It is, however, a classic Lib tactical vote seat, I estimate that
more Lab voters voter Lib than Lab now.
Not exact matches
As of November 7,
more Republican - affiliated Pennsylvania
voters had cast early ballots than Democratic
voters, according to TargetSmart
voter file data obtained by the NBC News Data Analytics
Lab.
My research in the marginals has consistently found 2010 Conservative
voters more likely than 2010 Labour
voters to say they are switching to UKIP (16 % compared to 8 % in my latest round of Con -
Lab marginals, released last week).
In practice of course we can't actually be that confident that
voters in a tight LD -
Lab marginal will behave the same way as in a seat where the Lib Dems have a 20 % majority, so it's a bit of a shame Ashcroft didn't include some
more challenging LD -
Lab fights like Cambridge, Hornsey & Wood Green or Bermondsey.
In Con -
Lab marginals, while Labour
voters were much
more likely to give their second preference to the Lib Dems than to the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats were
more likely to give their second preferences to the Tories than Labour — albeit by a smaller margin.
So even if each Conservative seat has the same electorate as each
Lab seat, Conservative seats will typically continue to contain
more voters.