When a party wins
more constituency seats than it would be entitled to from its proportion of (party list) votes, overhang seats can occur.
Not exact matches
Opponents of government introduced an amendment reversing that disparity, and the final version of the Bill contained a compromise in which the pressure to guarantee new
seats to the industrial
constituencies was
more evident than hostility to the rotten boroughs.
However, there is one statistically significant result that suggests that
constituency factors and re-election concerns might be affecting MPs» positions: MPs elected in
seats with higher levels of UKIP vote share are
more likely to be uncommitted on the referendum.
Remember, there are no truly safe
seats: no candidate in the last election got
more than half of all the potential votes in their
constituency.
Speaking at the campaign launch of the deputy Central regional minister and parliamentary candidate for the Agona East
Constituency, Queenstar Pokuaa Sawyer, Mr. Asiedu Nketia popularly known as «General Mosquito» alleged that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) have hatched a plan to embarrass the vice president by winning
more seats in the Central region to send a message to Ghanaians that the vice president is not popular and influential even in his own region.
He will rely on his ability to win the
constituency seat which he easily won Falkirk West in 2011, with 55 % of the vote — 20 %
more than his Labour opponent.
The electorate of any
constituency was to be as close as possible to a country - specific electoral quota to reduce malapportionment; where rigid adherence to the «as far as practicable» guidelines would mean a large disparity between electorates, the commissions were expressly empowered to form
seats which combine parts of two (and where major disparity still remains,
more) local government areas.
Even in 2004, when the number of
seats in Scotland was reduced, this was to reflect a political decision that the new
seats, unlike the old ones, should have
more - or-less the same number of electors as English
constituencies.
All the parties are busy viewing the outcome through a Westminster
constituency lens, leading the Scottish Conservatives to believe they could win as many as 15
seats next month and, perhaps even
more ambitiously, Scottish Labour an additional seven.
Voters in marginal
constituencies like Glenda Jackson's Hampstead and Kilburn know
more about parties» policy positions than those in safe
seats like Gordon Brown's Kirkaldy and Cowdenbeath, according to research carried out by the University of Nottingham's Caitlin Milazzo.
On these national support figures and assuming they would be contesting at least thirty
constituencies, the Labour Party would need a lot of luck to win
more than one or two
seats in terms of their total number of
seats at a general election contest.
However, the fractured political landscape (in particular relating to the likely level of Fine Gael and Labour
seat losses) and the favourable impact of the boundary changes associated with the 2012
Constituency Commission report means that Fianna Fail would achieve
more success in translating these support levels into Dail
seat numbers than they had at the 2011 contest.
Over recent days four
more candidates have been selected to contest
constituency seats at next year's Scottish Parliament elections.
For instance, knowing that in my local
constituency, we have roughly 2.89 x
more power than the average UK voter due to it being a marginal
seat, could help encourage people to go out and vote knowing they actually could make a difference.
Politics.co.uk initially focused on battleground
seats between the two main parties,
constituencies in large cities, and a handful of
more suburban and rural safe
seats that were picked up along the way.
Rather than looking at self - reported levels of turnout in post-election surveys ComRes did regressions on actual levels of turnouts in
constituencies by their demographic profiles, finding the usual patterns of higher turnout in
seats with
more middle class people and older people, lower turnout in
seats with
more C2DE voters and younger voters.
Where is has a massive effect is in Lib Dem held
seats — the Liberal Democrats get much
more support in those
seats when you prompt people to think about their own
constituency.
The New Patriotic Party (NPP) parliamentary Candidate for the Awutu Senya West
constituency, George Andah, appears to be
more concerned about the marital status of his main opponent and incumbent Member of Parliament, Hanna Tetteh, as the race for the
seat heats up.
Among other results, Lord Ashcroft's polls suggested that the growth in SNP support would translate into
more than 50
seats; [124] that there was little overall pattern in Labour and Conservative Party marginals; [125] that the Green Party MP Caroline Lucas would retain her
seat; [126] that both Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and UKIP leader Nigel Farage would face very close races to be elected in their own
constituencies; [127] and that Liberal Democrat MPs would enjoy an incumbency effect that would lose fewer MPs than their national polling implied.
Constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft suggest that prompting people to think about the candidates in their constituency when asking people whom they will vote for results in much more Liberal Democrat voting in Liberal Dem
Constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft suggest that prompting people to think about the candidates in their
constituency when asking people whom they will vote for results in much more Liberal Democrat voting in Liberal Dem
constituency when asking people whom they will vote for results in much
more Liberal Democrat voting in Liberal Democrat
seats.
Like all winner - take - all voting methods, IRV tends to exaggerate the number of
seats won by the largest parties; small parties without majority support in any given
constituency are unlikely to earn
seats in a legislature, although their supporters will be
more likely to be part of the final choice between the two strongest candidates.
Significantly, at the 2007 Scottish Parliament election, it was John who won the Roxburgh and Berwickshire
seat (which makes up
more than 60 % of this Westminster
constituency) on a swing of no less than 9.4 % from the Lib Dems.
As a result, the deputy prime minister said he would instruct his MPs to vote against another bill which would have cut the number of MPs by redrawing the
constituency boundaries — a change opposed by many of the 57 - strong Lib Dem MPs since it is expected they would lose 15 or
more seats.
This way, people still have a single MP who represents their
constituency, and all MPs can say they were supported by
more than half the voters in their
seat.
It will be «pursued in parallel» with the change that the Tories expect to most benefit them: redrawing
constituency boundaries to make
seats of
more equal size.
Some of the above arguments still apply, but I'm not convinced that an independent MP can have his biggest impact by speaking or voting in tightly controlled party votes in the House of Commons, even those directly affecting his
constituency (one of the many reasons it's such a shame he won the
seat — the people of his
constituency needed meaningful representation
more than many others).
Labour will have won too many
constituency seats to win any
more through the regional top - up, as was the case in 2007 in those four regions (see results linked to this BBC summary).
«I am tired of him, I struggled to win this
seat for this party, I started with three votes now I am on 4,025, I moved President Akufo - Addo from negative 1,500 from 2012 in the
constituency and he now won 6,000
more against former President Mahama», he emphasized.
«What is particularly missing at this time is her coming out in public, meeting her constituents, talking to TV cameras, explaining what happened, perhaps being a little humble about all of this and giving a satisfactory explanation to her constituents and the wider Conservative family to be quite frank, because speaking to people from the West Midlands region where she is an MP, these things do have a knock - on effect and there are other marginal
seats far closer to her
constituency where people have got Labour majorities to overturn which may be
more difficult if the local Conservative politician is seen as tainted and not having justified their actions and also I gather that Conservative Party HQ has had party donors from the region expressing concern that she hasn't satisfactorily justified what she has done.»
Unlike Lord Ashcroft's marginal polls (which are actually a series of individual
constituency polls in
seats that are marginals, which we can aggregate together to get an extremely large sample across a group of marginal
seats) ComRes's poll is a
more traditional marginals poll — a single poll of a group of marginal
seats, meaning it gives us a measure of those
seats as a whole, but has far too few people to tell us anything about the individual
seats within that group.
«The Liberal Democrats are likely to lose out
more than the other main parties because their
seats are yellow islands in a sea of red or blue; changing the boundaries is
more likely to bring in hostile territories, their majorities tend to be smaller than Labour or Conservative MPs and their Lib Dems trade a lot on incumbency and
constituency service.
This is a
more difficult phenomenon to measure for these elections, particularly in the context of the complex series of possibilities thrown up by the D'hondt method in combination with
constituency first past the post
seats in Scotland, Wales and London.
Mr Mohammed, who was launching his Campaign in the
Constituency, said although the NPP had occupied the
seat for so many years, the performance of President John Dramani Mahama in the country would catalyse many
more people to opt for the NDC in the December polls.
While in many ways it may be satisfying for campaigners to achieve gigantic majorities in their home areas, once a party has achieved first place in a
constituency under FPTP those extra votes do nothing to help secure
more seats in the House of Commons.
In many cases, larger
constituency units have come about as a result of a loss of
seats — whether it be the loss of a European Parliament
seat by the Republic of Ireland or the loss of County Council
seats by some (of the
more rural) counties — added to the overall increase in
seat numbers for City and County Council elections.
The Erith and Thamesmead
seat has
more in common with an inner London
seat than the other Borough of Bexley
constituencies.
As for the
constituency of Redcar in 2015 they won 1 council
seat in the Longbeck ward though they might have won all three had they actually bothered to run
more than one candidate.
Here is the lead by
constituency on the local votes from the 10 most marginal Conservative held
seats in 2015 and Reading East / West (
seats with ward boundary changes, no local elections in 2015 or either Con or Lab not running in
more than one ward have been omitted), the actual majority is in brackets:
In Australia
seats like this would not be allowed... then again there they don't have wards or county boundaries that count
more, seemingly, that
constituency construction
Reading posts from Andrea above, only 12 applicants for a safe Labour
constituency which will
more or less guarantee the winner of the selection a
seat for life seems very few.
But this method is not foolproof: it sometimes gives a
constituency more seats than the whole number closest to its fair proportion.