Not exact matches
I was interested not so
much in the forcing effect of clouds themselves so
much as the
change in
albedo which might result from a
change in the overall extent of global cloud cover.
The
change in ice volume and climate
changes the planets
albedo (how
much sunlight is reflected) and affect carbon storage.
Pretty
much all existing GCMs take into account
changes in cloud
albedo effects (though these are still characterized by a fairly high level of uncertainty).
I've been told by a friend that James Hansen once said that
albedo changes from melting the arctic sea ice would capture as
much additional heat as doubling CO2.
It would appear that the remaining contributor would be light, an interesting aspect to research may be how
much would the quantity of life
change in the region, if the
albedo changes?
The Arctic sea ice melting out above 75N would have almost no impact at all if that is the forcing
change of glaciers down to Chicago and sea ice down to 45N (at lower latitudes where the
Albedo has
much more impact).
What other things in the Earth system will
change when it warms up that will affect how
much SW radiation is reflected back into space [eg ice -
albedo feedback, cloud
changes] or affect what proportion of emitted LW radiation is allowed to escape to space [eg Water Vapour, cloud
changes].
http://www.springerlink.com/content/lm0024kv72t3841w/ «The simulated magnitude of hydrological
changes over land are
much larger when compared to
changes over oceans in the recent marine cloud
albedo enhancement study since the radiative forcing over land needed (− 8.2 W m − 2) to counter global mean radiative forcing from a doubling of CO2 (3.3 W m − 2) is approximately twice the forcing needed over the oceans (− 4.2 W m − 2).
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional
changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the
albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents
much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the
albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
In their latest Science paper submittal Jim Hansen, et al. argue that we must reduce atmospheric CO2 to below 350 ppm because so - called «slow feedbacks» such as
changes in ice sheet
albedo are occurring
much faster than expected.
As a result, the
changes in ice area don't make that
much of a
change in overall all
albedo.
AGW climate scientists seem to ignore that while the earth's surface may be warming, our atmosphere above 10,000 ft. above MSL is a refrigerator that can take water vapor scavenged from the vast oceans on earth (which are also a formidable heat sink), lift it to cold zones in the atmosphere by convective physical processes, chill it (removing vast amounts of heat from the atmosphere) or freeze it, (removing even more vast amounts of heat from the atmosphere) drop it on land and oceans as rain, sleet or snow, moisturizing and cooling the soil, cooling the oceans and building polar ice caps and even more importantly, increasing the
albedo of the earth, with a critical negative feedback determining how
much of the sun's energy is reflected back into space,
changing the moment of inertia of the earth by removing water mass from equatorial latitudes and transporting this water vapor mass to the poles, reducing the earth's spin axis moment of inertia and speeding up its spin rate, etc..
Dr Curry, When considering
changes in
albedo due to melting, pools, etc, is there also consideration that the Sun is very low in the sky and
much of the incoming Solar is reflected off water as glare?
But unless the
albedo changes quite a lot there's not usually
much effect on average temperatures.
But
much stronger
albedo effects (a measure of how
much sunlight is simply reflected back out into space) might be generated by the high winds of the glacial era, giving 10 °C temperature
changes rather than the 1 °C excursion of the Little Ice Age.
Given that the blackbody equilibrium temperature of earth as seen from space is a function of solar irradiance arriving and earth
albedo and not
much of anything else apart from factors that
change those two, anyone claiming earth's temperature isn't affected by solar output better have a pretty good theory and data to support that.
This is the limit imposed by
albedo which can only
change so
much with the current arrangement of the continents.
Pielke seniors thing is that land use
changes leadto
albedo changes which lead to more heat absorbed, so actually the warming isn't
much to do with CO2 and so there isn't
much of a problem.
There are indications that
albedo changes by as
much as 1 % a year, with a few years»
change in the same direction dwarfing anything proposed for the greenhouse effect.
How
much did the
Albedo of the Earth
change due to that
much land being replaced by ice cover — as a forcing in W / M ^ 2.
That the insolation
change was enough to warm the NH while it had a lower
albedo is an indication of how
much it matters.
This leads me to believe that CO2 forcing is a minor component of the temperature rise (even Hansen in his paper «Global Warming in the 21st century, an Alternative Scenario» has assigned
much warming to e.g. black carbon, methane etc, and an inquisitive mind might easily think of others such as
albedo change).
Really the big question for me, once aware of all in http://s24.postimg.org/rbbws9o85/overview.gif and
much else, is whether or not coming cooling in the 21st century will end with a somewhat brief LIA - like event, or, via amplification of cooling through further
albedo change from snow cover rise then, continue far longer into a non-little Ice Age afterwards..
Even if it were possible for greenhouse gases to increase that
much — it pales in comparison to
albedo changes.
Albedo change due to LGM — Holocene vegetation change, much of which is inherent with ice sheet area change, and albedo change due to coastline movement are lumped together with ice sheet area change in calculating the surface albedo climate fo
Albedo change due to LGM — Holocene vegetation
change,
much of which is inherent with ice sheet area
change, and
albedo change due to coastline movement are lumped together with ice sheet area change in calculating the surface albedo climate fo
albedo change due to coastline movement are lumped together with ice sheet area
change in calculating the surface
albedo climate fo
albedo climate forcing.
Being an ocean, the Arctic ice is a
much less stable system because it is subject to positive feedback from the
albedo change, while the Antarctic
albedo can stay quite fixed, so it is not going to have this positive feedback.
See how
much of this
change is attributed to greenhouse gases,
albedo (i.
That's a pretty silly claim on Dr. Curry's part if you consider that in the months the arctic sea ice isn't diminished, there's never really so
much sunlight as you'd count it against the average, so whatever
albedo changes there are during the half of the year that matters, they're when the sun is at its highest angle.
The three studies, using different methodologies to estimate the global surface
albedo feedback associated with snow and sea ice
changes, all suggest that this feedback is positive in all the models, and that its range is
much smaller than that of cloud feedbacks.
And I think you hit the nail on the head with: «5) Once we scientifically - oriented Skeptics accept the reality of the Atmospheric «greenhouse effect» we are, IMHO, better positioned to question the
much larger issues which are: a) HOW MUCH does CO2 contribute to that effect, b) HOW MUCH does human burning of fossil fuels and land use changes that reduce albedo affect warming, and, perhaps most important, c) Does the resultant enhanced CO2 level and higher mean temperature actually have a net benefit for humankind?&ra
much larger issues which are: a) HOW
MUCH does CO2 contribute to that effect, b) HOW MUCH does human burning of fossil fuels and land use changes that reduce albedo affect warming, and, perhaps most important, c) Does the resultant enhanced CO2 level and higher mean temperature actually have a net benefit for humankind?&ra
MUCH does CO2 contribute to that effect, b) HOW
MUCH does human burning of fossil fuels and land use changes that reduce albedo affect warming, and, perhaps most important, c) Does the resultant enhanced CO2 level and higher mean temperature actually have a net benefit for humankind?&ra
MUCH does human burning of fossil fuels and land use
changes that reduce
albedo affect warming, and, perhaps most important, c) Does the resultant enhanced CO2 level and higher mean temperature actually have a net benefit for humankind?»
But if climate really is as insensitive as he claims it to be, the climate forcing producing the ice ages must have been huge,
much larger than the radiative forcing from orbital
changes, surface
albedo, and greenhouse gases.