Judith, as you obviously know NS and fluid dynamics well and in any case better than
most modellers, I would like to have your take on what seems to me really the basic problem of the models.
Because they had the models deposited with them (a condition of ESRC funding) the group were able to produce pure model forecasts (in practice
most modellers override their models on occasions when they don't believe the answers — and on average this does improve forecasts...).
Not exact matches
Till now, climate
modellers» forecasts of future warming have resembled the famous bell curve, with the
most likely result of doubling CO2 being a temperature increase of about 3 °C, and with declining probabilities on either side for a narrow range of higher and lower temperature rises (see Graph).
The
most detailed record of the Earth's climate over the past 250 000 years is making modern climate
modellers think again about the implications of a greenhouse world
It's interesting to note that
most of these elements include physics that
modellers are least confident about — hydrology, ice sheets and vegetation dynamics.
Frieze March 2008 Makers and
Modellers Gladstone Gallery, New York, USA By Katie Sonnenborn While
most of Chelsea opted for the de rigueur September solo show, the Gladstone Gallery played the maverick and returned from summer with «Makers and
Modellers», a teeming group exhibition of 29 artists working in clay.
As for Dyson on modelling:
most complex simulation
modellers in all fields slip from time to time into thinking that their models picture reality.
This validation is what
most climate
modellers spend almost all their time doing.
I get notified daily of
most of the new papers relating to climate matters (as a retired
modeller — I still retain an interest), I have seen several recently regarding deep ocean temperature measurement and equipment that is used at multi depths.
What's priceless is the bastard nuclearists who are behind this AGW hoax (in France, all climate
modellers and
most of French authors at the IPCC are in laboratories affiliated with our state agency Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique) are aimed at now by greenies, but with that same hoax.
The point is that these are government decision - makers, so obviously they are first and foremost going to select the models and
modellers they believe will
most benefit the cause of government.
Prof Wadhams said: «His [model] is the
most extreme but he is also the best
modeller around... It is really showing the fall - off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly.
The fact that poor Asian countries with
most of the world's population have enjoyed faster economic growth rates than the rich countries over the past 30 years is probably the
most important socio - economic fact of our time, but it wasn't foreseen by the
modellers and, incredibly, many in the IPCC milieu still deny that it's happened: three IPCC chapters (Chapters 1 and 9 of the WG II report and Chapter 1 of WG III report) go out of their way to assert that global inequality has been increasing in recent decades.
It's interesting to note that
most of these elements include physics that
modellers are least confident about — hydrology, ice sheets and vegetation dynamics.
This claim has been
most recently been made in the much publicised featured article in the Jan 2011 issue of Physics Today, by Peter Humbug; climate
modeller supreme.