Lower rates have allowed for
much higher stock valuations.
Not exact matches
«Consumer
stocks have had a good run, and there's only so
much you can buy of Loblaw or other
stocks that have run up to
valuations that are quite
high.»
While
stocks were able to levitate at
high valuations last year, volatility was
much lower.
The MSCI Global Gold Miners Index has rallied an incredible 76 % this year, but
much of the performance is due to the recovery in
valuations: According to Bloomberg data, gold miner
stocks were battered last year, with the index down 45 % from its 2015
high.
Valuations are
much higher in the U.S. right now than in most foreign
stock markets.
Coupling that lower
valuation on the company's earnings with the
much higher current yield leads to a lot of upside, along with what could be more near - term and long - term income from the
stock.
As usual, I don't place too
much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for
stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already
high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at
higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
With one week left in April I decided to deploy some fresh capital into a market that has been very, very generous as of late in terms of giving us
much better buying opportunities in many «name brand»
stocks that have been previously deemed untouchable because of low yields,
high valuations and relatively speaking,
high prices.
While
stocks were able to levitate at
high valuations last year, volatility was
much lower.
By pretty
much all measures, it offers access to
higher growth rates at lower
valuations than the average European
stock fund does.
However, if it were somehow known that rates would * permanently * stay as low as they currently are then
stocks would logically be priced
much much higher than their current
valuations.
In that sense all analysis of
stock market based on historical metrics do nt make
much sense since composition of
stocks is entirely different in different era and as more capital efficient business model evolve and their time to market cycle shrinks
stocks likely to command
higher valuations and suddenly lower
valuations during short period of time like already happening for many technology companies and as influence of technology on overall cost structure of companies increases (for example: robotics replace many of employees cost etc)
valuation matrix of most companies likely to get affected dynamically in short duration of time than in the past.
It's not about paying up now because market
valuations are
much higher, or due to a dearth of ideas / value — it simply reflects the fact that certain
stocks / companies are worth paying up for, while others clearly aren't.
DIS sports
much higher dividend growth (as I pointed out in the article and
valuation analysis) than many other
stocks with
higher yields.
If I'd been able to magic up a Dec - 31st
valuation for all TGISVP
stocks, the benchmark return would be far
higher at +16.7 % — but presumably Portfolio returns would be that
much higher too.
Panics still happen but they don't hurt you
much (panics always begin at times of insanely
high prices and those following a
Valuation - Informed Indexing strategy have little invested in
stocks at such times).
This consideration is important for all P / B bargain
stocks, if you are faced with negative net income / cashflow situations you need to more aggressively discount your Fair Value to reflect this, and of course realize this creates a
much higher hurdle to closing any perceived
valuation gap.
Meanwhile, the historical data really doesn't provide
much in the way of examples for times when both
stock valuations were
high while bond yields were simultaneously low.