After peaks
in money supply growth rates are reached, it takes quite some time for the new money to spread out and exert its full effect on prices.
They argue that, if double -
digit money supply growth can sit happily alongside a 2 or 3 % inflation target and an appreciating currency, then surely the argument is settled.
The research firm compared the difference between the change
in money supply growth and nominal GDP growth and Chinese stock prices.
We have drawn two horizontal lines on it that indicate roughly the levels
of money supply growth associated with bubbles and where roughly the «danger zone» begins — when the growth rate falls below this threshold after an asset bubble has expanded for an extended time period, the air is getting thin.
For decades, the Federal Reserve has published data on the money supply, and for many years the Fed set targets
for money supply growth.
For now we mainly want to note that it has to be expected that similar to other investment assets, the valuation of cryptocurrencies in terms of fiat money will definitely partly depend on
money supply growth rates.
What might surprise you is that a large percentage of this growth can be attributed to China, which is still investing heavily in infrastructure, even
as money supply growth has slowed.
Rapid
money supply growth with no consumer price inflation can only really occur within the confines of an asset price bubble, or else, where does the money go?
Following a peak, asset prices will tend to expand even
while money supply growth begins to slow down; it is only after the slowdown has become very pronounced that asset bubbles begin to run into difficulties.
Conversely, the rise of
money supply growth compared to GDP growth «coincided with major rallies» for China's stock market, according to BCA.
If one puts any stock (pardon the pun) in the notion that
broad money supply growth is generally supportive of nominal equity prices over time, then this is undeniably compelling.
Hence, there is a big push
in money supply growth in Europe and we already see that economic data in Europe is beginning to improve.
The decisive factors for the stock market are liquidity (i.e.,
money supply growth rates, which have collapsed), valuations (extremely high valuations will eventually be corrected, often violently) and market internals & technical divergences (which are a reflection of liquidity and risk appetites).
Blockchain will allow them to trace transactions and collect «real - time, complete and authentic» data to compile precise monetary indicators such
as money supply growth.
The Fed is shrinking their balance sheet: See this CNBC video interview of Jim Grant and the graph
of money supply growth is shown about 1.5 minutes into the interview....
It was not necessary for
the money supply growth rate to turn negative.
The measures have been directed at curbing over-investment in certain sectors of the economy (such as cement, steel, and property), and reining in credit and
money supply growth.
This is some indication that the economy — especially the US economy — is weakening, which I attribute to a lagged effect of a slow - down in
money supply growth that happened a while ago.
Understandably so: due to the close correlation between the level of forex reserves and credit and
money supply growth in China, a rapid depletion of reserves is likely to impact the country's giant credit bubble.
By itself, none of this would be overly concerning, but in conjunction with foaming - at - the - mouth bullish sentiment, stretched valuations and a sharp slowdown in
money supply growth, it is hard to be anything but concerned.
While Europe's business cycle remained admittedly muted at year - end, lead indicators of loan growth, including credit demand,
money supply growth and loan officer surveys, were distinctly positive.
Money supply growth is high and inflation rising in much of the developing world.
But while experts use numbers, charts and statistics such as the unemployment rate,
money supply growth, exchange rate fluctuations and various market indexes to track the economy, consumers can also detect what's going on based on what they see at the cash register.