The point of such research is to prepare national and civic authorities for extremes to come, and Professor Diffenbaugh and his fellow researchers have already used their statistical approach to connect human - induced global warming with drought in California, and changes in
monsoon rainfall in Asia.
They used climate simulations to estimate the effects of volcanic eruptions on
summer monsoon rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands.
«While measurements indicate the total amount
of monsoon rainfall in Nepal has not changed, the timing of those rains has altered», says Dr Bed Mani Dahal of the Department of Environmental Science and Engineering at Kathmandu University.
Nature: The vagaries of South Asian summer
monsoon rainfall on short and long timescales impact the lives of more than one billion people.
The dispersal of human populations out of Africa into Arabia was most likely linked to episodes of climatic amelioration, when
increased monsoon rainfall led to the activation of drainage systems, improved freshwater availability, and the development of regional vegetation.
One study found that an observed decrease in
Asian monsoon rainfall could only be simulated in response to black carbon aerosol, although conclusions regarding the monsoon response to anthropogenic forcing differ.
Recent Trends in Melting Glaciers, Tropospheric Temperatures over the Himalayas and Summer
Monsoon Rainfall over India.
Studies of historical records in India suggest that
reduced monsoon rainfall in central India has occurred when the sea surface temperatures in specific regions of the Pacific Ocean were warmer than normal.
Evidence from the Al Sibetah alluvial fan sequence indicates that during insolation maxima, increased
monsoon rainfall led to the widespread activation of drainage systems and grassland development throughout regions that were important for the dispersal of early human populations.
The proximity of the SEASM to the WNP anticyclone causes increased
monsoon rainfall when the anticyclone is weaker or covers a smaller area.
For example, it has been shown that the SAMOC could influence
global monsoon rainfall through the forcing of an interhemispheric atmospheric circulation.
Government and private weather experts have all forecast above
average monsoon rainfall in India this year, doubly welcome in a country in the middle of a second successive drought
Very little of the arable land is irrigated, and local populations depend on
monsoon rainfall for agriculture.
Although it has been previously documented that
overall monsoon rainfall has lessened, few researchers have found changes in extremes.
The consistent result is that 4 to 12 percent variability change of
daily monsoon rainfall in India are to be expected per degree Celsius of warming.
We also do not understand
how monsoon rainfall will respond to changes in emissions of pollutants or to climate change.
We conclude that the positive relation between AISMR [All Indian Summer
Monsoon Rainfall] and solar activity, as found by other authors, is due to the combined effect of AMO, PDO and multi-decadal ENSO variability on AISMR.
Sulfurous gases released into the atmosphere
impacted monsoon rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, weakening the rain belt system and, as a result, depleting the flow of water to the river.
We already know that (regional) monsoon variability on the scales for sub-seasonal to interannual are higher than the projected model trends of future
mean monsoon rainfall (I've just seen that Kevin has mentioned this also).
The future evolution of
monsoon rainfall under increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 and aerosol pollution is highly uncertain (3).
Lead author Dr Debbie Polson, of the University of Edinburgh's School of GeoSciences, said: «This study shows for the first time that the drying of the monsoon over the past 50 years can not be explained by natural climate variability and that human activity has played a significant role in altering the
seasonal monsoon rainfall on which billions of people depend.»
Emissions produced by human activity have caused
annual monsoon rainfall to decline over the past 50 years, a study suggests.
Alterations to summer
monsoon rainfall affect the lives of billions of people, mostly those living in India, South East Asia and parts of Africa.
For example, the northern East Asian summer monsoon (NEASM) is, for the years of highest SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific (TEP), affected by the Pacific - East Asian (PEA) teleconnection pattern, which consists of a wave creating an anomalously strong western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclonic circulation and anomalously strong cyclonic circulation in the NEASM region, creating
more monsoon rainfall.
Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated
where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios.
Further, projections of
monsoon rainfall pattern over the Indian subcontinent indicate that by 2050, there will be a 10 per cent increase in the amount and intensity of.
Using rain - gauge data, Hennessy et al. (1999) found an increase in calendar - year total rainfall in the Northern Territory of 18 % from 1910 to 1995, attributed mostly to
enhanced monsoon rainfall in the 1970s and coincident with an almost 20 % increase in the number of rain days.
India's dense population and
erratic monsoon rainfall put it constantly at food risk — with a crop failure about every seven years.
PNNL researchers found that pollution from sources like motorcycles and coal - fired power plants
reduce monsoon rainfall.
The strong inverse relationship between El Niño events and
Indian monsoon rainfalls that prevailed for more than a century prior to about 1976 has weakened substantially since then (Kumar et al., 1999; Krishnamurthy and Goswami, 2000; Sarkar et al., 2004), involving large - scale changes in atmospheric circulation.
Andy T is correct that the largest changes in the South
Asian monsoon rainfall is occurring in the Bay of Bengal which, by the way, is the regional maximum in precipitation and has been for a long time.
For example, certain abrupt global climate changes thousands of years ago (Dansgaard - Oeschger events, see the essay on Ocean Currents) included large changes in
monsoon rainfall over Asia, which produced noticeable isotope shifts, Severinghaus et al. (2009).
A new study using a high - resolution stalagmite record from Australia with cave sites in southern China reveal a close coupling of
monsoon rainfall on both continents, with numerous synchronous pluvial and drought periods, suggesting that the tropical rain belt expanded and contracted numerous times at multidecadal to centennial scales.
With data updated to 2002, Smith (2004) demonstrated that
increased monsoon rainfall has become statistically significant over northern, western and central Australia.
Their analysis revealed a close coupling
of monsoon rainfall on both continents, with numerous synchronous pluvial and drought periods, suggesting that the tropical rain belt expanded and contracted numerous times at multidecadal to centennial scales.
This intensification has resulted in significantly greater global summer
monsoon rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere than predicted from greenhouse - gas - induced warming alone: namely a 9.5 % increase, compared to the anthropogenic predicted contribution of 2.6 % per degree of global warming.
The researchers also found that while populations were expanding and technology was improving, the environment in south Asia was deteriorating — climate shifts cut down on
monsoon rainfall, leading to growing deserts with pockets of rich, diverse resources.
Dust that absorbed heat more efficiently was linked with increases in
monsoon rainfall.