Sentences with phrase «most climate model projections»

Not exact matches

New climate model projections of the world's coral reefs reveal which reefs will be hit first by annual coral bleaching, an event that poses the gravest threat to one of the Earth's most important ecosystems.

Richard Betts, head of climate impacts at the Hadley Centre of the U.K.'s Met office presented to reporters in Copenhagen today a new analysis of modeling data showing how conserving tropical forests is going to be crucial if the world is to make a target of 2 ˚C, even under the most conservative projections of how much carbon the forests contain.

Of the many inane arguments that are made against taking action on climate change, perhaps the most fatuous is that the projections climate models offer about the future are too uncertain to justify taking steps that might inconvenience us in the present.

In addition, exclusion of human - related impacts such as irrigation, land use, and water diversion from most current climate models makes reliable projection of drought even less certain (Sheffield and Wood 2008).

We show historical trends in snowmelt and runoff timing; examine climate factors that most influence these patterns; and present model projections for stream runoff in the future.

We examine historical trends in total annual streamflow; discuss what climate factors most influence these patterns; and present model projections for the future.

The extra data spanning many thousands of years that this study uncovers will go a long way to matching model projections with past observations, helping scientists identify the most accurate models for making predictions of future climate change.

Leung emphasized the estimate's conservativeness, noting that the climate projections of warming devised by the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Center for Atmospheric Research are on the low end compared to most other models.

Given the uncertainty in climate projections, there can be surprises that may cause more dramatic disruptions than anticipated from the most probable model projections.

1) it is the first time a global model that, while more expensive than conventional GCMs, is affordable for climate projection has been shown to contain the essential mechanism known to deliver most of the summertime mid-continent US rainfall, and

Raw climate model results for a business - as - usual scenario indicate that we can expect global temperatures to increase anywhere in the range of 5.8 and 10.6 degrees Fahrenheit (3.2 to 5.9 degrees Celsius) over preindustrial levels by the end of the century — a difference of about a factor of two between the most - and least - severe projections.

Dr. Judith Curry notes «The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2 % confidence level» This means the hypothesis upon which these models have been built is wrong and should be abandoned.

Of the many inane arguments that are made against taking action on climate change, perhaps the most fatuous is that the projections climate models offer about the future are too uncertain to justify taking steps that might inconvenience us in the present.

To reduce uncertainties in climate - change projections, it is essential to prioritize the improvement of the most important uncertain physical processes in climate models.

I believe the most of the hysteria about climate change will eventually subside when reality refuses to conform to model projections.

In this way the climate scientists can ensure that the projections are understood with their associated uncertainties, and the impacts / adaptation researchers can ensure that the climate scientists are aware of the parts of the climate system they are most sensitive to, providing a focus for climate model development efforts.

F. «Global temperature» projections of unverified «climate models,» which involve hypothetical forecasts of, not evidence of, global warming, have increasingly diverged from the most reliable temperature records computed from the data collected by U.S. satellites.

Most of these entailed hindcasting, but Hansen's 1988 model projections have exhibited some skill in a forecasting mode, despite his use of inputs now known to overestimate the most likely value of climate sensitivMost of these entailed hindcasting, but Hansen's 1988 model projections have exhibited some skill in a forecasting mode, despite his use of inputs now known to overestimate the most likely value of climate sensitivmost likely value of climate sensitivity.

The final draft figure 1.4's blue envelop for the 2001 TAR's projections range is a stretch to logic since it's already + - 0,2 °C wide at the date of its publication in 2001 (instead of beeing the real temperature) meaning climate models are not even capable of hindcasting event most recent years.

Mr. Romm does not use any of the emissions scenarios that are the starting point for IPCC climate projections, but instead has developed a forecast for carbon emissions (which are «rising faster than the most pessimistic economic model considered by the IPCC»).

The most critical shortcomings of the assessment are the attempt to extrapolate global - scale projections down to regional and sub-regional scales and to use two models which provide divergent projections for key climate elements.»

However, there remains uncertainty in the rate of sea ice loss, with the models that most accurately project historical sea ice trends currently suggesting nearly ice - free conditions sometime between 2021 and 2043 (median 2035).12 Uncertainty across all models stems from a combination of large differences in projections among different climate models, natural climate variability, and uncertainty about future rates of fossil fuel emissions.

And finally, and perhaps most importantly, the future projection of temperature rise made by climate models (upon which the sea level rise projections are based) have been shown by a growing body of scientific research to be overestimated by about 40 percent.

But that's not uncommon when overlaying so much data, and frankly the TAR / SAR / FAR models and projections, while interesting as historical documents, are far from state of the art in resolution, in incorporated components of the climate, and perhaps most importantly in the more recent forcing histories.

The climate model produces one of the most extreme warming projections of all the 30 models evaluated by the IPCC.

``... The [Canadian] climate model produces one of the most extreme warming projections of all the 30 models evaluated by the IPCC...»

That article states that a review of the forecasts by a number of global climate model leads to a projection that «summer ice will most likely disappear around 2037.

Since most global warming concern (including that behind regulatory action) stems from the projections of climate models as to how the earth's temperature will evolve as we emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere (as a result of burning fossil fuels to produce energy), it is important to keep a tab on how the model projections are faring when compared with reality.

New climate model projections of the world's coral reefs reveal which reefs will be hit first by annual coral bleaching, an event that poses the gravest threat to one of the Earth's most important ecosystems.

Specifically with regards to climate research, for the past decade most of the resources have been expended on providing projections of future climate change using complex Earth system models, assessing and interpreting the output of climate models, and application of the output of climate models by the climate impacts community.

Africa's climate is warmer than it was 100 years ago and model - based projections of future greenhouse gas induced climate change for the continent project that this warming will continue, and in most scenarios, accelerate (Hulme et al. 2001; Christensen et al. 2007).

The most alarming projections for global warming this century also seem to be the most reliable, according to a December study in Nature that compared climate models against what's already happening in the atmosphere (see «Global Warming's Worst - Case Projections Look Increasingly Likeprojections for global warming this century also seem to be the most reliable, according to a December study in Nature that compared climate models against what's already happening in the atmosphere (see «Global Warming's Worst - Case Projections Look Increasingly LikeProjections Look Increasingly Likely»).