three months earlier and the highest share since the beginning of 2004, which followed a period of
monetary policy tightening (Graph 45).
Some of these gains were reversed in April after
the monetary policy tightening in the United States prompted some downward revisions to expected demand for commodities.
That may explain why the Fed sought to leave the door open for a rate hike rather than paint the economy as fully ready for
a monetary policy tightening.
An investor expecting
a monetary policy tightening and short rates to increase more than long rates might adopt a «barbell» portfolio, with very short and very long bonds.
If the Fed opts to broadcast a slow and small pace of
monetary policy tightening (one or two rate increases), Marks expects the market will digest this well.