El Niño will create a mixed bag in terms of precipitation too, with increased odds that Southern California will see
more precipitation this year — though it's too early to know if that will come in the form of snow — while the Pacific Northwest is likely to be drier and could see its drought deepen.
Not exact matches
Northern California, where I live, definitely tends to get
more precipitation this time of
year than it does the rest of the
year.
Apparently, winter
precipitation was
more important than summer temperature for annual glacier balance when only considering subsets of
years with high NAO index and negative AMO index.
A decrease in
precipitation frequency translates into even
more year - to -
year variability in fresh water resources for the Southwest.
For
more than 20
years, scientists have tossed around the idea that bacteria play a role in
precipitation.
Fueled by tropical moisture drawn north and pinned over the area by a stalled weather pattern, the amount of
precipitation between Sept. 9 and 15 in some areas was
more than what typically falls in an entire
year.
In that month alone, Boulder received
more than half the
precipitation it gets in an entire
year.
With rising global temperatures, the 2014 National Climate Assessment predicts that many communities will see
more frequent extreme
precipitation events like the one that hit Baton Rouge, La., last
year.
The drought in California has been building for
more than four
years, as winter
precipitation deficits slowed streams to a trickle and sent reservoir levels dipping, while unusually warm temperatures increased water demand.
A Climate Central analysis of 65
years of winter
precipitation data from
more than 2,000 weather stations in 42 states, found a decrease in the percent of
precipitation falling as snow in winter months for every region of the country.
And even in wet
years, warmer temperatures could mean that
more precipitation falls as rain, not snow, setting up the possibility that many
more years will see an April 1 with very little snow.
And California had a near average wet season, which sounds good except for the fact that the state needed a lot
more precipitation than it got to kick its four -
year drought to the curb.
In locations that are accustomed to getting snow during the winter, the total amount of snow each
year is already decreasing as the planet warms from increasing greenhouse gases; the percentage of
precipitation falling as snow is on the decline, with
more of it falling as rain.
Although not the driest month of the
year, September is usually much
more arid, with average total
precipitation of 1.61 inches.
However, higher temperatures do cause an increased chance of heavy
precipitation events, and it is likely that the flooding in some of this
year's U.S. flooding disasters were significantly enhanced by the presence of
more water vapor in the air due to global warming.
Scientists expect
more intense storms to occur in the Midwest throughout the
year, and
more precipitation to fall in winter and spring.4 If our carbon emissions continue to rise at current rates, spring rainfall in Jefferson City is projected to increase 25 percent or
more by the end of this century.9, 10
For
more on recent
precipitation Texas, Kansas, Colorado, and Oklahoma; crop yields; cattle issues; and meat prices, check out Bloomberg's coverage of this story: Worst Texas Drought in 44
Years Damaging Wheat Crop, Reducing Cattle Herds.
Snowfall varies across the region, comprising less than 10 % of total
precipitation in the south, to
more than half in the north, with as much as two inches of water available in the snowpack at the beginning of spring melt in the northern reaches of the river basins.81 When this amount of snowmelt is combined with heavy rainfall, the resulting flooding can be widespread and catastrophic (see «Cedar Rapids: A Tale of Vulnerability and Response»).82 Historical observations indicate declines in the frequency of high magnitude snowfall
years over much of the Midwest, 83 but an increase in lake effect snowfall.61 These divergent trends and their inverse relationships with air temperatures make overall projections of regional impacts of the associated snowmelt extremely difficult.
For the entire Northern Hemisphere, there is evidence of an increase in both storm frequency and intensity during the cold season since 1950,1 with storm tracks having shifted slightly towards the poles.2, 3 Extremely heavy snowstorms increased in number during the last century in northern and eastern parts of the United States, but have been less frequent since 2000.11,15 Total seasonal snowfall has generally decreased in southern and some western areas, 16 increased in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes region, 16,17 and not changed in other areas, such as the Sierra Nevada, although snow is melting earlier in the
year and
more precipitation is falling as rain versus snow.18 Very snowy winters have generally been decreasing in frequency in most regions over the last 10 to 20
years, although the Northeast has been seeing a normal number of such winters.19 Heavier - than - normal snowfalls recently observed in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. in some
years, with little snow in other
years, are consistent with indications of increased blocking (a large scale pressure pattern with little or no movement) of the wintertime circulation of the Northern Hemisphere.5 However, conclusions about trends in blocking have been found to depend on the method of analysis, 6 so the assessment and attribution of trends in blocking remains an active research area.
Above - average
precipitation in California and other parts of the West doesn't necessarily mean there will be fewer wildfires this season — the Golden State has already seen
more than twice as many acres burned as it did last
year.
Despite the complexity of global food supply, here we show that simple measures of growing season temperatures and
precipitation — spatial averages based on the locations of each crop — explain ~ 30 % or
more of
year - to -
year variations in global average yields for the world's six most widely grown crops.
Precipitation occurs about once every seven days in the western part of the region and once every three days in the southeastern part.77 The 10 rainiest days can contribute as much as 40 % of total precipitation in a given year.77 Generally, annual precipitation increased during the past century (by up to 20 % in some locations), with much of the increase driven by intensification of the heaviest rainfalls.77, 78,79 This tendency towards more intense precipitation events is projected to continue in
Precipitation occurs about once every seven days in the western part of the region and once every three days in the southeastern part.77 The 10 rainiest days can contribute as much as 40 % of total
precipitation in a given year.77 Generally, annual precipitation increased during the past century (by up to 20 % in some locations), with much of the increase driven by intensification of the heaviest rainfalls.77, 78,79 This tendency towards more intense precipitation events is projected to continue in
precipitation in a given
year.77 Generally, annual
precipitation increased during the past century (by up to 20 % in some locations), with much of the increase driven by intensification of the heaviest rainfalls.77, 78,79 This tendency towards more intense precipitation events is projected to continue in
precipitation increased during the past century (by up to 20 % in some locations), with much of the increase driven by intensification of the heaviest rainfalls.77, 78,79 This tendency towards
more intense
precipitation events is projected to continue in
precipitation events is projected to continue in the future.80
«Once - in - five -
year» heavy
precipitation events — two - day
precipitation totals that are exceeded, on average, only once in a 5 -
year period — are becoming
more common.
The deuterium excess, a proxy of Greenland
precipitation moisture source, switches mode within 1 - 3
years over these transitions and initiates a
more gradual change (50
years) of the Greenland air temperature as recorded by water stable isotopes.
Improved observational data suggest during
more frequent La Nina
years a greater proportion of
precipitation falls on the land globally and when routed through
more slowly discharging aquifers, sea level rise decelerates.
Harvey made landfall in Texas on August 25, dumping
more than 50 inches of rain in less than a week — roughly the amount of
precipitation Houston gets in an entire
year.
years, after reading a book about the role of the sun in climate, including the usuals like temperature,
precipitation, hurricanes,... But also non-usuals like earthquackes (clustering in the upgoing flank of the solar cycle, as is the case now) and even the number of wars (probably spurious, but continuous bad weather, as in our «summer» now, influences one's mood, thus
more fights, etc.).
If
more heat causes
more precip, then, since the climate has definitely warmed since the 1950's — a 60 plus
year period, we should definitely see
more precipitation, shouldn't we?
«Warming in California has made it
more probable that when a low
precipitation year occurs, it occurs in warm conditions and is
more likely to produce severe drought,» said lead study author Noah Diffenbaugh, an associate professor in the School of Earth Sciences at Stanford.
The first kind of
precipitation whiplash is from
year to
year, meaning that we'll see
more extraordinarily dry
years followed by incredibly wet
years — in the way California's five -
year drought ended in 2017 in one of the wettest winters on record.
And current climate change trends could easily increase the chance of bad flooding — there's
more water vapor in the atmosphere now (ready to condense into storm clouds and
precipitation), for example, than there was 70
years ago.
The researchers looked at historical temperature and
precipitation records to find out whether drought conditions were
more likely to hit during warm or cold
years in the past.
Precipitation on the continent became
more common, from around 14,700
years ago until 3,000
years before the Common Era.
Many climatic parameters (ground and ocean surface temperatures, pressure, atmospheric
precipitation, etc.) have temporal variations with characteristic periods from several to several tens of
years or
more.
In addition, climate change is very likely to lead to
more frequent extreme heat events and daily
precipitation extremes over most areas of North America,
more frequent low snow
years, and shifts towards earlier snowmelt runoff over much of the western US and Canada (high confidence).
While the
years with warm and wet weather extremes have also become
more common in the state, increased temperatures accompanying the
precipitation tend to lead to quicker evaporation, Diffenbaugh said.
More extreme
precipitation events (with 3 - hour duration) so intense than in the past they would be exceeded on average only once every 10
years are projected to occur on average three times as often in future in Metro Vancouver and about three and a half times as often in future in CRD.
In the Northeast US extreme
precipitation has increased by
more than 70 % in the last 50
years and is projected to continue to increase.
[5] The SWE / P ratio shows what fraction of current water
year precipitation remains in the snow pack for any given day of the water
year: the closer SWE (snow water equivalent) is to P (overall
precipitation), the
more water resources remain.
Sea levels are rising (ask the Mayor of Miami who has spent tax monies to raise road levels), we've had 15 of the hottest
years eve measured,
more precipitation is coming down in heavy doses (think Houston), we're seeing
more floods and drought than ever before (consistent with predictions), the oceans are measuring warmer, lake ice in North America is thawing sooner (where it happens in northern states and Canada), most glaciers are shrinking, early spring snowpacks out west have declined since the 1950's, growing seasons are longer throughout the plains, bird wintering ranges have moved north, leaf and bloom dates recorded by Thoreau in Walden have shifted in that area, insect populations that used to have one egg - larva - adult cycle in the summer now have two, the list goes on and on.
The basin could experience
more precipitation with climate change, or bigger swings between wet and dry
years or possibly even longer,
more severe «megadroughts.»
Combined with diminished
precipitation, high temperatures in California are causing soils and vegetation to lose moisture earlier in the spring and stay dry later in the fall, meaning the landscape is flammable for
more of the
year.
Our analyses show that California has historically been
more likely to experience drought if
precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and that such confluences have increased in recent decades, leading to increases in the fraction of low -
precipitation years that yield drought.
The probability that a negative
precipitation anomaly co-occurs with a positive temperature anomaly has increased recently, with warm — dry
years occurring
more than twice as often in the past two decades (91 %) as in the preceding century (42 %)(Fig. 1B).
Very heavy
precipitation events, defined as the heaviest one percent of storms, now drop 67 percent
more precipitation in the Northeast, 31 percent
more in the Midwest and 15 percent
more in the Great Plains than they did 50
years ago.
More generally, regional variations of temperature and
precipitation modify the fluxes from
year to
year, for instance during El Niño events.
A hot - humid climate is defined as a region that receives
more than 20 inches (50 cm) of annual
precipitation with approximately 6,300 cooling degree days (50 degrees F basis)[3,500 cooling degree days (10 degrees C basis)-RSB- or greater and where the monthly average outdoor temperature remains above 45 degrees F (7 degrees C) throughout the
year.
Our approach in Swain et al. (2014) doesn't allow us to determine whether the amplitude of the flow pattern itself (i.e. its «ridgey - ness») is increasing, nor whether
years with extremely low
precipitation have become
more common.
Those who like to check under the hood and kick the tires will find a tiny increase in
precipitation over the 240 -
year record, with an interesting smoothing of
precipitation through the
year - that is, there's been a little
more rain in the drier December through May half and a little less in the soggier June through November half of the
year.
Coincident with the increasing amplitude and variability of the «dipole» pattern (Wang et al. 2014), big swings in California
precipitation (i.e. the occurrence of both very wet
years and very dry
years) are expected to become
more common over the course of the 21st century (Wang et al. 2014, Funk et al. 2014).