Most public bettors will look at this line and immediately take West Brom based on their appealing underdog odds, but desperation and pride come into play.
Everton / West Brom is a great example this week where
most public bettors see a line of Everton +160 and get sucked in.
NC State vs. Louisville:
Most public bettors thought the opener of Louisville -1 was too low, and they're now up to -3.5 / -4 around the market.
Most public bettors still tend to back favorites, and when mixed with the unpredictability of the bowl season, unpopular underdogs tend to cover more often than not.
Not exact matches
This simple strategy encourages
bettors to identify the
most popular teams and bet against them; thereby capitalizing on lines that have been shaded to exploit
public perception.
Since Georgia Tech is receiving overwhelming
public support and are ranked 20th in the
most recent AP poll, Duke could be offering value to
bettors this weekend.
Perhaps the
most interesting trend is that 55 % of
public bettors are taking the over, yet 92 % of total dollars wagered are on the under.
This is the
most heavily bet game of the week, but
public money hasn't affected the spread like many
bettors would expect.
According to our Sharp Action Report (available to Sportsbook Insider Advantage subscribers), the
public may be coming in hard on the Eagles, but sharp
bettors have consistently bought back the value with the Cowboys, making it
most popular bet among professionals so far this week.
In other words, college basketball
bettors can't blindly bet against the
public — they need to target the
most heavily bet games of the day.
The Warriors are the
most public team in the league, so it's not surprising to see
bettors taking them to cover.
Most oddsmakers know which games will take one - sided
public betting, so they will shade their opening lines to account for dull
bettors racing to the window like drunkards (or myself) racing to the bar at last call.
Oddsmakers shade their opening lines to capitalize on
public perception and then allow their
most well - respected
bettors to shape the line throughout the day.
Since a majority of
public bets will take the favorite in
most games,
bettors looking to take the underdog can simply wait until the line has been artificially inflated and place their wager at a more favorable number.
This simple strategy encourages
bettors to identify the
most popular teams and bet against them; thereby capitalizing on artificially inflated lines created by
public perception.
This strategy involves taking favorites that are being ignored by a majority of
bettors — especially in the
most heavily bet games where
public money is more likely to artificially inflate the spread.
This is one of the
most bet games of the week and
public bettors could inflate the line on Bama, but only about 60 % of tickets are taking the Crimson Tide right now, so books set a good number where they'd attract some Aggies bets.
Although we constantly talk about the value of betting against the
public, one of the
most popular strategies for
bettors is the 80 - 20 betting system.
-- Michigan State - Oregon was by far the
most bet game of the day with
public bettors on MSU (2.5:1 ticket count according to David Purdum) but sharper money on Oregon.
Public bettors are probably kicking themselves now because they've been the
most profitable team in the entire league, going 7 - 1 for +8.49 units on the moneyline and breaking expansion team records along the way.
Last week was solid for
public bettors as the
most lopsided bet teams went 4 - 2.
This indicates that
most sportsbooks have likely been taking big money from sharp
bettors on Pittsburgh to counter the influx of
public / square money on Indianapolis.
These are typically two of the
most trendy teams for
bettors, but we wanted to know how
public betting in the Tobacco Road Rivalry compared to every other game.
It's also worth noting that the Red Sox are consistently one of the
most popular teams amongst casual
bettors, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the moneyline shaded to account for
public money — especially in Sale's first few starts of the season.
It's worth noting that
public bettors overwhelmingly like taking favorites, which explains why
most of our contrarian strategies focusing on underdogs.
Based on our proprietary betting trends data, the following sides are the
most popular among
public NFL
bettors:
His
most recent performance has really turned away
public bettors, as the Steelers are only getting 21 % of bets so far.
Since
most of the teams at the top of the standings have been there all season long,
public bettors feel good about putting some cash down on them and sportsbooks are juicing up the lines big time.
Contrarian
bettors can realize added value by exploiting moneylines that have been artificially inflated based on
public betting, however,
most sportsbooks don't take enough
public money on totals to justify any line movement.
That said, it's clear
bettors should be following the sharp action and betting against the
public in the days
most heavily bet games.
Primetime games receive the
most public action and casual
bettors like wagering on favorites.
Most teams won't get
public support because they have burned
bettors.
Using our proprietary betting and money percentage data, we've broken down three of today's
most popular plays among
public bettors.
Using the proprietary betting data available at The Action Network, we've identified tonight's three
most popular wagers among
public bettors.
It was not profitable to bet against the
public (< 50 % of bets) in all games: 25 -32-2 (43.9 %) ATS but fading casual
bettors in the
most popular games on Saturday went 3 - 0 ATS.
The Mets (10 - 1, +8.38 units) have been the
most profitable team for
bettors this season, so of course the
public is riding them once again.
Why the
public will love Oklahoma City: With their starpower, the Thunder, like the Celtics, attract
public bettors on
most nights.
Betting against the
public (< 50 % of bets) in all games went just 29 - 30 (49.2 %) ATS but focusing on the
most popular matchups contrarian
bettors went 4 - 1 ATS with only Oklahoma cashing.
With this influx of
public money hitting the market, oddsmakers react by shading their opening lines to the «
public side» in anticipation that recreational
bettors will overwhelmingly, and sometimes blindly, bet the favorites in
most matchups.