In early summer, the first to third week of July, employees make guesses about the minimum daily ice extent, which is a slightly lower number than
the monthly mean extent targeted by SIO and NCAR.
Since the Outlook is based on the September
monthly mean extent, we will know in October whether the 2007 record minimum was tied, though this appears unlikely at the present time.
Estimation data are the NSIDC
monthly mean extent reports from September 1979 through September 2012.
Not exact matches
The
monthly mean of the September sea ice
extent can then only be determined in October.
What I
meant is that I won't go to the
extent of calling the bank to reduce the
monthly payment to keep the amortization same as it was before the pre-payment.
Kauker et al. (AWI / OASys), 5.58 (+ / - 0.41), Modeling (same as June) We estimate a
monthly mean September sea - ice
extent of 5.67 ± 0.40 million km2 (without assimilation of sea - ice / ocean observations).
NIPR / UT (Kimura et al.), 4.67, Statistical The
monthly mean ice
extent in September will be about 4.67 million km2.
Since its inception 8 years ago, the NCAR / CU sea ice pool has easily rivaled much more sophisticated efforts based on statistical methods and physical models to predict the September
monthly mean Arctic sea ice
extent (e.g. see appendix of Stroeve et al. 2014 in GRL doi: 10.1002 / 2014GL059388; Witness the Arctic article by Hamilton et al. 2014 http://www.arcus.org/witness-the-arctic/2014/2/article/21066).
Snow indices that consider only
monthly mean snow cover
extent over Eurasia have a moderate, but statistically significant correlation with the DJF AO.
Ice
extent (
monthly means, April) southern border of 30 % ice concentration, in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = April 2011, orange = April 2010, green = April 2009, blue = April 2008).
Kauker et al (Alfred Wegener Institute [AWI], Ocean Atmosphere Systems [OASys]-RRB-, 3.95 (± 0.39), Modeling We estimate a
monthly mean September sea - ice
extent of 3.95 ± 0.39 million km2.
From further ensemble runs with differing initial conditions we conclude that the initial ice conditions in March can be responsible for a difference of 1 - 2 million km2 in the
monthly mean September sea ice
extent.
NIPR / UT (Kimura et al.), 4.67, Statistical (Same as July) The
monthly mean ice
extent in September will be about 4.67 million km2.
Bosse (Citizen Scientist / Public), 4.1 (± 0.43), Statistical (Same as June) Just as in the two years before I calculate the value for the September - minimum of the arctic sea ice
extent of the year n (NSIDC
monthly mean for September) from the Ocean Heat Content (0... 700m depth) northward 65 ° N during JJAS of the year n - 1.
UTokyo (Kimura et al.), 4.68, Statistical
Monthly mean ice
extent in September will be about 4.68 million km2.
AWI Consortium (Kauker et al.), 4.32 (± 0.30), Modeling (ice - ocean) We estimate a
monthly mean September sea - ice
extent of 4.32 + - 0.30 million km2.
Starting in 2017 we are accepting both pan-Arctic and pan-Antarctic sea ice
extent (either one or both) of the September
monthly mean.
Ice
extent (
monthly means, June) southern border of 30 % ice concentration, in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = June 2012, orange =
mean June 1999 - 2008, purple =
mean June 1980 - 1999, green =
mean June 1979 - 2008)[Gerland et al.].
If other data sources for sea ice
extent are used, the corresponding
mean monthly ice
extent values can be adjusted by an offset to roughly correspond to the NSIDC value.
If these sources are used, the corresponding
mean monthly ice
extent values can be adjusted by an offset to roughly correspond to the NSIDC value.
Ice
extent (
monthly means, July) southern border of 30 % ice concentration, in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = July 2010, orange = July 2009, green = July 2008, blue = July 2007).
Fig. 5: Ice
extent (
monthly means, June) southern border of 30 % ice concentration in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = June 2011, orange =
mean June 1999 - 2008, purple =
mean June 1980 - 1999, green =
mean June 1979 - 2008).
Monthly mean sea ice
extent for the month of July from 1979 through 2011 based on the NASA Team sea ice algorithm.
Ice
extent (
monthly means, July) southern border at 30 % ice concentration, in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = July 2011, orange =
mean July 1999 - 2008, purple =
Mean July 1980 - 1999, green =
mean July 1979 - 2008).