The key science question for citizens and their representatives is not
whether most recent warming is man - made but whether climate change, as Al Gore HAS put it, is a «planetary emergency... that threatens the survival of civilization and the habitability of the Earth.»
Analysis has shown that most the glacial retreat at Kilimanjaro occurred before 1953 (and therefore
before most recent warming) and that the retreat has more to do with moisture in the air than with global warming.
One of the main planks of the argument that CRF is responsible for
the most recent warming is based on figure 14b in Veizer (2005), where there appears to be a trend in CRF from eg Climax neutron monitor (also, see plots at this URL).
In fact, the CRF curves presented by some of the key cosmic - ray hypothesis proponents, Marsh & Svensmark, do not exhibit any trend, yet it has been claimed that CRF is responsible for
the most recent warming (Marsh & Svensmark say that the wiggles correlate, but don't discuss the [or lack of] observed trends).
This led the study to conclude,»... during these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least
this most recent warming episode must have another source.»
Moreover, the lack of trend in GCR is also consistent with little long - term change in other solar proxies, such as sunspot number and the solar cycle length, since the 1960s, when
the most recent warming started.
One of the main planks of the argument that CRF is responsible for
the most recent warming is based on figure 14b in Veizer (2005), where there appears to be a trend in CRF from eg Climax neutron monitor (also, see plots at this URL).
In fact, the CRF curves presented by some of the key cosmic - ray hypothesis proponents, Marsh & Svensmark, do not exhibit any trend, yet it has been claimed that CRF is responsible for
the most recent warming (Marsh & Svensmark say that the wiggles correlate, but don't discuss the [or lack of] observed trends).
«The enormous evidence base that you cite does not preclude other factors causing
the most recent warming.»
The enormous evidence base that you cite does not preclude other factors causing
the most recent warming and whilst you are right that there is a lot of knowledge about paleo climate I have yet to see anything that comes close to proof that C02 changes are the main factor in those.
There maybe many reasons for the cooling and for
the most recent warming of which human emissions are likely to be a contributory factor.
It argued that mainstream researchers ignore evidence that counters the consensus that
most recent warming is down to human activity.
The phasing of warm events in the two regions is also variable, with some warm extremes in phase (1940 — 42, 1997 — 98), some with the tropics leading the CCS (1982 — 83, 1991 — 92), and
the most recent warm extreme from 2014 — 16 where the CCS warming peaked about one year prior to the peak tropical El Niño warming.
Regardless, we seem to agree on
the most recent warming being pronouned and anthropogenic, which I think is the more important conclusion.
Coby said: Regardless, we seem to agree on
the most recent warming being pronouned and anthropogenic, which I think is the more important conclusion.
(In a report in 2007, the panel concluded with near certainty that
most recent warming had been caused by humans.)