According to the Northeast chapter of the Third US National Climate Assessment, «In... much of West Virginia...
more intense precipitation events will mean greater flood risk, particularly in valleys, where people, infrastructure, and agriculture tend to be concentrated.»
Basic theory, climate model simulations and empirical evidence all confirm that warmer climates, owing to increased water vapour, lead to
more intense precipitation events even when the total annual precipitation is reduced slightly, and with prospects for even stronger events when the overall precipitation amounts increase.
Another new study, produced by the European Academies» Science Advisory Council Global, predicts
more intense precipitation and storm surges are inevitable in the future.
In mountainous regions, including much of West Virginia and large parts of Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire,
more intense precipitation events (Ch.
It is a critical and highly integrated natural and economic system threatened by changing land - use patterns and a changing climate — including sea level rise, higher temperatures, and
more intense precipitation events.
However, the report does say it is very likely that there will be
more intense precipitation events over many areas, and that peak winds and rainfall rates from hurricanes are also likely to be higher.
Such events are consistent with observations and projections of wetter springs and
more intense precipitation events (see Figure 18.6).
In weather systems, convergence of increased water vapor leads to
more intense precipitation and the risk of heavy rain and snow events, but may also lead to reductions in duration and / or frequency of rain events, given that total amounts do not change much.
Precipitation occurs about once every seven days in the western part of the region and once every three days in the southeastern part.77 The 10 rainiest days can contribute as much as 40 % of total precipitation in a given year.77 Generally, annual precipitation increased during the past century (by up to 20 % in some locations), with much of the increase driven by intensification of the heaviest rainfalls.77, 78,79 This tendency towards
more intense precipitation events is projected to continue in the future.80
The warm moist air is readily advected onto land and caught up in weather systems as part of the hydrological cycle, where it contributes to
more intense precipitation events that are widely observed to be occurring (IPCC 2007; Trenberth 2011a; Groisman and Knight 2008; Min et al. 2011; Pall et al. 2011).
Why does
more intense precipitation ensue?
If it is extreme wet, it is 100 % proof of AGW as warmer air can hold more water, hence
more intense precipitation.
However, I've never seen a single media article in any U.S. press outlet that covered these issues — the large - scale evidence for global warming (melting glaciers, warming poles, shrinking sea ice, ocean temperatures) to the local scale (more intense hurricanes,
more intense precipitation, more frequent droughts and heat waves) while also discussing the real causes (fossil fuels and deforestation) and the real solutions (replacement of fossil fuels with renewables, limiting deforestation, and halting the use of fossil fuels, especially coal and oil.)
These shifts may include rising sea levels, stronger tropical cyclones, the loss of soil moisture under higher temperatures,
more intense precipitation and flooding, more frequent droughts, the melting of glaciers and the changing seasonality of snowmelt.
Not exact matches
According to the Climate Science Special Report released on Nov. 2, heavy
precipitation events are becoming
more frequent and
intense in most regions of the world.
The Northeast and the Pacific Northwest may see only a slight increase in annual
precipitation, maybe one or two percent, but storms are likely to become
more intense.
(When tropical
precipitation is
more intense, the raindrops include
more of the lighter form of hydrogen.)
The combination of higher evaporation and lower
precipitation depletes soil moisture and reduces runoff, making droughts
more intense and
more frequent.
They were in less agreement about how
intense rain or snow will be when it does fall, although there is general consensus among models that the most extreme
precipitation will become
more frequent.
Future
precipitation trends in both areas aren't as clear, though there are indications that rain will come in
more intense, episodic bursts, leaving
more time between them for trees to experience drought stress.
However, combined measuring stations around the world suggest there has been a global trend towards
more frequent and
intense hot extremes since the 1950s, as well as
more heavy
precipitation events.
A gentle global increase in
precipitation with warming can be made up by localized systems becoming
more intense while vast other areas get drier and
more sluggish.
There is also
more intense rainfall in the warm tropics than the cooler extra-tropics, and summer
precipitation is often
more intense than in winter due to different physical conditions.
Scientists expect
more intense storms to occur in the Midwest throughout the year, and
more precipitation to fall in winter and spring.4 If our carbon emissions continue to rise at current rates, spring rainfall in Jefferson City is projected to increase 25 percent or
more by the end of this century.9, 10
Climate models project not only
more intense rainstorms but also longer periods with little
precipitation in between.12
Scientists agree that the effects of climate change will include
more sporadic and irregular
precipitation, with longer periods of drought separated by
more intense rainfall; and increasing average temperatures.
Some of the effects of climate change are likely to include
more variable weather, heat waves, heavy
precipitation events, flooding, droughts,
more intense storms such as hurricanes, sea level rise, and air pollution.
Our warming world is, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, increasing heat waves and
intense precipitation in some places, and is likely to bring
more extreme weather in the future.
On extreme
precipitation events over mid-latitude landmass and wet tropical regions becoming
more intense and frequent, the CLAs clarified that the assessment was based on
more than the RCPs, and that the conclusion was generally true for all these regions.
Change in
precipitation (Some areas of the Earth are becoming seeing
more intense flooding while others are seeing severe droughts) 5.
Intense precipitation events are expected to continue to become
more frequent.
A December 2017 study found that global warming made the
precipitation seen over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26 — 28 about 15 percent (8 to 19 percent)
more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5 — 5) times
more likely.
A December 2017 study found that global warming made the
precipitation seen over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26 — 28 about 15 % (8 % — 19 %)
more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5 — 5) times
more likely.
These changes combined with higher sea levels and associated storm surges,
more intense droughts, and increased
precipitation variability are projected to lead to increased stresses to water, agriculture, economic activities and urban and rural settlements (high confidence).
In addition to direct crop damage from increasingly
intense precipitation events, wet springs can delay planting for grain and vegetables in New York, for example, and subsequently delay harvest dates and reduce yields.67 This is an issue for agriculture nationally, 65 but is particularly acute for the Northeast, where heavy rainfall events have increased
more than in any other region of the country (Ch.
The widespread trend of increasing heavy downpours is expected to continue, with
precipitation becoming less frequent but
more intense.13, 14,15,16 The patterns of the projected changes of
precipitation do not contain the spatial details that characterize observed
precipitation, especially in mountainous terrain, because the projections are averages from multiple models and because the effective resolution of global climate models is roughly 100 - 200 miles.
As the climate has warmed, some types of extreme weather have become
more frequent and severe in recent decades, with increases in extreme heat,
intense precipitation, and drought.
Min, S. K., X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and G. C. Hegerl, 2011: Human contribution to
more -
intense precipitation extremes.
More extreme
precipitation events (with 3 - hour duration) so
intense than in the past they would be exceeded on average only once every 10 years are projected to occur on average three times as often in future in Metro Vancouver and about three and a half times as often in future in CRD.
Cold days (daily maximum temperature below the 10th percentile) occur together with
intense precipitation more frequently during spring and summer.
Min, X. Zhang, F.W. Zwiers, and G.C. Hegerl, «Human contribution to
more -
intense precipitation extremes,» Nature, vol.
Extra heat of this kind would also tend to enhance
precipitation extremes —
more rain when it does rain and far
more intense drought in areas affected by heat and atmospheric ridging.
I do see mounting evidence that increasing SSTs can cause
more intense hurricanes (
more wind, greater
precipitation).
On January 3 and 4, the first of two back - to - back atmospheric river storms (wide paths of moisture in the atmosphere composed of condensed water vapor), brought heavy rain and mountain snow to central California, ahead of an even
more intense round of heavy
precipitation brought by a powerful, long - duration atmospheric river storm pulling warm and moist air to California from the subtropical and equatorial region southeast of Hawaii.
In particular, over NH land, an increase in the likelihood of very wet winters is projected over much of central and northern Europe due to the increase in
intense precipitation during storm events, suggesting an increased chance of flooding over Europe and other mid-latitude regions due to
more intense rainfall and snowfall events producing
more runoff.
This has already been observed and is projected to continue because in a warmer world,
precipitation tends to be concentrated into
more intense events, with longer periods of little
precipitation in between.
One consequence of higher water vapor concentrations is
more frequent,
intense precipitation.
Research data show that climate change caused by human behavior is fueling
more frequent and
intense weather, such as extreme
precipitation and heat waves — so it's only natural to wonder if this applies to tornadoes, too.
We know that
precipitation intensity has been increasing (the amount of rain that falls in the most
intense events) across the northern hemisphere — === Really,
more precip?
This translates into heavier
precipitation in the form of
more intense rain or snow, simply because
more moisture is available to storms.