So if the case for
more Labour seats from AV anytime this decade is dubious, what about the impact of a yes vote on the coalition?
The party has decided to scale back its campaign against the Lib Dems and instead aggressively target up to 20
more Labour seats.
The plan — for which I, then a deputy chairman of the party, was responsible — helped us to win 23
more Labour seats and nine more Lib Dem seats than we would have done on a uniform swing.
In 2010, though the Conservatives did not achieve the national vote share they wanted, the party's targeting strategy meant it won 23
more Labour seats and 9 more Liberal Democrat seats than it would have done on a uniform swing.
Not exact matches
Together with VW's home state of Lower Saxony,
labour representatives hold
more than half of the 20
seats on the group's supervisory board that ratifies key decisions on investment, plant closures and executive appointments.
«Clearly I would have preferred to have got
more votes than we did, but this was always going to be a tough fight for
Labour - it's a
seat that we've never won,» he said.
The Lib Dems got four less than expected, taking four
seats; the Conservatives two
more than forecast, on 307; while
Labour held three
more seats than predicted, taking 258.
What's
more, the next election will also be fought on new boundaries and 50 fewer
seats — unless Theresa May takes advantage of the turmoil in the
Labour party and goes for a snap election in the autumn, as many are now expecting.
«Under First Past the Post this would likely be disastrous for them, splitting the
Labour vote and allowing the Conservatives or UKIP, or whoever, to gain
more seats from them.
Yet the Tories won sixty
seats more than
Labour.
But unlike May, Heath was booted out of Number 10 to make way for Harold Wilson, whose
Labour party won a mere four
seats more than the Tories.
Taking all these factors together - regional variations, over-statement of the
Labour vote and
more vigorous campaigning in target
seats - and we would expect a modest Conservative majority of 30 to 50.
The Conservatives in 2010 got
more votes nationally than
Labour in 2005... and fewer
seats.
Indeed,
Labour gained some
seats without even canvassing last year, such was the level of enthusiasm among voters based on little
more than viral Facebook videos and a pledge to build a fairer Britain.
I think activists can work to get Greens and Respect elected in a handful of FPTP
seats and we must all hope for an embarrassingly massive Tory landslide (300
seats or so) on < 50 % of the vote that will make everyone see what an absurd situation we are in, make Cameron's parliamentary party
more unruly and nekedly nasty and — crucially — smash the
Labour Party so hard that both its right and its left give up all hope of ever winning a FPTP election again, and destroy the hubris that decrees that they never collaborate with other progressive / left forces.
It won't make
Labour any
more popular among the voters it needs to save its marginal
seats at the election.»
One possible development in this scenario is that several months into a Con - Lib government (coalition or otherwise) the polls suggest both
Labour and the Liberal Democrats would win
more seats if there were another general election.
He polled 1000 people by telephone in each of 16 different
seats (15
Labour seats with 2010 leads over the SNP of at least 33 points but often 40 points or
more; and 2 Lib Dem
seats — Gordon and Inverness).
In London,
Labour performed
more strongly in boroughs where it already had a healthy lead over the Conservatives when the
seats were last contested, in 2014.
The Conservatives, though, were thought likely to be the bigger losers, having done well in 2011 and therefore defending far
more seats than
Labour, and having also been
more damaged by UKIP's dramatic rise.
Along with the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, Reeves represents a northern
seat and believes the party has to do
more to recognise key
Labour voters» concerns about immigration and welfare.
They were undone, however, by a collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote which meant the party lost
more seats to
Labour where
Labour was the second - placed candidate than they gained directly from the Lib Dems where they were the challengers.
The Conservatives tend to pile up large majorities in safe
seats and because the planned redistribution of
seats did not take place after the 2010 election,
Labour has a number of
seats with below average electorates, making the vote - to -
seat ratio work all the
more in its favour.
Such an outcome might still leave
Labour with just three
seats more than the Conservatives, but it still represents a
more attractive prospect than the one Panelbase portrayed in their previous poll a fortnight ago.
The other two envisioned Miliband as prime minister: one had the Tories on 270 to 285, unable to form a government; the other had
Labour with slightly
more votes than the Tories, but with slightly fewer, or the same, number of
seats.
Under First Past the Post this would likely be disastrous for them, splitting the
Labour vote and allowing the Conservatives (or UKIP, or whoever) to gain
more seats from them.
It seems somewhat likely that we'll end up with the Tories having
more seats than
Labour, but the parties of the left having a majority of
seats in parliament.
Ruth Davidson's Conservatives are now the official Holyrood opposition, with seven
seats more than
Labour.
They may well pick up a handful of
seats from
Labour (two in north London look pretty much a done deal)-- I think they will — but the starting - blocks are such that they can pile on votes in
Labour strongholds without getting
more result than that.
Five years ago, Welsh
Labour did very well in the Welsh local elections, increasing the number of council
seats they held by around 70 %; by the end of that night they had substantially
more councillor in Wales than did the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats put together.
The lack of any net advantage elsewhere means the Conservatives can afford to lose no
more than 23
seats to
Labour if they are to remain the largest party.
Indeed, it is entirely possible that the Conservatives could win
more votes and gain fewer
seats than
Labour.
After all,
Labour have got
more seats to lose than the Tories and disillusioned
Labour voters are likely to be highly responsive to a «Mansion Tax».
I would imagine that a «better the devil you know» attitude will prevail in the event of (as I predict) the Tories having a substantial number of
seats more than
Labour, and the Lib Dems retaining rather
more of their
seats than the polls predict, at the May election.
Tony Blair's donation of # 106,000 to
Labour this week — divided between candidates in the party's 106 designated target
seats — doesn't make him the party largest individual donor (there were seven individuals who gave
more in 2014) but he is certainly the most controversial.
And if it does not happen the tally of
seats the SNP might fail to win would be no
more than four, two of them picked up by
Labour and one each by the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.
If, for example the Conservatives take 305
seats and the Lib Dems 25, there is
more likely to be a continuation of the present coalition arrangement than a grand alliance of say
Labour on 265, ScotNats on 35 and Lib Dems on 25.
Of the three second - placed parties who won nine
seats, UKIP gained the largest share of the county - wide vote,
more than 10 % ahead of
Labour.
If
Labour had finished with just 15 %
more seats than the Tories that would have been a dire night for
Labour, and a Tory - win by any reasonable definition.
Most of the elections this time around were city elections, where
Labour holds many
more seats, and they did best in London.
They make up
more than half the electorate in the vast majority of the English swing
seats that
Labour needs to win to secure a workable majority.
He then proceeded according to that view and negotiated primarily with the Conservatives, who had won 48
more seats than the incumbent
Labour Party.
In practice,
Labour won
more seats because
more seats were available in
Labour - supporting areas (most notably London).
Switching from
Labour to UKIP in a
Labour marginal, or switching to UKIP from anyone in a safe
Labour seat, is clearly not going to make a Miliband premiership
more likely.
Another way of putting it is that Lib Dem MPs are
more likely to hold on to their
seats — other things being equal — than the Tories or
Labour.
Before 2011, the
seat was solidly
Labour with former First Minister Jack McConnell winning his
seat in 2007 with 48.4 % of the vote (23 %
more than his SNP opponent).
Watch: the extraordinary moment when The
Labour Party campaign chief Douglas Alexander realised he'd lost his
seat to Scottish National Party (SNP) 20 - year - old politics student Mhairi Black by six thousand votes.Watch
more: Douglas Alexander's concession speech here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7-ZMZeR6a4
In
seats where
Labour is defending a majority of
more than 25 points the swing in the poll from
Labour to the SNP since 2010 is 24 points, rather higher than the 19.5 point swing for Scotland as a whole.
We polled a thousand votes
more than
Labour in the recent Euro elections in the South West
seat and are campaigning hard to go one better at the forthcoming Westminster election.
It is a marginal
seat between Plaid and the
Labour Party, and until the 2016 Assembly election, had never been held by the same party for
more than one consecutive term.