Texas Tech is the choice of 60 percent of
money line bettors, with another modest majority of 54 percent anteing up on the over.
Not exact matches
Though public
bettors seem to be pounding the hometown Heat, sharp
money is coming in on the Kings and pushing the
line down.
Each matchup is different, and
bettors need to pay attention to factors like public betting trends and sharp
money indicators like steam moves and / or reverse
line movement.
Sportsbooks know they'll receive public
money on those two teams regardless of the
line, and those shaded
lines have provided value for opportunistic contrarian
bettors.
For value - minded sports
bettors, using betting trends data and
line - movement to identify games that are shaded solely due to public
money, or the expectation of public
money, will help you get the «best of the number» and increase your overall winning percentage.
During the regular season, sportsbooks almost always adjust their
lines based on the action of their sharpest
bettors, and they won't move the number based on public
money unless there's a marquee matchup with one - sided public betting and limited sharp action on the other side.
With a majority of
bettors taking Indiana, public
money has moved the
line to -7 across the sports betting marketplace.
Bottom
line: Broncos need to cover the spread soon or John Elway is going to have to start paying some
bettors back their
money.
Bettor @WilliamHillUS has a $ 5,000
money -
line bet on Villanova at -15,000.
With an influx of casual
bettors entering the market, public
money has a more significant impact on
line movement, which often creates artificially inflates
lines that can be exploited by contrarian
bettors.
Public
money caused the
line to move a half - point, but sharp
bettors quickly snatched up Toronto +8.
Since there's limited public
money in the marketplace, sharp
bettors are mainly responsible for moving
lines.
Despite involving two high - profile teams, this game currently ranks last in terms of number of bets, which may indicate that this
line is «right on the
money» and many
bettors are staying away.
Bettor @WilliamHillUS bet $ 5,000 on Gonzaga -LRB--10,000) on the
money -
line.
That means in addition to targeting heavily bet games with one - sided public betting, contrarian
bettors need to make sure there have been no sharp
money indicators (like steam moves and / or reverse
line movement) on their opponent.
On the eve of Super Bowl Sunday,
bettors began pushing more
money behind the Seattle Seahawks, moving the spread to a pick»em on the betting board at some sportsbooks and forcing other books to adjust their
lines lower.
There's some balance among public
bettors, but
money on USC keeps pushing the
line up.
By utilizing sharp
money indicators like reverse
line movement, contrarian
bettors have been able to maximize their profits.
Casual
bettors love betting favorites and overs, so sportsbooks will shade their opening
lines to account for the inevitable influx of public
money.
We've discussed at length how square
bettors typically overvalue ranked teams, how
bettors can diagnose sharp
money indicators like reverse
line movement, and how good rushing teams are typically undervalued in low - scoring games.
Although sportsbooks mainly cater to their sharpest
bettors, public
money still factors into MLB
line movement.
Given the discrepancy between the betting percentages and
money percentages as well as the
line movement, sharper
bettors believe that Oregon State will cover the spread.
Though the
line movement and
money would suggest that sharp
bettors are on the 76ers, our old pal David Solar points out that teams in this situation have not fared well.
The other way
bettors can easily identify sharp
money is by looking for reverse
line movement, which is when a
line moves against our public betting percentages.
That means that although a majority of
bettors are taking Memphis, there is actually more
money being placed on Charlotte to cause that reverse
line movement.
Our goal is to inform
bettors what's responsible for moving the
line and whether any games are offering value based on sharp
money indicators or historically profitable betting trends.
By examining historical trends, public betting trends and sharp
money indicators (like steam and reverse
line movement), I was able to pinpoint which team was offering contrarian value to
bettors.
The influx of public
money creates artificially inflated
lines, which can be exploited by opportunistic
bettors.
-- Earlier this season we published an article detailing how
bettors could track MLB sharp
money based on reverse
line movement.
Line movement that contradicts our ticket percentages is known as reverse line movement, and it's a strong indicator that sharp money — i.e large wagers from respected bettors or syndicates — is taking NC State plus the poi
Line movement that contradicts our ticket percentages is known as reverse
line movement, and it's a strong indicator that sharp money — i.e large wagers from respected bettors or syndicates — is taking NC State plus the poi
line movement, and it's a strong indicator that sharp
money — i.e large wagers from respected
bettors or syndicates — is taking NC State plus the points.
Bettors have been steadily pounding Golden State since the
line opened on Wednesday afternoon, which makes it look like public
money is solely responsible for this 2 - point
line move.
88 % of
bettors were on the Man Utd
Money Line, 91 % on the Goal
Line, and 83 % on the Over 2.5, all losers.
It's clear that sharp
money is taking Clemson at +7 in Monday's game, but it's important for
bettors to shop for the best
line before placing any bets.
Money percentages that contradict our ticket percentages are another excellent indicator of sharp money, and it also helps explain how the line could move two - points despite the majority of bettors taking Florida S
Money percentages that contradict our ticket percentages are another excellent indicator of sharp
money, and it also helps explain how the line could move two - points despite the majority of bettors taking Florida S
money, and it also helps explain how the
line could move two - points despite the majority of
bettors taking Florida State.
This reverse
line movement indicates that although square
bettors are taking the Spartans, sharp
money has been hammering the Crimson Tide.
Bettors pounded him at plus -
money, and despite the
line movement, there's still plenty of value to be had here with this borderline psychotic individual.
However, if that
line drops to -13.5 instead, that means there is actually more
money (or more respected
money) represented in the 20 % of spread bets taking the Dolphins, forcing the books to move to -13.5 to actually encourage more
bettors to take the Patriots, even though they're already receiving 80 % of spread bets.
Oddsmakers shade their
lines to take advantage of casual
bettors; however, public
money is still an important factor in
line movement.
However, moves caused by sportsbooks adjusting their
lines to account for a key injury, rather than a sudden influx of big
money, can be recognized by
bettors and filtered out.
This reverse
line movement would indicate that even though more
bettors are taking Team B, more total dollars have been wagered on Team A. Reverse
line movement is a sure sign that smart
money, or large wagers made by wise guys or betting syndicates, has come in on Team A.
-- Yesterday we re-posted an article detailing how
bettors could track MLB sharp
money based on reverse
line movement.
This has moved the
line on Real Madrid from +158 to +149, but
bettors should be careful to note that this is a mix of public and sharp
money, rather than sharp
money alone.
However, if the
line drops to -6.5 or -6, it means that although more
bettors are taking Kentucky, more
money has actually been placed on Florida.
Over the past few weeks we've discussed some of the top betting trends during bowl season, broken down potential championship matchups and explained how
bettors can utilize reverse
line movement to identify sharp
money.
Even though more
bettors are taking the favorite, more
money has been waged on the underdog and that one - sided public
money is responsible for that one - point
line move.
Typically this reverse
line movement is an excellent indicator of sharp
money on Denver, but our newly added
money percentages should give
bettors a pause for concern.
By looking at historically profitable trends and sharp
money indicators like steam moves and reverse
line movement, we're able to diagnose which games are offering value to
bettors.
With the
line movement correlating directly with our public betting percentages, it would appear that public
money was responsible for the initial 1.5 - point
line move on the spread; however, sharp
bettors were happy to take this artificially inflated
line and bet Ole Miss back to +4.5.
We frequently see
bettors place more value in cherry - picked stats based on small sample sizes than consistently profitable sharp
money indicators like reverse
line movement.
This post will remain «live» through kickoff of the College Football Playoff Championship Game on January 12th between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks and will be constantly updated to reflect major
line moves, public betting trends, sharp
money indicators (action from professional
bettors and / or syndicates), injury news and relevant betting analysis, so please check back often.