PRESS RELEASE — Aug 25 — Casual dating site forgetdinner.co.uk is reporting a 200 % increase in membership over the last 3
months as the recession begins to bite.
And this is what we've seen happen just in the last few
months as the recession fully set in and people realized the days of easy credit and high oil prices are gone.
Not exact matches
He was referring to a prediction he had made nine
months earlier that, before the
recession was over, media companies would experience a decline in advertising revenue of
as much
as 40 percent.
Long bear markets, defined
as a drop of 20 percent or more in stock prices over the course of
months, do tend to correlate with
recessions.
November marked the 10th straight
month that job growth has exceeded 200,000, the longest stretch since 1994 and further confirmation the economy is weathering slowdowns in China and the euro zone,
as well
as a
recession in Japan.
In evaluating the opinions that you hear to the contrary, keep in mind that the consensus of economists,
as measured by the Blue Chip Economic Survey and others, has never forecast an oncoming
recession, and usually remained rosy even several
months after the actual
recession was eventually determined to have started.
Fund managers cut their exposure to both commodities and emerging market equities to record lows this
month,
as oil and metals seem unable to shrug off price weakness and China
recession fears mount, new research shows.
I did that for a 4
month duration taking that
as the avg midpoint of past
recessions» peak to trough.
Hiring soared in Maryland last
month,
as employers added 11,500 jobs, powering the strongest three -
month surge of job creation the state has seen since the Great
Recession.
In 2009,
as Chicago manufacturer Wiegel Tool Works was emerging from the
recession and wanting to hire again, company president Aaron Wiegel noticed that his job ads for tool and die makers were going unfilled for
months.
After earlier stints
as a junior finance minister and deputy governor, he took over
as Governor of the Bank of Canada seven
months before the global
recession really began to bite in September 2008, and is credited with keeping his homeland free from the worst ravages of the crisis.
Moreover, core inflation moved ahead of its level of 6
months ago, and leading economic measures continued to slip (though we don't see them
as being indicative of
recession risk at present).
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weaknes
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence
as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weaknes
as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst,
as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weaknes
as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming
recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the
months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
Growth of the «broad» M3 money supply in the US has slowed to a 2pc rate over the last three
months (annualised)
as the Fed shrinks its $ 4.4 trillion (# 3.1 trillion) balance sheet, close to stall speed and pointing to a «growth
recession» by early 2019.
As we saw in the
months following The Great
Recession, when economic growth slowed abruptly, the Fed moved to jumpstart the economy by lowering its target for the federal funds rate.
Prime Minister Harper brushed off the official
recession as «a couple of weak
months.»
Last week was not a crash, though a free - fall appears increasingly possible,
as the reality of emerging
recession (and all that it implies for fresh credit risks, sovereign defaults, fiscal imbalances, banking strains and other problems) will likely smash against the consensus view of economic expansion in next few
months.
As ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan says, it took the Lehman collapse ten
months into
recession in September 2008 to «wake people up».
It marked the 10th straight
month that job growth has exceeded 200,000, the longest stretch since 1994 and further confirmation the economy is weathering slowdowns in China and the euro zone,
as well
as a
recession in Japan.
A
recession is sometimes technically defined
as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, however, many economists define such a pullback in growth
as a significant fall in activity across the economy that lasts more than a few
months.
He cited the banking collapse and
recession, together with the effect of the coalition's deficit reduction agenda,
as reasons for stagnant growth in the last nine
months.
In a few short weeks, local authorities up and down the country will go red
as voters give their verdict on 12
months of dismal Tory - Lib Dem cutbacks and
recession.
Yet, fifteen
months on, the crisis is every bit
as profound,
as we teeter on the brink of a double - dip
recession.
As of last
month, six years after the Great
Recession began, Clinton said the U.S. has recovered the jobs lost during the economic slump.
«Ten consecutive
months of employment growth is very encouraging and shows people with disabilities are striving to work
as they move toward pre-Great
Recession employment levels,» he added.
Officially, the Great
Recession — the economic free - fall that shredded state and local budgets
as the century's first decade neared its close — ended about 18
months ago.
Now 68 and looking fit, Yamanouchi took over
as president in November 2008, two
months after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy triggered the worst global
recession since the 1930s.
As we saw in the
months following The Great
Recession, when economic growth slowed abruptly, the Fed moved to jumpstart the economy by lowering its target for the federal funds rate.
A bear market can lead to a
recession which is defined by Investopedia
as, «A significant decline in activity across the economy, lasting longer than a few
months.
The accompanying damage is consistent with what John Hussman observed a few
months ago in The Risk of Conceding
Recession, which noted «Once an ongoing (and in my view, probably deepening) recession becomes broadly recognized, we may observe abrupt losses as the likelihood of more sustained earnings disappointments and much broader default risk becomes reflected in one fell swoo
Recession, which noted «Once an ongoing (and in my view, probably deepening)
recession becomes broadly recognized, we may observe abrupt losses as the likelihood of more sustained earnings disappointments and much broader default risk becomes reflected in one fell swoo
recession becomes broadly recognized, we may observe abrupt losses
as the likelihood of more sustained earnings disappointments and much broader default risk becomes reflected in one fell swoop.»
As recession uncertainties resolve, and we observe a normal ebb - and - flow of investor sentiment and short - term price movement, I expect that we'll observe at least some of these opportunities in the
months ahead.
Moreover, core inflation moved ahead of its level of 6
months ago, and leading economic measures continued to slip (though we don't see them
as being indicative of
recession risk at present).
I've talked about 12 - 18 between curve inversion and
recession months as a rule of thumb.
As discussed last month, this is a bit of a too much of a good thing crash all around — tax cuts into a strong economy sending inflation and interest rates high enough to lead the Federal Reserve to (potentially) over react and raise rates too high, causing a recession and growing debt issues as the government refinances debt at higher rates, all while a tax cut reduces federal revenue
As discussed last
month, this is a bit of a too much of a good thing crash all around — tax cuts into a strong economy sending inflation and interest rates high enough to lead the Federal Reserve to (potentially) over react and raise rates too high, causing a
recession and growing debt issues
as the government refinances debt at higher rates, all while a tax cut reduces federal revenue
as the government refinances debt at higher rates, all while a tax cut reduces federal revenues.
Although there is some evidence that the worldwide economy is emerging from
recession and we began to see signs of recovery in the market
as we moved into the improved weather
months, we still expect challenging market conditions for the remainder of 2010 compared to 2009.
I keep the time to maturity fairly short — originally 6
months, but now 12
as the Great
Recession has eased — to minimize the likelihood that something goes horribly wrong with the economy or the bond issuer before my bond is redeemed.
(The UK market's high average return can almost be entirely explained by a couple of
months following the 1973 - 1974 bear market where the MSCI UK index rocketed higher
as investors anticipated the end of that period's
recession.)
Los Angeles, June 25, 2009 - While over five million jobs were lost in the past few
months as a result of the
recession, Animal Behavior College understands why the pet industry has proven resilient during tough economic times.
Cards that carry 0 percent introductory rates are more common than during the peak of the
recession and are being offered with longer terms, lasting
as long
as 21
months.
These ritualistic daily self - improvements make up the majority of the focus of Boardman's solo exhibition: a terrible perm, a dye job four
months overdue for a touch - up (or «
recession highlights»
as my friend Allie Bashuk sometimes lovingly refers to it), running mascara.
Undoubtedly, some will cite the
recession as a reason to open up ORV access and encourage tourism but, according to Audubon NC, tourism has remained steady this past year - and visitation levels are up during the
months affected by the current protective agreements.
Although, this time, there was only a short time lag before law firms felt the effect of the
recession it may still be 12 to 18
months before the legal market returns to a level that can be described
as normal.
Over the next 12
months law firms will once more be ramping up their investments in legal IT
as the country climbs out of
recession — but what sort of technologies should they be looking at?
Betrayed by staggering increases
as a five - year mortgage at eight per cent became a three -
month term of 21 per cent; facing a
recession, wage and price controls and the nightmare of Trudeau's National Energy Policy, we received anonymous calls from once proud homeowners with directions to pick up the keys.
I contacted her last
month as she was on her way out of Pearson Airport in Toronto, and asked how agents are reacting to the
recession.
As you'll note sales are down from 18
months ago, and those were
recession numbers.
The prognosis for the housing market in Canada in the first six to nine
months of 2009 is «somewhat static, given continued volatility in financial markets and the threat of
recession, but
as stability returns to the financial sector, housing markets are expected to bounce back,» says Re / Max in its Housing Market Outlook for 2009.
But this has come screeching to a halt
as the dollar has strengthened in recent
months and the
recession has gone global, putting a crimp in international travel.