The purpose of a systematic, rules -
based monetary regime is to keep the economy on track and prevent a sharp decline in final demand.
It is durable; in contrast to
other monetary regimes, no country has been forced to abandon an inflation - targeting regime.
Back in May, my main argument in favor of gold was a
benign monetary regime, i.e. low to negative real rates, or interest rates after inflation.
Under the
current monetary regime, major upward trends in interest rates are not driven by the desire to consume more in the present (the desire to save less) or by rapidly - increasing demand for borrowed money to invest in productive enterprises.
Asset price booms and busts and credit - related booms have occurred under many
different monetary regimes, including in highly regulated financial systems.
We certainly agree that investment demand will increase in the
coming monetary regime change, but that's only one piece of the demand pie...
Of course under an NGDP level
targeting monetary regime, income grows steadily, meaning that cutting spending (say to reduce debt) is offset by monetary policy.
PANEL 3: TRANSITION TO A
NEW MONETARY REGIME Moderator: Steve H. Hanke Professor of Economics, Johns Hopkins University DM: Steve Hanke was a professor of mine when I went to Hopkins.
The works in Disco Angola are all dated from 1974 or 1975, a pivotal moment in the history of global political economy: the Bretton
Woods monetary regime had collapsed, the 1973 oil crisis was just abating, global markets were enduring the worst crash since the great Depression and the rapprochement between the US and the Soviet Union was breaking down.
Back in May, my main argument in favor of gold was a
benign monetary regime, i.e. low to negative real rates, or interest rates after inflation.
Of particular relevance, under the
current monetary regime it is not only possible for a large, general increase in the desire to save to be accompanied by rising interest rates, it is highly probable that when a large rise in interest rates happens it will be accompanied by a general desire to save more.
To the extent that
a monetary regime can reduce uncertainty about the general level of prices, and that that assists in resource allocation and in encouraging saving and investment, that will be monetary policy's contribution to average growth rates.
While technicals, such as support and resistance levels, can be useful in finding entry points, carry trades should not be committed to without an understanding of where central banks are in
their monetary regimes and what their next policy moves are likely to be.