Among millennial first - time homebuyers, less than half (48 percent) expected
more Fed rate hikes in 2018.
Millennial first - time homebuyers are even more optimistic; with less than half (48 %) expecting there will be
any more Fed rate hike in 2018.
The Fed has raised rates five times since late 2015 — and some expect two or three
more Fed rate hikes in 2018.
The futures markets currently predict two
more Fed rate hikes this year (source: Bloomberg).
With respect to interest rates, we continue to see a bifurcation for U.S. rates where shorter - dated yields move higher in response to possibly two or three
more Fed rate hikes, while the U.S. Treasury 10 - year yield trades in a 2.25 percent to 2.75 percent range, with a temporary move toward 2 percent possible if geopolitical risks become realities.
About 46 percent of respondents to the survey see two
more Fed rate hikes in 2018 and the same percentage see three.
«Strong economic momentum and accelerating price and wage gains should lead to three
more Fed rate hikes this year,» Kathy Bostjancic, head of U.S. macro investor services at Oxford Economics USA, wrote in response to the survey.
Not exact matches
The
Fed maintained its forecast for two
more rate hikes this year, following speculation on whether budding inflation would push it toward raising its outlook to three
more increases.
And as the debt load grows, efforts by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy with lower
rates would be
more likely to
feed runaway inflation.
Most analysts assume Brexit will keep the
Fed from raising interest
rates, in part because that would put
more upward pressure on the currency.
But others were reassured the
Fed was not ramping up market expectations for
more rate hikes.
If there's additional pressure on
rates as a result of the U.S.
Fed, that's just one
more reason Poloz may want to hold fire.
With U.S. unemployment fairly low and prices set to rise, the
Fed is clearly preparing to raise interest
rates more.
But some traders had expected the
Fed to clearly signalwhether it will pull the trigger on two or three
more rate hikes this year.
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Fed raised
rates.
With the
Fed likely to signal
more rate hikes, Sit Investment Associates» Bryce Doty foresees bumps ahead for bonds.
Nevertheless, the
Fed's maneuvering, economists say, is a tricky calibration, aiming to get its benchmark interest
rate back to
more historic levels of around 2 percent.
On top of the
more buoyant outlook for overall growth,
Fed officials cut their estimates for the unemployment
rate, to 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, two - tenths below the previous numbers.
That's because investors had expected the
Fed to signal a
more hawkish outlook, such as an announcement about further
rate hikes next year.
Some investors had anticipated the
Fed would also take a
more hawkish tone on future
rate hikes on expectations of stronger growth.
But at that point, the
Fed chair Janet Yellen and the other members of the interest
rate - setting committee seemed to side with the idea that Trump's policies would do
more to help the economy than hurt it.
The
Fed's low interest
rate policy has driven
more and
more money into bond funds as investors search for higher yields.
Then again, the
more the market falls on the fear of an interest
rate hike, the less likely it becomes that the
Fed will pull the trigger on it in the near future, which will then push prices back up.
The
Fed raised interest
rates last December for the first time in nearly a decade, and at that time projected four
more hikes in 2016.
«I think [the stock] reaction to his comments about slightly strong growth and that the
Fed was
more likely to raise
rates more in 2018 than investors had anticipated,» said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones.
Bond yields rose to the highs of the day as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell laid out a case where the
Fed could raise
rates more than it has forecast.
Asked about
rate hikes in 2018, the
Fed Chair signaled that the option for
more than three increases remains open.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released minutes from its meeting at the end of July, and it looks like
Fed officials broached the subject of raising interest
rates earlier than planned, but ultimately decided to wait for
more evidence of an improved economic outlook.
That expected stimulus has led several policymakers to say the
Fed will likely raise
rates more quickly, but Powell said new policies could also ease the
Fed's burden.
Bond yields rose after
Fed Chair Jerome Powell laid out a case where the
Fed could raise interest
rates more than it currently forecasts.
Rosengren, an historically dovish
Fed policymaker who has become
more confident about hiking
rates this year, cited Britain's vote to leave the European Union as an example of U.S. resistance to shocks from abroad.
And if tomorrow's job report shows no signs of real wage growth (which is what economists predict it won't), the
Fed's case for a
rate hike will start to look
more faith - based than empirically driven.
Weighed against unemployment, which has dropped to a 16 - year low at 4.1 percent, that weakness has puzzled economists and made some policy makers declare the
Fed should hold off on additional
rate increases until prices respond
more briskly.
The
Fed claims this «should put downward pressure on longer - term interest
rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions
more accommodative.»
The 2.9 % rise in December average hourly earnings «might put a little bit
more pressure on the
Fed to accelerate the path [of interest
rate hikes], but I really don't think it's going to be that significant a push,» said Dan North, chief economist at Euler Hermes North America.
In his job as an activist at the Center for Popular Democracy, Barkan led a successful effort to get
Fed officials thinking
more about low - income Americans as they conduct monetary policy, often arguing against interest
rate hikes in the face of high underemployment and weak wage growth.
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Fed raised
rates.
Markets anticipate at least two
more interest
rate hikes this year after an increase in March, according to CME Group
fed funds futures.
Pretty soon, we will be back to debating when «good» economic news is «bad» for the markets because it increases the chances the
Fed will suddenly get
more aggressive on
rate hikes.
More from Balancing Priorities: What a
rate hike means for your credit card What to do with your bond portfolio as
Fed rates rise Credit scores are set to rise
Economic growth well above expectations could be an issue for stocks because it increases the chances the
Fed will suddenly get
more aggressive on
rate hikes.
This should not surprise anyone, since economists have been pondering for
more than a year now when the
Fed might raise
rates.
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The
Fed is likely to signal
more rate hikes this year.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testifies Thursday, and he's expected to stick to comments that the
Fed could raise
rates more than forecast.
The
Fed is likely to raise interest
rates three or four
more times this year, and that will have far - reaching consequences for consumers.»
But markets reacted
more to the fact that the
Fed will feel compelled to keep inflation in line with interest
rate hikes.
Bond yields rose and stocks slumped after an unexpected rise in consumer inflation to its fastest pace in a year, making it
more likely the
Fed will raise interest
rates three or
more times this year.
Rosenberg thinks the
Fed should start increasing
rates in early 2015, but acknowledges the consensus sees it
more likely at the end of next year or early 2016.
In the end, the
Fed should stop treating the unemployment
rate as an indicator of whether we need
more stimulus.