Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria are apt examples: Scientists can agree that
more events of this magnitude can be expected in a warming climate.
Not exact matches
CBOE SKEW Index values, which are calculated from weighted strips
of out -
of - the - money S&P 500 options, rise to higher levels as investors become
more fearful
of a «black swan»
event — an unexpected
event of large
magnitude and consequence.
Collins wants to know whether the Dowler case was a story that she was
more heavily involved with than others, «simply because
of the
magnitude of the
events»?
De Blasio said he did not go to the crash scene because, while
more than 100 people were injured in the horrifying rush hour accident, no one died, so it didn't rise to the «
magnitude»
of an
event requiring his personal attention.
Mayor Bill de Blasio said he was conspicuously absent from the LIRR crash scene in Brooklyn on Wednesday because — while
more than 100 people were injured in the horrifying rush - hour derailment — no one died, so it didn't rise to the «
magnitude»
of an
event requiring his personal attention.
Fryer,
of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, is confident that
more evidence
of the massive tsunami will be found, confirming that
events of this
magnitude have rocked the island chain in the not - so - distant past.
More than 300 earthquakes above a
magnitude 3.0 occurred in the three years from 2010 - 2012, compared with an average rate
of 21
events per year observed from 1967 - 2000.
For an
event of a particular seismic
magnitude, the deeper the explosion, the
more energetic the blast.
Recent computational studies have shown that strong SEP
events may produce ionization and dose rate enhancements
of more than four orders
of magnitude both at altitude in the Martian atmosphere and at the surface (Norman et al. 2014; Gronoff et al. 2015).
If it is true, as some studies suggest for example, that El Nino
events become
more frequent and greater in
magnitude due to anthropogenic forcing (this is not yet a settled issue), then, given the established relationship between the El Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the extratropical Pacific / North American atmospheric circulation, we might expect increased baroclinicity and greater storminess over a substantial region
of the mid-latitude North Pacific ocean and neighboring western U.S..
Such an extremely warm winter in Earth's northern extremity is still a rare
event but climate change has «made the
event more likely by orders
of magnitude», the authors tell Carbon Brief.
Road test editor Eric Weiner has reluctantly taken the reins, and I've agreed to be his right - hand man, managing some
of the
more mundane logistics that keep an
event of this
magnitude running smoothly.
On the Russian heat wave, Marty is citing a single paper that claims it had nothing to do with climate change, but there are other papers that purport to demonstrate that
events of that
magnitude are now three times
more likely than before the industrial era.
I checked in with Sieh on Wednesday in the wake
of the latest powerful quake, a 7.7
magnitude event that spawned a potent tsunami and has killed, at last count,
more than 300 people.
So yes we can say an
event we experienced
of such and such a
magnitude (floods, heat waves etc.) are now
more likely, but we can't say any certain
event was worse, because nature is using a whole different set
of random numbers.
I think you are
more correct in thinking people did not forsee the
magnitude of the
events or anticipate the exact sequence
of problems in the credit market — but there were plenty
of signs
of trouble and plenty
of people who saw them.
More specifically, the numbers, signs, and
magnitudes of ENSO
events.
The Russian heat wave, Marty cites is a single paper that claims it had nothing to do with climate change, but there are other papers that purport to demonstrate that
events of that
magnitude are now three times
more likely than before the industrial era.
Responding to and in the manner
of KK Tung's UPDATE (and, you can quote me): globally speaking the slowing
of the rapidity
of the warming, were it absent an enhanced hiatus compared to prior hiatuses, must at the least be interpreted as nothing
more than a slowdown
of the positive trend
of uninterrupted global warming coming out
of the Little Ice Age that has been «juiced» by AGW as evidenced by rapid warming during the last three decades
of the 20th Century, irrespective
of the fact that, «the modern Grand maximum (which occurred during solar cycles 19 — 23, i.e., 1950 - 2009),» according to Ilya Usoskin, «was a rare or even unique
event, in both
magnitude and duration, in the past three millennia [that's, 3,000 years].»
This recent shift towards
more intense and frequent El Niños is related to the recent increase in dry areas around the world.5 However, past observations and reconstructions
of El Niño
events from non-instrumental records such as corals show that El Niño
events naturally fluctuate in
magnitude and frequency over time, and this has been demonstrated in long climate model simulations
of past and future climate as well.6
Also a brand new study
of storm surges since 1923 finds «that Katrina -
magnitude events have been twice as frequent in warm years compared with cold years» — so
more severe surges are on the way.
Magnitude of possible catastrophic event / magnitude of uncertainty (more uncertain is a smaller number) = magnitude of require
Magnitude of possible catastrophic
event /
magnitude of uncertainty (more uncertain is a smaller number) = magnitude of require
magnitude of uncertainty (
more uncertain is a smaller number) =
magnitude of require
magnitude of required action.
The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence
of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity
of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all
of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the
magnitude nor duration
of multi-century
events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000
of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding
of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer
of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum
of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was
more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline
of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all
of the observed warming
of the 20th century.
The increase
of these extreme anomalies, by
more than an order
of magnitude, implies that we can say with a high degree
of confidence that
events such as the extreme summer heat in the Moscow region in 2010 and Texas in 2011 were a consequence
of global warming.
Even though there may be subtle changes from year - to - year in the
magnitude of extreme
events (although I am not sure that one can demonstrate this statistically) I am sure that expenditures on the shorter term will be
more cost effective than planning for the changes associated with climate change.
If weather
events like hurricanes are a function
of heat gradients, not
of heat content, then it follows that raising Tmin
more than Tmax, via atmospheric CO2, will cause their formation rates and their
magnitude to fall
On the darker side, an
event of this
magnitude often brings with it implications in the sex trade which should receive
more attention than they do.