The moving average system is one such possibility.
An investor could use the ETF Replay ranking system similar to the momentum and
moving average system detailed above.
The buy and hold performance for 2013 is below, with a 10 month
moving average system using the buy and hold allocated percentages - as opposed to equal weight - in the second graphic:
If Fabian the son had simply followed the 39 - week
moving average system to switch between an index fund and cash, since 1992 his newsletter would have produced a profit more than two percentage points per year higher than it actually did.
Fabian the father did not claim that the 39 - week
moving average system was perfect, but he strongly recommended that we adhere to some mechanical system.
What if I told you there was an incredibly simple
moving average system that crushed buy and hold investing?
Basically, the Alligator is a multiple displaced
moving average system.
The 10 month simple
moving average system has been popularized in recent years by Mebane Faber in The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets.
The performance for the 10 month
moving average system within the 4 ETF permanent portfolio is below.
The moving average system's CAGR suffered the most with bond funds and did the best with equity funds:
Holding only 2 ETFs increases portfolio volatility, which should be expected, but did not necessarily increase returns versus buy and hold or the 10 month simple
moving average system.
The results for a 10 month
moving average system on the 8 ETF Permanent portfolio are below (2008 - present).
How has a simple 10 month
moving average system performed within this portfolio?
The 10 month
moving average system lowered the volatility of the portfolio to 7.1 % and drawdown to 7.1 % but had slightly lower overall returns than simply buying and holding the portfolio.
When we apply the 10 month
moving average system to the Emerging Markets version (EEM / SHY / TLT / GLD), we see the same impact, a decrease in returns and volatility and an increase in the portfolios sharpe ratio:
My suggestion for using
a moving average system was inspried in part by Mebane Faber's The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets and also by Tom Lydon, author of The ETF Trend Following Playbook: Profiting from Trends in Bull or Bear Markets with Exchange Traded Funds.
When we test the 10 month
moving average system we see is that the
moving average system decreased volatility and returns while increasing the sharpe ratio:
When we apply the 10 month
moving average system to the Emerging Markets version (EEM / SHY / TLT / GLD), we see the same impact, a decrease in returns and volatility and an increase in the portfolios sharpe ratio:
The results for a 10 month
moving average system on the 8 ETF Permanent portfolio are below (2008 - present).
In my original article I also tested the 10 month
moving average system popularized in recent years by Mebane Faber in The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets.
Holding only 2 ETFs increases portfolio volatility, which should be expected, but did not necessarily increase returns versus buy and hold or the 10 month simple
moving average system.
How has a simple 10 month
moving average system performed within this portfolio?
To properly test
the moving average system I had to begin the test at the beginning of 2006 since GLD did not have adequate trading history to generate a 10 month moving average in 2005.
The 10 month
moving average system lowered the volatility of the portfolio to 7.1 % and drawdown to 7.1 % but had slightly lower overall returns than simply buying and holding the portfolio.
The performance for the 10 month
moving average system within the 4 ETF permanent portfolio is below.
Reacting to price support and resistance levels, technical trading signals, chart patterns, and using
moving average systems is reactive technical analysis.
You can easily build cross-over
moving average systems with this indicator.
Not exact matches
If the NASDAQ manages to finish above its 50 - day
moving average this week, our market timing
system may shift back to a «buy» signal (subscribers of our nightly trading newsletter will be instantly notified if / when we re-enter «buy» mode).
Yes, we have seen a few market leaders break down, such as 3d
Systems Corp ($ DDD) or Ocwen Financial Group ($ OCN), but the majority of leading individual stocks are still holding above their 50 - day
moving averages and trending higher (or forming bullish basing patterns).
In most cases the charting
system is basing
moving averages on unadjusted data.
It is estimated the
average annual energy demand to operate the snowmaking
system will drop by more than 2 million kilowatt hours (kWh)
moving forward; an unprecedented improvement only made possible by the single largest snow gun delivery in Mount Snow's history.
The report recommends police forces
move away from a final salary to a career -
average system, the raising of standard retirement age to 60 and, in the longer term, the design of a whole new scheme for dealing with police pensions.
The planet
moves around 54 Piscium at an
average separation of 0.28 AUs, which would be within the orbit of Mercury in the Solar
System.
The planet
moves between 1.7 and 2.5 AUs in orbital distance around Errai A, with an
average separation of around 1.8 AUs, which would be between the orbital distance of Earth and Mars in the Solar
System.
The
average orbital distance of planet «b» from this star is 0.080 AU and so it could have liquid water on its surface, although it
moves arount its host star well within the orbital distance of Mercury in the Solar
System.
Even if 1 in every 10 of these graduates entered teaching for two years (
average tenure at KIPP - like No Excuses charter schools) before
moving onto other careers, they would provide only 6 percent of the some 450,000 teachers currently working in the member districts of the Council of Great City Schools (the nations 66 largest urban public - school
systems).
Now if you consider what the costs might be, both financial and nonfinancial, to your school
system if you
average 24 percent of your teachers
moving out of buildings each and every year.
To make all learners successful, we must
move away from a
system that teaches to the
average and adopt an approach that is tailored to the needs and strengths of each individual learner.
Our staff's outstanding level of commitment enabled us to upgrade student performance on the difficult MCAS (Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment
System) assessments,
moving from well below the state
average to the top 7 percent in language arts and the top 17 percent in mathematics (despite a per - pupil expenditure 18 percent below the state
average).
«What's important to know is that we've
moved from a year - by - year warning list
system under Barbara, to a two - year rolling
average system proposed under Forrest,» said Andrew Broy, head of the Illinois Network of Charter Schools.
As an example of a
system, you can look at Babak's method using distance of the VIX from its 50 - day
moving average.
One other way, that most people don't have the time for or don't want to do because it is a pain in the butt... if the market keeps
moving like this, a simple
moving average cross
system using «some» time frame, used to «just follow price», buying / selling as price
moves above / below the MA cross, works very well, using a stock index ETF or the futures.
I often get questions from people who are looking at a
moving average on a charting
system which does not exactly align with the signals listed on this site.
A careful active investor could more safely now contemplate no more than a small allocation to a mechanical
system with a
moving average (e. g., a 150 - day mean would have worked, but with 0 days» margin of error when the price dropped below the MA before the closing bell on Feb 5) or use more sophisticated volatility signals to be in or out of SVXY (perhaps giving some extra days» warning to get out).
one can use Donchian breakouts, Channel breakouts including standard deviation breakouts,
moving average concepts ranging from double to triple
moving averages, macd
systems as well as Stochastic concepts.
Each trader must decide how to incorporate
moving averages into their own
system and time frame.
Legendary trend trading pioneer Richard Donchian used a five and twenty day
moving average cross over
system for buy and sell signals.
A QTWO simple trading
system based on the QTWO
moving average would state to sell when QTWO price drops below its MA and to buy when QTWO price
moves above its MA.
This rule requires that the
moving average of the short period (L1) of the closed equity curve must be greater than the
moving average of the longer period (L2) closed equity curve.This is similar to a
moving average crossover strategy based on price data in the market except that we use the
moving average of the equity curve and require that it is «up» in order to take trades in the
system.
For long mean reversion
systems, Larry Connors and I used Close greater than 5 Day simple
moving average.