The next few
months of economic indicators will have a big effect on the campaign — and not just the Canadian ones
Not exact matches
Last
month, my fellow columnist Mike Moffatt published a list
of the Canadian
economic indicators that will influence the election campaign.
«The decline in confidence was fueled by a somewhat less optimistic outlook for business and job prospects in the coming
months,» Lynn Franco, Director
of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement.
The latest
economic indicator showed that the Greek economy shrank by 0.4 % in the last three
months of 2016.
PMI surveys are the first
indicators of economic conditions published each
month and are therefore available well ahead
of comparable data produced by government bodies.
The red dots show the
indicator itself, which is quite noisy, and the 3 -
month moving average, which is more useful as an
indicator of coincident
economic activity.
Strong
economic growth from diverse sectors, rising consumption and income growth are strengthening macroeconomic
indicators such as exports, which now make up 17.3 %
of GDP; remittances, which constitute 8.6 %
of GDP; and foreign reserves, which cover over six
months of imports.
The BlackRock GPS — which combines traditional
economic indicators with big data signals such as web searches and text mining
of corporate conference calls — suggests a higher growth rate over the coming 12
months than currently reflected in consensus estimates.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort
of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion
of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period
of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment
indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk
of an oncoming recession, which would become more
of a factor if we observe a substantial widening
of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the
months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe
economic weakness.
The private sector economists are surveyed for only a selective number
of aggregate
economic and financial
indicators: real gross domestic product (GDP) growth; GDP inflation, nominal GDP;, the 3 -
month treasury bill rate;, the 10 - year government bond rate;, the unemployment rate; the, consumer price index; the exchange rate (US cents / Cdn $); and finally, and U.S. real GDP growth.
The Index
of Lagging
Economic Indicators ticked 0.1 % higher (2.4 % y / y) last
month following a 0.3 % October rise, revised from 0.2 %.
The
indicator reflects the difference between analysts who are optimistic about forthcoming
economic development
of Germany within six
months and those who are pessimistic.
Something I think has been somewhat overlooked in general euphoria over the strength
of economic indicators, is the that commercial and industrial loans for all
of the banks in the United States are now only up one - tenth
of one percent in the last 12
months.
Our assessment across a variety
of economic indicators suggests that the risk
of recession in the United States is approximately 10 % over the next twelve
months.
Following the vote, the country's Purchasing Managers» Index — a measure
of manufacturing output and a key
economic indicator — suffered its largest one -
month drop since 2009, when the global recession was at its worst.
In fact, the state's existing composite business cycle index — also known as the Index
of Coincident
Economic Indicators, based on language identical to what's laid out in Cuomo's proposed infrastructure fund — actually did decline for three consecutive
months at the end
of 2014, as illustrated in the chart below.
Trend continues for Americans with disabilities as
economic indicators improve for seventh consecutive
month, according to today's National Trends in Disability Employment — Monthly Update (nTIDE), issued by Kessler Foundation and University
of New Hampshire's Institute on Disability (UNH - IOD).
Americans with disabilities reached a milestone this
month, as the major
economic indicators showed increases for the 24th consecutive
month, according to today's National Trends in Disability Employment — Monthly Update (nTIDE), issued by Kessler Foundation and the University
of New Hampshire's Institute on Disability (UNH - IOD).
ShareThe thing about
economic indicators is that you need consistency over a period
of months to show a trend.
Bellwether auctions next
month in New York — where big ticket offerings include Alberto Giacometti's chariot sculpture valued at more than $ 100 million at Sotheby's — will be a better
indicator of whether art prices are peaking or if
economic uncertainty is trickling down to the art market, they said.
Cement production — a strong
indicator of economic activity, but also an emitting activity — was much lower than the previous year, more than 5 % down in each
of the first four
months of 2017.
«The SARB Leading
Indicator has been pointing upwards for some
months, and the Barclays Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, a useful high frequency
indicator of economic direction has also moved back into «expansionary» territory in recent
months.
Says Lynn Franco, Director
of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: «Despite this
month's improvement in confidence, the overall Index remains at historically low levels.
Lynn Franco, the Conference Board's director
of economic indicators, said the improvement in November came because more people expressed optimism about the direction
of the economy in the next six
months.
A metropolitan area makes the list if three elementary
indicators of economic and housing health improve for at least six
months: single - family housing permits, employment and home prices.
A metropolitan area makes the IMI list if three
indicators of economic and housing health improve for at least six
months: single - family housing permits, employment and home prices.
While recent
economic reports suggest that home building took a pause at the beginning
of 2013, leading
indicators point to more growth for housing in the
months ahead.