Not exact matches
Data gathered at a site near Tsukuba, Japan, show that
about a third of stratospheric
aerosols —
much of them from small volcanoes — sit below 15 kilometers.
Using climate models and data collected
about aerosols and meteorology over the past 30 years, the researchers found that air pollution over Asia —
much of it coming from China — is impacting global air circulations.
That said, in a trivial and largely irrelevant way, your assertions
about how
much impact a reduction in
aerosol concentrations can have have some truth to them.
If industry - generated
aerosols have a more limited cooling effect than originally thought, we can clean up and scale down dirty coal plants without worrying too
much about consequent sudden jumps in global temperatures of up to 2 degrees C (if I remember the upper limits of earlier studies correctly).
It strikes me that the Arctic data also reflects the northern hemisphere accumulation of
aerosols, while the Antarctic data is
much less affected by
aerosols, which we know affected NH temperatures from
about 1940 - 1975.
Much of the text I took
about the
aerosol issue was straight from the IPCC report.
I'd be curious if anyone knows how
much they thought
about the question of volcanic («natural») vs anthropic
aerosols.
Sadly, I don't know
much about this debate over the duration of volcanic
aerosol effects.
I suspect that the effect of doubling CO2 will be less than 2C and that
much more will be learned
about clouds, other
aerosols, and the sun in the next 20 years.
«
About» ought to be in italics because we really don't know how
much cooling is caused by other emissions, like particulate
aerosols that go up the smokestack along with the carbon dioxide.
I am sure that one could be more systematic along the lines of the fingerprinting literature (but
much of this literature assumes more
about the
aerosol forcing time dependence than I would prefer).
The total CO2 equivalent (CO2 - eq) concentration of all long - lived GHGs is currently estimated to be
about 455 ppm CO2 - eq, although the effect of
aerosols, other air pollutants and land - use change reduces the net effect to levels ranging from 311 to 435 ppm CO2 - eq (high agreement,
much evidence).
In fact, I don't think I have
much to argue
about your initial post but it does relate directly to the famous issue of the 40s - 70s global cooling, and the alleged
aerosols explanation.
I don't know
much about OHU but I happen to live in the vicinity of a city with very frequent pollution episodes associated to winter thermal inversions so I do have a feeling for the direct
aerosols / temperature relationship.
There remains some uncertainty
about how
much decadal variability of GMST that is attributed to AMO in some studies is actually related to forcing, notably from
aerosols.
The annual average is
about 0.25 of the peak — but you expect as well that the reflected SW would not vary as
much as you suggest albedo of oceans being influenced by «solar zenith angle, wind speed, transmission by atmospheric cloud /
aerosol, and ocean chlorophyll concentration.»
In
about ten years both ocean heat accumulation and atmospheric
aerosol effects should be
much better defined (assuming that the Glory Mission finally launches successfully).
Answer: The forcing of greenhouse gases is counteracted by
about 1 Watt / m2 of
aerosols, leaving us with 1.5 W / m2 or thereabouts, or less than half that of a doubling of CO2 (3.7 W / m2), and thermal inertia cuts that by half again for the high end sensitivities, and not
much of a cut is required for the low end sensitivites (1.5 C times fraction of forcing 1.5 / 3.7 giving
about 0.6 C).