So, it's quite likely that the next IPCC report will have
much larger error bars on its estimates of future temperature or precipitation, compared with AR4.
Not exact matches
This actually widens the
error bars so
much that for
large aerosol forcings, you can not rule out even zero climate sensitivity.
While it is true that, holding everything else equal, an increase in how
much cooling was associated with aerosols would lead to an increase in the estimate of climate sensitivity, the
error bars are too
large for this to be
much of a constraint.
We know how
much radiation comes from the sun, and we know the effects of CO2, but there are pretty
large error bars on aerosols that this mission could help with.
Because if you don't believe the instrumental temperature record, then why even bother to attempt a very
much less accurate method of reconstruction, where the
error bars are most likely
larger than the reconstructed time series itself?
I imagine the
error bars are almost as
large as the delta, so while the calculations would reveal interesting possibilities they probably wouldn't tell us that
much for sure.