If the winter averages are above 33 degrees, generally speaking, allowing for minor changes in the climate, we have less glacier and Polar Ice activity and
more hurricane activity.
According to the most recent evidence, there does not seem to be any sort of trend toward
more hurricane activity and the signal for a possible increase in intensity is weak.
Not exact matches
ALBANY — One hundred New York state troopers will be deputized to carry out law enforcement
activities in Puerto Rico as Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Wednesday authorized sending
more resources to the
hurricane - ravaged island.
But
Hurricane Irma, which made landfall in the Keys and Southwest Florida little
more than two weeks ago, threw a monkey - wrench into the contest, temporarily putting campaign
activities on hold after the massive storm knocked out power, internet, cable and mail delivery to much of the district.
One hundred New York state troopers will be deputized to carry out law enforcement
activities in Puerto Rico as Gov. Andrew Cuomo authorized sending
more resources to the
hurricane - ravaged island.
More controversial is the extent to which global warming contributes to
hurricane activity.
The two papers released yesterday follow research published last month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that found that human
activity could make another
Hurricane Harvey far
more likely.
More than 13 years in the making, the center is designed to be the U.S. government's nerve center for a range of
activities, including predicting
hurricane tracks and forecasting ocean currents.
This year, Gray expects
more activity, with 15 named storms, including 8
hurricanes.
That doesn't mean
more hurricanes everywhere, though: While El Niño tends to boost
activity in the Pacific Ocean, it clamps down on storm formation in the tropical Atlantic.
I'm a bit concerned that this year's
hurricane activity may be
more severe to warmer weather so my pets» safety has been heavy on my mind.
More specifically, an anomalously large (small) AWP reduces (enhances) the vertical wind shear in the
hurricane main development region and increases (decreases) the moist static instability of the troposphere, both of which favor (disfavor) Atlantic tropical cyclone
activity.
The clear seasonality in TCs («
hurricane season») with highest
activities during the summer is one of the strongest pieces of empirical evidence that higher temperatures give
more favourable conditions for tropical cyclones (After all, TCs only form in the warm tropics...).
With respect to the headline «Hurricanes Growing
More Fierce Over Past 30 Years», that is misleading as 30 years ago there was SST cooling and the
hurricane activity had decreased.
An important point in the article, I felt, was: «the very real and dangerous increases in recent Atlantic
hurricane activity will no doubt continue to provide a heightened sense of purpose to research addressing how
hurricane behavior might change in our changing climate...» so «give us
more money!!!».
The authors also note that additional research will be required to fully understand how the increased wind shear affects
hurricane activity more specifically.
To conclude — I will add that the investigators of the re-analysis project had the following conclusion for Cycles of
hurricane activity: These records reflect the existence of cycles of
hurricane activity, rather than trends toward
more frequent or stronger
hurricanes.
But the new work did seem a lot
more scientifically rigorous than most previous arguments against a link between global warming and
hurricanes; which simply state we don't know enough about past
hurricane activity to determine whether modern
hurricane activity is unprecedented.
The news here is that natural variability within certain
hurricane basins appears to be much
more influential on
hurricane activity than global warming.
But it does say; «Natural climate variations, which tend to involve localized changes in sea surface temperature, may have a larger effect on
hurricane activity than the
more uniform patterns of global warming...»
The study looked at historical
hurricane activity across the entire tropical Atlantic basin to see if the current peak in storm numbers is... Read
more
The earlier period of powerful
hurricane activity matched previous studies that found evidence of high
hurricane activity during the same period in
more southerly areas of the western North Atlantic Ocean basin — from the Caribbean to the Gulf Coast.
Landsea, a
hurricane expert, had said that recent
hurricane activity had not been made
more severe by «global warming.»
«These three studies provide even
more evidence (as if any
more is even required) that shows that claims that
hurricane activity is increasing are completely at odds with a plethora of findings reporting on observations collected from throughout the world.»
If our polluting
activities have nothing to do with the
hurricanes than why France's President Francois Hollande during its recent visit in the Philippines called for
more actions in order to stop climate change because he said that Typhoon Hagupit and Typhoon Hayan which devastated the region become that big and dangerous due to our polluting
activities which brings the planet on the brink of disaster.
(CNN) This year's Atlantic
hurricane season could generate
more activity than in recent years and possibly bring one to four major
hurricanes, the federal government said.
ABC also reported increased
hurricane activity as if it were an established scientific fact that there were now
more hurricanes and that they were caused by global warming.
Since this index represents a continuous spectrum of both system duration and intensity, it does not suffer as much from the discontinuities inherent in
more widely used measures of
activity such as the number of tropical storms,
hurricanes or major
hurricanes.
Hence, it appears that
hurricane activity was
more frequent in the first half of the last millennium when tropical Atlantic SSTs were warmer and eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs were cooler than in subsequent centuries.
IER (7/15/13) reports: «The Institute for Energy Research compared the impacts of
hurricane activity and the Obama Administration's oil policies on production in the offshore Gulf of Mexico to see which has the larger and
more lasting -LSB-...]
I wonder how hard it was for him to acknowledge that other
more significant processes than global warming could be causing increased
hurricane activity.
There was also a claim, after the 2005
hurricane season in the North Atlantic, that
hurricane activity was caused by
more CO2 in the atmopshere.
The kind of things I'm referring to are
more frequent and intense heatwaves, flooding and droughts, sea level rise and its associated impacts, glacier melt, damage to sensitive ecosystems, increased tropical cyclone
activity, increased
hurricane strength, ocean acidification.
Back in 2007, the IPCC said it was «
more likely than not» (meaning, a greater - than -50-percent probability) that human
activities — through global warming — were contributing to an observed intensification of
hurricanes in at least some regions of the globe.
I'm interested in how a long duration model of
hurricane activity could show increases and decreases in
hurricane strength, frequency and size, which could give a
more clear image of how much GW is calling the shots, so to speak.
I get to understand why Global Warming is not seriously discussed amongst the populace in general, by watching many TV Meteorologists, who utterly confuse the matter, who also seem to be limited by the range of their Doppler radars, seldom explain anything
more than the latest extreme
Hurricane activity as the result of a «cycle».
Greenland cooled, Brazilian rainfall swelled,
hurricane activity dropped, and the Sahel dried to the most catastrophic drought in
more than a century.
Further investigation with
more advanced models is needed for
more confident projections of future
hurricane activity in a warming climate.
Our
more recent late 21st century projections of
hurricane activity continue to support the notion of increased intensity (~ 4 %) and near - storm rainfall rates (~ 10 to 15 %) for the Atlantic basin (Knutson et al. 2013) as well as for most other tropical cyclone basins (Knutson et al. 2015).
Through research, GFDL scientists have concluded that it is premature to attribute past changes in
hurricane activity to greenhouse warming, although simulated
hurricanes tend to be
more intense in a warmer climate.
To gain
more insight on this problem, we have attempted to analyze much longer (> 100 yr) records of Atlantic
hurricane activity.
The assumption that the records of major
hurricane activity are complete before the advent of aircraft reconnaissance leads directly to the erroneous conclusion that major
hurricanes became much
more numerous starting in 1943.
We have been told that climate change would cause
more powerful
hurricanes and yet we have had a decade of lower
hurricane activity and no change in tornado
activity.
In making their seasonal outlook, which was released on May 23, NOAA cited a broad area of above - average sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Basin, a continuation of a natural cycle of above - average
hurricane activity, and a lack of an El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean as reasons why there may be
more storms this year.
In fact,
hurricane activity is
more related to the difference in temperatures between the cold and warmer waters, a difference AGW theory says should decrease rather than increase.
Based on recent research, Willoughby said, it is likely that «the strongest
hurricanes will get stronger, because the oceanic heat source is stronger, but because of increased shear of the surrounding winds, the numbers will go down, and the locus of
activity in the Atlantic is
more likely to move to the open Atlantic from the Gulf [of Mexico].»
What's
more, construction
activity for the rebuilding of the
hurricane - hit Gulf Coast promises to boost GDP growth.