The «hiatus» says
more about natural variability then whether the models are right.
Not exact matches
While it has gotten
about one degree warmer since 1900, there is no clear evidence that current climate is anywhere outside of
natural variability, and mankind is, at this time, successfully living in climate extremes ranging from the far North to the Equator where climate differences are much
more than 3C.
My colleagues and I were using what we call proxy records, like corals and tree rings, and ice cores to try and extend the climate record back in time so that we could learn
more about natural climate
variability.
Much of what is of concern to the military is extreme weather events (e.g. Pakistan floods) driven by
natural climate
variability and random weather roulette (concerns
about sea level rise and the opening of the Arctic Ocean are linked
more closely to AGW)
A
more reasoned approach is to take the full weight of our understanding
about the Earth and its systems and go beyond asking if any particular event is due to global warming or
natural variability.
Well, maybe there's an element of
natural variability in the global climate that doesn't care
about your SUV any
more than it did back in the medieval warm period.
Your comment
about natural variability being such a «wild card» sound much
more to belong in the white than in the red box though, so maybe I'm interpreting the flag numbers different than you?
Anyhow, 1 C from CO2 doubling and
about.3 C we have already gotten from present rise to around 400 ppm [from 280 to 420 ppm will
more than 1/2 of 1 C increase], leaving
about.5 C increase attributable to «
natural variability».
More importantly, conventional temperature analyses need to incorporate longer term
natural variability that appears
about twice the conventional standard deviation.
(Perhaps, we would not be greatly concerned
about a one degree increase; perhaps the
natural variability is
more.)
More ominously, a climate with large magnitude
natural long - term
variability in general is a climate very sensitive to imposed forcings, raising concerns
about extreme impacts due to future climate change).
Via Grist via Tom Raftery
More on What You Need To Know
About Arctic Ice 2009 Arctic Summer Sea Ice Minimum Third Lowest on Record - «Well Outside»
Natural Variability Arctic Ocean Ice - Free in Summer by 2015, New Research Shows - Greenland Ice Sheet Shows Rapid Losses, Too Melting Ice Could Lead to Massive Waves of Climate Refugees How Will Global Warming Change Our Oceans?
«Assessing the past response to
natural variability of iron will enable scientists to develop
more quantitative predictions
about the possible efficacy of adding it ourselves in the future,» said Winckler.
So before we demonize anthropogenic CO2 for a new and «unnatural» forcing, how
about discovering a little
more about the «complex interplay of
natural internal
variabilities?