In summary, an intensification of the Asian summer monsoon and an enhancement of summer
monsoon precipitation variability with increased greenhouse gases that was reported in the SAR has been corroborated by new studies.
The fourth assessment report of the IPCC had this to say about the monsoon: «It is likely that warming associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will cause an increase of Asian summer
monsoon precipitation variability.
Meehl and Arblaster (2003) relate the increased
monsoon precipitation variability to increased variability in evaporation and precipitation in the Pacific due to increased SSTs.
Not exact matches
Most model results project increased interannual
variability in season - averaged Asian
monsoon precipitation associated with an increase in its long - term mean value (e.g., Hu et al., 2000b; Räisänen, 2002; Meehl and Arblaster, 2003).
Climate models disagree in pattern and magnitude of projected changes in atmospheric circulation and climate
variability, particularly for
precipitation (e.g., with respect to the Indian and West African
monsoons).