When SPY is below its 200 day
moving average the portfolio is long the 15 stocks and holds an equal short position in SPY («100 % Hedged»).
Not exact matches
The percentage each ETF within the Ivy 10 and Ivy 5
Portfolio is above or below the current 10 month simple
moving average is now provided.
The performance for the 10 month
moving average system within the 4 ETF permanent
portfolio is below.
The 10 month
moving average system lowered the volatility of the
portfolio to 7.1 % and drawdown to 7.1 % but had slightly lower overall returns than simply buying and holding the
portfolio.
In order to properly compare strategies (
moving average vs. buy and hold) we first need to show the results for buying and holding the
portfolios over the same time period of 2006 - present (
portfolio A is the Emerging Markets version, Portfolio B is the o
portfolio A is the Emerging Markets version,
Portfolio B is the o
Portfolio B is the original):
Since the first buy and hold test started in 2005, it is fair to compare the 10 month
moving average returns to buying and holding the same
portfolio from 2006 - February 13th, 2012:
How has a simple 10 month
moving average system performed within this
portfolio?
Holding only 2 ETFs increases
portfolio volatility, which should be expected, but did not necessarily increase returns versus buy and hold or the 10 month simple
moving average system.
In my original article I also tested the 10 month
moving average system popularized in recent years by Mebane Faber in The Ivy
Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets.
One of my favorite tools for potentially reducing
portfolio volatility and drawdown is to use the 10 month simple moving average strategy, popularized in recent years by Mebane Faber in The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear
portfolio volatility and drawdown is to use the 10 month simple
moving average strategy, popularized in recent years by Mebane Faber in The Ivy
Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear
Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets.
The results for a 10 month
moving average system on the 8 ETF Permanent
portfolio are below (2008 - present).
By using a long - term
moving average signal, we could potentially reduce
portfolio drawdown created when any one of the holdings enters a bear market.
When we apply the 10 month
moving average system to the Emerging Markets version (EEM / SHY / TLT / GLD), we see the same impact, a decrease in returns and volatility and an increase in the
portfolios sharpe ratio:
When an ETF in the
portfolio was below its 10 month
moving average at month - end, the position was sold and held in «cash» (SHY was used as the cash position).
When an ETF in the
portfolio was below its 10 month
moving average at month - end, the position was sold and held in «cash» (SHY was used as a substitute for cash).
We consider as benchmarks: an equally weighted
portfolio of all mutual funds, rebalanced monthly (EW All); buying and holding VTSMX; and, holding VTSMX when the S&P 500 Index is above its 10 - month simple
moving average (SMA10) and Cash when the index is below its SMA10 (VTSMX: SMA10).
For benchmarks, they consider the value - weighted market
portfolio (VW), the equal - weighted market
portfolio (EW), the minimum variance
portfolio (MVP) and a maximum Sharpe ratio
portfolio based on 5 - year
moving average actual returns (HIST).
Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security
portfolios that have trading signals based on long - term
moving averages.
I have added a new tool to the site for those interested in tracking the 10 month
moving average signals for some of the
portfolios listed in Faber's book.
The ETF will shift half of the
portfolio into an inverse S&P 500 fund when the S&P ends a month below its 200 - day
moving average.
Last week different tactical approaches (momentum,
moving average) to the Permanent
Portfolio were detailed here.
My suggestion for using a
moving average system was inspried in part by Mebane Faber's The Ivy
Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets and also by Tom Lydon, author of The ETF Trend Following Playbook: Profiting from Trends in Bull or Bear Markets with Exchange Traded Funds.
Using the beta stockscreen123 I backtested the Tiny Titans
portfolio only when the Russell 2000 was above its 200 day
moving average.
All of the securities in the 5 and 10 ETF
portfolios are above their 10 month
moving averages.
The percentage each ETF within the Ivy 10 and Ivy 5
Portfolio is above or below the current 10 month simple
moving average is now provided.
For the first 10 month
moving average test we will revisit the original Harry Browne ETF
Portfolio (SPY / SHY / TLT / GLD).
Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security
portfolios that have trading signals based on long - term
moving averages.
In order to properly compare strategies (
moving average vs. buy and hold) we first need to show the results for buying and holding the
portfolios over the same time period of 2006 - present (
portfolio A is the Emerging Markets version, Portfolio B is the o
portfolio A is the Emerging Markets version,
Portfolio B is the o
Portfolio B is the original):
When we apply the 10 month
moving average system to the Emerging Markets version (EEM / SHY / TLT / GLD), we see the same impact, a decrease in returns and volatility and an increase in the
portfolios sharpe ratio:
When an ETF in the
portfolio was below its 10 month
moving average at month - end, the position was sold and held in «cash» (SHY was used as a substitute for cash).
The Ivy
Portfolio spreadsheet track the 10 month
moving average signals for two
portfolios listed in Mebane Faber's book The Ivy
Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets.
You liquidate your
portfolio if the market falls below say the 10 - month simple
moving average or something (see, for example, A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation)?
Below are the 10 year results if we are 100 % long the 15 stocks in the
portfolio when SPY is above its 200 day simple
moving average.
The backtest results for the Ivy 5
Portfolio since 2007 and 10 month simple
moving average with a monthly update are charted below.
This document tracks the 10 month
moving averages for three different
portfolios designed for TD Ameritrade, Fidelity, and Vanguard commission - free ETF offers.
For example, the Ivy
Portfolio uses a 10 month
moving average to dictate an invested or cash position (signals are updated daily at Scott's Investments and many equity indices are currently very near their 10 month
average).
Below are the 10 month
moving average signals (using adjusted price data) for the commission - free
portfolios:
What if, like some of my other momentum and tactical
portfolios, we only held the ETFs in the
portfolio when they were above their 10 month
moving average?
The 10 month
moving average system lowered the volatility of the
portfolio to 7.1 % and drawdown to 7.1 % but had slightly lower overall returns than simply buying and holding the
portfolio.
How has a simple 10 month
moving average system performed within this
portfolio?
The results for a 10 month
moving average system on the 8 ETF Permanent
portfolio are below (2008 - present).
Holding only 2 ETFs increases
portfolio volatility, which should be expected, but did not necessarily increase returns versus buy and hold or the 10 month simple
moving average system.
The performance for the 10 month
moving average system within the 4 ETF permanent
portfolio is below.
The 10 month simple
moving average system has been popularized in recent years by Mebane Faber in The Ivy
Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets.
Second, we would further preserve capital in
portfolios if a technical breach occurred in the 10 - month simple
moving average; that is, if the monthly close on the 10 - month SMA is below its trendline, we shift a much greater percentage to the safe harbor of money market accounts and other cash equivalents.
When an ETF in the
portfolio was below its 10 month
moving average at month - end, the position was sold and held in «cash» (SHY was used as the cash position).
ETF Replay is a site that provides free backtesting for ETFs using
moving averages,
moving average crossovers, and a free ETF
portfolio back test function.
The timing
portfolio is invested in the asset when the adjusted close price is greater than or equal to the
moving average, otherwise the
portfolio is invested in cash.
So following up on our last «chat» I researched UTX a bit more and thought it would be an interesting addition to my
portfolio — put in a buy @ $ 98 which is right above their 40 week
moving average so we'll see how things play out over the next few weeks.
There are a variety of variations that can be applied to this
portfolio (
moving averages, momentum, risk - parity weighting, additional holdings within each asset class, etc.).